Cal vs. Stanford Odds, Preview, Picks, and Prediction for Saturday, November 22, 2025
On Saturday, the Stanford Cardinal will host the California Golden Bears in a Week 13 NCAAF game at Stanford Stadium. The Atlantic Coast Conference matchup is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Golden Bears are three-point spread favorites, and the total is 47 points scored.
This Cal vs. Stanford prediction highlights a Golden Bears team that's 3-3 in ACC competition (10th place) and 3-2 on the road, and a Cardinal squad that's 2-5 in conference play (14th place) and 3-1 at home this season. The Cal-Stanford rivalry, known as "The Big Game," dates back to 1892. Saturday's matchup marks the 128th all-time meeting between the former Pac-12 opponents on the gridiron. Stanford leads the series 65–51–11, but California has won four straight, toppling the Cardinal 24-21 last season.
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Expect Cal to score plenty of points
Cal (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS, and 5-4-1 O/U) was on a bye last week. The Golden Bears beat Louisville 29-26 in their previous game, snapping a two-game losing skid. The thrilling overtime road win over the 15th-ranked Cardinals clinched Cal's bowl eligibility. The Golden Bears outgained the home team 427-351, as freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele passed for 323 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner on a gusty fourth-down play call. The Cal defense also came up big, forcing an interception and holding Louisville to 6-for-17 on third-down plays.
“I mean a lot of guys (were) down," Cal coach Justin Wilcox said of his injury-riddled defense. “I’m just proud of the guys that came in there and fought. The DBs made some key plays in the game. Those corners were getting competitive, making tackles, obviously, they had the big pick. We were plus one in the turnover margin, which was big.”
Sagapolutele leads California with 2,518 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He has completed 61.5 percent of his passes, averaging 6.9 yards per attempt. A few other Golden Bears to watch this weekend against Stanford are junior RB Kendrick Raphael (167 carries for 695 yards and 11 TDs), senior WR Jacob De Jesus (73 receptions for 699 yards and four TDs), and senior WR Trond Grizzell (36 receptions for 565 yards and one TD).
Cal scores 25.0 points per game (84th) and averages 341.9 total yards (105th), including 263.5 passing yards (36th) and 78.4 rushing yards (134th). The Golden Bears' defense allows 25.2 points (73rd) and 354.9 total yards (53rd) per game, including 199.2 passing yards (42nd) and 155.7 rushing yards (82nd).
Cal Golden Bears Football Injury Report:
- LB Cade Uluave (Bears' leading tackler) is questionable. He last played on Nov. 1 vs Virginia.
- DL T.J. Bollers (34 tackles) is questionable.
- DB Isaiah Crosby (24 tackles and 3 PBUs) is questionable.
- DB Aiden Manutai (27 tackles) is questionable.
- Second-leading rusher LJ Johnson Jr. is questionable. He last played on Oct. 17 vs UNC.
- OL Lamar Robinson, who has received some playing time at center, is questionable.
Stanford has struggled against the pass
Stanford (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS, and 5-5 O/U) is coming off a bye week. The Cardinal lost 20-15 at North Carolina in Week 11, its third straight ACC loss and fourth in the last five. It was a disappointing setback, as Stanford outgained UNC but committed two costly turnovers. Both teams struggled to run the football, as the Cardinal averaged 1.0 yards per carry and the Tar Heels averaged 1.9. The home team's defense relentlessly pressured Stanford freshman QB Elijah Brown, sacking him nine times.
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“I'm really happy with how Elijah fought back,” Cardinal coach Frank Reich said. “Obviously, some of the protection stuff, he was just trying to hold on. He didn't flinch; it didn't faze him.”
Brown recently took over Stanford's QB1 duties from senior Ben Gulbranson, who completed 56.9 percent of his passes for 1,813 yards with nine touchdowns and ten interceptions. The frosh has appeared in four games, but most of his action came in the last two weeks against Pittsburgh (10-for-14 passing for 108 yards and one TD) and North Carolina (27-for-39 for 284 yards with one TD and one INT). A few other Cardinal players to watch against Cal are senior WR CJ Williams (53 receptions for 659 yards and five TDs), senior TE Sam Roush (43 receptions for 458 yards and two scores), and sophomore RB Micah Ford (116 carries for 493 yards and three TDs).
The Cardinal score 17.5 points per game (129th) and average 307.4 total yards (122nd), including 231.5 passing yards (67th) and 75.9 rushing yards (135th). The Stanford defense surrenders 29.1 points (97th) and 407.7 total yards (102nd) per game, including 284.5 passing yards (134th) and 123.2 rushing yards (32nd).
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Stanford Cardinal Football Injury Report:
- No significant injuries for Saturday's game against Cal.
Cal vs. Stanford Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Cal vs. Stanford
- Golden Bears -3 (5 Units)
I side with Cal in Saturday's rivalry clash with Stanford. The Golden Bears will take advantage of their favorable field position in this matchup, as the Cardinal defense has allowed the third-most red zone trips (50) in the country this season. All of those looks at the end zone are tough to defend, and their opponents have found pay dirt on 39 of them. Stanford struggles against the pass, and its opponents have taken full advantage, with 107 passing plays of 10-plus yards (ninth-most) and 44 passing plays of 20-plus yards (fourth-most). That's a department California excels in, with the sixth-most passing plays of 20 or more yards.
This is also an ideal matchup for the Golden Bears' defense. Stanford averages just 2.4 yards per carry, and Cal fares well against the pass, ranking in the top 50 in opponent passing plays of 10-plus yards and 20-plus yards. With an inexperienced freshman at QB, the Cardinal offense will struggle to keep pace with the Golden Bears.
Over/Under Pick for Cal vs. Stanford
- Over 47 (4 Units)
I like this matchup for the Golden Bears' defense, but I don't see them overwhelming the Cardinal. I'm convinced both sides will score enough points to push the total over 47, as Cal hasn't exactly dominated defensively, allowing 32.4 PPG in its previous five games. Stanford isn't likely to generate a lot of points, but they won't get shut out, either. Brown is making just his third start, but he has completed a high percentage of his passes and taken good care of the ball. He won't pass for nearly 300 yards again this week, but he'll be servicable on Saturday.
I do expect Cal to dominate on offense, though. Stanford ranks 80th in third-down defense, as opponents have sustained long drives by routinely attacking the home team's secondary. The Golden Bears' passing attack is explosive, and they typically come away with touchdowns in the red zone (top 30 in TD%). I expect a big performance from Sagapolutele on Saturday.
Neither team has dominated the time of possession this season, and with both likely to air out the football, I anticipate plenty of possessions and scoring action. Bet on the over at 47!
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