California vs. San Diego State Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 20, 2025
Use Code WWWC California Golden Bears (3-0) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (1-1)
Week 4 of the 2025 college football season is upon us, and in this preview, we are breaking down the non-conference battle from Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, CA, to get you the California vs. San Diego State prediction.
The Golden Bears meet the Aztecs for the second straight season. Last year, California beat San Diego State 31-10 as an 18.5-point home fave, and the game flew under the 48.5-point total.
Read more about this California vs. SDSU prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 4 of the 2025 college football season. The Bears are 12.5-point road favorites with a total of 48.5 points.
California eyes its fourth straight victory
The California Golden Bears advanced to 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS on the season following a 27-14 home victory over the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Cal outgained Minnesota 340-335 in total yards and won the turnover battle, upsetting the odds as a 3-point home dog.
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The Golden Bears rushed for just 61 yards in Week 3. However, freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns, and the Bears took full advantage of Koi Perich’s muffed punt in the fourth quarter.
“None of it happens without the quarterback,” California coach Justin Wilcox said. “Jaron, he just continues to impress. His demeanor out there. Just his understanding of the offense and what we’re asking him to do. You all see the accuracy and the way he can throw the ball. He threw some amazing passes again tonight. It’s not all that surprising because we see it every day.”
Sagapolutele has thrown for 780 yards, six touchdowns, and an interception over the previous three weeks. Senior WR Jacob De Jesus has recorded 17 receptions for 149 yards and a touchdown, while sophomore TE Mason Mini has amassed 99 yards and two touchdowns on 13 catches. Junior RB Kendrick Raphael has 201 rushing yards and a TD on his season tally.
The Golden Bears beat Oregon State 34-15 in Week 1 and Texas Southern 35-3 in Week 2. California scores 32.0 points per game (tied for 60th in the country) and allows 10.7 points in return (19th). The Bears surrender just 82.3 rushing yards per game (tied for 18th).
San Diego State is coming off a bye
The San Diego State Aztecs (1-1; 1-1 ATS) had two weeks to prepare for Saturday’s clash against California. They hope to bounce back from a 36-13 road loss against the Washington State Cougars in Week 2. Back in Week 1, the Aztecs trounced the FCS Stony Brook Seawolves 42-0 in front of the home fans.
San Diego State racked up just 215 total yards in Week 2. The Aztecs went 2-for-13 on third down and completed just one of their four fourth-down attempts. Junior QB Jayden Denegal completed 15 of his 30 passing attempts for 133 yards and a touchdown, while junior RB Lucky Sutton posted 15 carries for 88 yards. Denegal scored once on his own, finishing with eight totes for minus-28 yards.
“Obviously not the results that anyone is looking for,” SDSU coach Sean Lewis said. “I got a lot of disappointed guys in the locker room because they know they could play better. You know, it's a good plan, but the Cougars executed better than us tonight.”
SDSU outgained Stony Brook 464-95 in total yards in Week 1, but it’s fair to say that clash against the Seawolves is not a proper benchmark. The Aztecs struggled to cope with the Cougars’ defense in Week 2 while yielding 396 total yards.
San Diego State scores 27.5 points per game (78th in the nation) and allows 18.0 points in return (tied for 47th). The Aztecs rank 103rd in the country in passing yards (184.5 per game) and 80th in rushing yards (155.0).
California vs. San Diego State Pick
Spread Pick for California vs. San Diego State
- California -12.5 (5 units)
The Golden Bears lean on their sturdy defense, which will make a difference once more. Last week, the Bears held the Golden Gophers to 14 points, and I expect their defensive unit to dominate the Aztecs.
I mentioned how good the Bears’ run defense has been thus far. The Aztecs will struggle to move the chains, so I’m backing California to win and cover. The Golden Bears will rely on their freshman star under center, as SDSU gave up 257 passing yards and three passing touchdowns last time out.
California has beaten the number in six of its previous eight showings on the road. On the other side, San Diego State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall and 3-5 ATS in its last eight outings at home as underdogs.
Over/Under Pick for California vs. San Diego State
- Under 48.5 (5 units)
I’m backing the Golden Bears to beat the Aztecs on the back of their defense. California’s defensive line has done a great job through the first three weeks of the season, and I expect the Aztecs’ offense to struggle in this matchup.
San Diego State needs a strong defensive performance in order to keep it close against California. I’m not sure that the Aztecs are capable of slowing the Bears’ passing offense down, but I doubt SDSU’s chances of scoring enough points to push the total over the line.
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