Colorado State vs Boise State Prediction and Pick, Saturday, November 22, 2025
Use Code WWWC It's Mountain West Conference football on Saturday evening, and we have a Colorado State vs Boise State prediction. Colorado State is having a rough 2-8 season, and they are 0-4 on the road. Boise State is looking to get back on track after losing their last two games. They are 6-4 on the year. If you want more winners, check out our college football picks and free winners in the other major sports.
Quick Picks and Prediction on Colorado State vs Boise State
Check out a quick pick with side and total if you're in a hurry.
- Boise State 31 - Colorado State 10
- Boise State -16.5
- Under 45.5
Colorado State vs Boise State Odds and Line Movement
Check out the odds, line movements, money lines and opening odds with totals from Colorado State vs Boise State.
Opening Odds for Colorado State vs Boise State
- Opening Odds: Boise State -16.5 (-110)
- Total: 45.5 (-110)
(odds from Draftkings)
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Colorado State vs Boise State Line Movement
- The total has stayed put at 45.5 (-110)
- The spread has stayed at Boise State -16.5 (-110)
Key Matchups for Colorado State vs Boise State
Curry Must Limit The Mistakes
For Colorado State, the focus is on quarterback Darius Curry and his receivers against Boise State’s secondary. Curry threw for 248 yards and two touchdowns against New Mexico, but also tossed three interceptions. The Rams average just 18 points per game (126th nationally), so efficiency is critical if they want to keep pace.
Boise State’s pass defense has been inconsistent, giving up 229.2 yards per game, but they’ve been opportunistic in forcing turnovers. That makes the connection between Curry and Rocky Beers (seven catches, 67 yards, one touchdown vs. New Mexico) a pivotal matchup. If Colorado State can protect Curry and avoid giveaways, they may find openings against Boise State’s secondary. However, if turnovers pile up, the Broncos’ balanced offense will likely put the game out of reach.
The Broncos Must Rely On Their Ground Game
For Boise State, the key lies in running back Dylan Riley and the offensive line against Colorado State’s run defense, especially with quarterback Maddux Madsen still sidelined. Riley carried 21 times for 79 yards and a touchdown in their loss to San Diego State, and he’s been the most consistent weapon for a Broncos offense averaging 182.8 rushing yards per game (47th nationally). With Madsen out, the Broncos are leaning even more heavily on their ground game to control tempo and limit mistakes, putting added pressure on Colorado State’s front seven.
The Rams have struggled against the run, allowing 186.4 rushing yards per game and 20 rushing touchdowns this season, which makes this matchup particularly favorable for Boise State. If Riley and the offensive line can establish dominance early, the Broncos can dictate pace, wear down the Rams’ defense, and keep the game firmly in their control.
Betting Trends for Colorado State vs Boise State
Colorado State:
- 3-8 ATS their last 11 games in this series
- 4-1 UNDER in last five games
Boise State:
- 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall
Key Injuries and Analysis for Colorado State vs Boise State
- Boise State: QB Maddux Madsen (Out) 1994 yards passing with 15 TDs and 7 INTs.
Colorado State vs Boise State ATS and Over/Under Betting Picks
Below, I'll have my pick and total with an analysis of why I liked the pick and total. Who is more ready to play this game?
Colorado State vs Boise State Spread
- Boise State -16.5 (3 units)
Total for Colorado State vs Boise State
- Under 45.5 (2 units)
Colorado State vs Boise State Final Score Prediction
- Boise State 31 - Colorado State 10
Boise State -16.5 looks like a strong position given the matchup and the circumstances surrounding their offense. With quarterback Maddux Madsen still sidelined, the Broncos are leaning heavily on Dylan Riley and a rushing attack that averages nearly 183 yards per game, which plays directly into Colorado State’s biggest weakness—stopping the run. The Rams have allowed over 186 rushing yards per contest and 20 rushing touchdowns this season, and their offense has been inconsistent, averaging just 18 points per game while struggling with turnovers. Boise State’s ability to control tempo on the ground, paired with a defense that can force mistakes from Darius Curry, sets up a scenario where the Broncos can steadily build a lead and pull away late. Covering the -16.5 spread hinges on Riley’s production and the Broncos’ ability to dominate the trenches, but the numbers suggest they have the edge to win comfortably at home.
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