Colorado State vs. San Diego State Picks and Prediction, Friday, October 3, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Colorado State Rams (1-3, 0-0 MW) and the San Diego State Aztecs (3-1, 0-0 MW) open up conference play in the Mountain West with a late Friday night kickoff in this Colorado State vs. San Diego State prediction. These teams did not meet last season. Colorado State is coming off a 20-3 home loss against Washington State, while San Diego State just won a low-scoring battle 6-3 in Northern Illinois. Kickoff is set for 10:30 EST and can be found on CBSSN. Keep reading to see our Colorado State vs. San Diego State prediction, and check out all of our best NCAAF Predictions!
Colorado State Searches for First Quality Win
The Colorado State Rams finished last season with a bowl appearance, but do not appear to be on schedule this year as they lost three of their first four games. Their only win so far came against Northern Colorado, a sub-division school in a game where the Rams were favored by 34.5 points, but only won 21-17. They were listed as 5.5-point favorites last week as they hosted Washington State, but a poor performance sent them home with the 17-point loss. The Rams need a quick turnaround, and hope to find it as conference play begins in the Mountain West.
A slow start to the season has already led to a change at quarterback. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is a junior quarterback who started the season, but after limited production and a 1-2 TD-INT ratio through the first three games, the coaching staff went in another direction. The Rams started 6'4 sophomore Jackson Brosseau last week against Washington State, as he finished the game passing 19 for 28 and finishing with 188 yards. With neither lighting up the scoreboard, it is possible that both see action here as the coaching staff tries to settle in on one quarterback. The Rams share carries out of the backfield, freshman Jalen Dupree leads the way with 267 yards and a touchdown, while sophomore Lloyd Avant has added another 209 yards and two scores.
Armani Winfield has been the top target in the passing game as a 6'2 junior. He has 11 catches for 156 yards on the year. Their defense has four sacks and three interceptions on the season. Lemondre Joe leads their defense with 1.5 sacks while blitzing out of the secondary.
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Aztecs Win with Defense
The San Diego State Aztecs' defense has shown up over the past two weeks, allowing only a combined three points in that span. Their most surprising victory came at home against Cal, as they were 14-point dogs to their ACC opponent, but won 34-0 in a rout. The following week, San Diego State pulled out a 6-3 win in a defensive battle that did not see a single touchdown against Northern Illinois. The Aztecs kicked the game-winning field goal as time expired on the road.
The Aztecs are led by their 6'5, 235-pound junior quarterback Jayden Denegal. Through the first four games, he has 636 passing yards with a 3-2 TD-INT ratio, while completing 60.2% of his passes. He is playing his first full season as a starter after transferring over from Michigan, where he saw very limited playing time. Lucky Sutton has been the lead back in his junior season with the team. He has 337 yards on the ground with four touchdowns. Sutton ran for 88 yards last week in the win over Northern Illinois.
Jordan Napier is having a productive season as a 6'1 sophomore receiver, as he leads the team with 290 yards on 25 catches. His big game came against California, where he finished with 151 yards and a touchdown. Their defense has nine sacks and three interceptions so far with defensive lineman August Salvati leading the charge with 3.5 sacks.
Colorado State vs. San Diego State Prediction and Picks
Spread Pick for Colorado State vs. San Diego State
- San Diego State -6.5 (5 units)
The spread of 6.5 points is a tasty number, but Las Vegas knows it is, and will often dangle this number in front of bettors who like the favorites, assuming they can win by a touchdown. Even while knowing the trap, I will still make the square play and lay the points, as Colorado State has been a disaster this season. A team with two quarterbacks really has none, as the Rams have already gone to their backup quarterback, but he has not been producing either. San Diego State has only allowed three total points over its last two games, with both games coming against legit Division I opponents, including Cal out of the ACC. San Diego State has also gotten solid production on both the ground and through the air, and will cruise to victory here.
Take San Diego State to cover.
Over/Under Pick for Colorado State vs. San Diego State
- Over 41.5
This number has dropped considerably to where Mountain West games typically are, which is why we will benefit from the overreaction in the market. San Diego State's defense has been strong this season, but it will not consistently hold its opponents to three points or under all season. We cannot forget that San Diego State gave up 36 points in a game against Washington State earlier this season, so Colorado State will be able to find success on offense. The Aztecs have been strong with the ball, and will also march up and down the field against a Rams defense that has given up at least 17 in every game this season.
Take the over.
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