Florida State vs. Florida, Preview, Odds, Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 29, 2025
A pair of power conference programs collide on the gridiron in the Sunshine State as the Florida State Seminoles travel to take on the Florida Gators Saturday afternoon and we have you covered with our Florida State vs. Florida prediction. Florida State fell 21-11 on the road to NC State last Friday in their previous contest, losing outright as a 6.5-point favorite. Florida was downed 31-11 at home by #20 Tennessee last Saturday, failing to cover the line as a 3.5-point underdog. In the all-time series between the teams, the Gators own a 38-27-2 advantage, including a 31-11 road win in the most recent matchup on November 30, 2024. Read more about this Florida State vs. Florida prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
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Florida State Seeking Bowl Eligibility
Florida State lost for the sixth time in eight games as they were downed on the road by NC State in their previous game. The Seminoles dropped to 5-6 on the year and stand 2-6 in the ACC on the year entering their season finale. Against NC State, Florida State never led as they trailed 7-0 after the first quarter, 7-3 at the half and 14-3 after three quarters. The Seminoles climbed within 14-11 with 8:17 to play but could get no closer as they went down in defeat. Florida State owned a 383-286 advantage in total offense and picked up 21 first downs while allowing 20 in the contest. The Seminoles lost time of possession by a 32:57 to 27:03 margin and turned the ball over four times while failing to record a takeaway in the contest.
On the season, Florida State is 41st in the FBS in passing offense with an average of 254.6 yards per game through the air. The Seminoles are 11th in the nation in rushing offense as they put up 223.4 yards per contest on the season. Florida State is 24th among the 136 FBS teams to take the field this season in scoring offense with an average of 34.1 points per contest. The Seminoles stand 30th in scoring defense as they allow 20.4 points per contest. Tommy Castellanos is 163 of 281 passing for 2,520 yards with 13 touchdowns and eight picks while ranking first on the team with 480 yards plus eight scores on the ground. Kevin Sperry (12 of 17, 194 yards, two TD, 27 rush yards), Brock Glenn (five of nine, 64 yards, two TD, 26 rush yards), Michael Grant (one of one, 14 yards) and Jaylen King (zero of one, six rush yards) have each seen action under center. Gavin Sawchuk leads the ground attack with 105 carries for 479 yards and eight scores. Ousmane Kromah (67 carries, 381 yards), Micahi Danzy (11 carries, 212 yards, three TD), Samuel Singleton Jr. (49 carries, 339 yards, four TD), Jaylin Lucas (25 carries, 147 yards) and Zay Parks (15 carries, 95 yards, TD) are all involved in the run attack. Duce Robinson leads the passing game with 53 catches for 1,021 yards and six scores. Danzy (23 catches, 522 yards, two TD) and Lawayne McCoy (21 receptions, 286 yards, two TD) are the only other players with more than 200 receiving yards on the year. Jake Weinberg is 43 of 43 on extra points and 12 of 18 on field goal attempts with a long of 46 this season. Brunno Reus hit both extra point attempts and has not attempted a field goal this year.
Key Injury Report for Florida State:
- Running back Samuel Singleton Jr. (undisclosed) is questionable.
Gators Looking to Earn Win in Finale
Florida dropped to 0-4 since firing Billy Napier as they were routed by #20 Tennessee at home in their previous contest. The Gators fell to 3-8 overall on the year and stand 2-6 in the SEC as they take the field here. Against Tennessee, Florida gave up a touchdown on the opening drive of the game and never recovered in the contest. The Volunteers led 14-0 after the opening quarter and pushed the margin to 31-0 at the half en route to the victory. Florida was outgained 452-261 in total offense, gave up 28 first downs while allowing 15 and lost time of possession by a 35:42 to 24:18 margin. Neither team turned the ball over in the contest.
The Gators are 91st in the nation in passing offense this season with an average of 207.9 yards per game while they are 105th on the ground with an average of 124.5 yards per contest. Florida stands 121st in the FBS with an average of 19.9 points a contest while they are 66th in scoring defense as they allow 24.3 points a game. DJ Lagway is 198 of 313 passing for 2,096 yards with 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions while adding 137 yards plus a score on the ground. Tramell Jones Jr. (21 of 35, 191 yards, two TD, 10 rush yards) has seen limited action under center. Jadan Baugh leads the team with 182 carries for 904 yards and six scores this season. Ja’Kobi Jackson (27 carries, 98 yards), KD Daniels (24 carries, 113 yards, TD) and Duke Clark (15 carries, 58 yards) are next in line. Vernell Brown III leads the team with 36 receptions for 487 yards on the year. Eugene Wilson III (27 catches, 239 yards, three TD), tight end Hayden Hansen (28 receptions, 236 yards, TD), TJ Abrams (13 grabs, 201 yards) and J. Michael Sturdivant (24 catches, 348 yards, two TD) have each gone over the 200-yard receiving mark this season. Trey Smack is 23 of 23 on extra point attempts and 16 of 20 on field goal attempts with a long of 56 this season.
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Key Injury Report for Florida:
- Wide receiver Eugene Wilson III (leg) is out.
- Running back Ja’Kobi Jackson (undisclosed) is questionable.
Florida vs. Florida State Pick
Moneyline Pick for Florida vs. Florida State
- Florida State -100 (4 units)
Both teams have struggled this season and have had issues with their coaching situation. Florida fired Billy Napier when the team was 3-4 on the year and they are 0-4 under Rick Gonzalez. That included Tennessee’s first win in the Swamp since 2003 last week. Florida State has dropped six of eight but the university made the decision to back embattled coach Mike Norvell for 2026. The Seminoles can finish at .500 on the year with a win here and that could give them bowl eligibility. Florida State has something to play for at this point and that’s enough to swing the pendulum in their favor.
Over/Under Pick for Florida vs. Florida State
- Under 50.5 (4 units)
Florida State’s defense has been solid, even with their recent slide as they have allowed 20 points or fewer in six of their 11 games on the year. The Seminoles have stayed under the total in six of their 11 games on the year and have recorded five straight unders entering this contest. That includes each of their last three road tilts. Florida enters this game having seen the under post a 7-4 mark in their 11 games this season. The Gators have stayed under the number in four of their five home games on the year. Florida doesn’t score much, and Florida State isn’t a powerhouse either. This game ends up short of the mark as a result.
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