Florida vs. LSU Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 13, 2025
The Florida Gators (1-1) and the #3 LSU Tigers (2-0) will meet in an early-season SEC battle on Saturday in this Florida vs. LSU prediction. These teams met last season, with Florida winning 27-16 at home. The Gators just got upset at home by SF by two points, while LSU is coming off a win over Louisiana Tech by 16 points. Kickoff is set for 7:30 EST and can be found on ABC. See below for our Florida vs. LSU prediction, and check out all of our best NCAAF Predictions!
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Florida Follows Tough Loss
Every team that is projected to be near the top of the SEC standings figures that they can make it into the College Football Playoff, but the Florida Gators just took a step in the wrong direction. Florida suffered the biggest upset of the season so far, as they were ranked 13th at home when they fell against the unranked South Florida Bulls. They lost 18-16, but were favored by 18.5 points in the game. Florida has not lost hope for a playoff berth, but will need to look impressive from here on out.
The Gators start DJ Lagway at quarterback. The 6'3 sophomore quarterback has great size at 245 pounds with the ability to move in the pocket. He was thrust into action last season, but now he will be the full-time starter and much is expected of the second-year player. Lagway started seven games last season and passed for over 200 yards in four of those games. He has 342 passing yards through two games this season, with a 4-1 TD-INT ratio. Jadan Baugh is unquestionably their lead back; he has 197 rushing yards and a touchdown this season, while the next best rusher is Ja'Kobi Jackson with just 46 yards on the ground.
Vernell Brown III has been their top target in the passing game. The true freshman was a four-star recruit coming into this season as a 5'11 wideout. Brown has eight catches for 135 yards on the year. The defense returned seven starters from last season, including 6'6, 330-pound defensive tackle Caleb Banks, who plugs up the middle.
Tigers Smell Blood
Death Valley will be rocking when the #3 LSU Tigers hit the field, as they have an opportunity to kick their conference rival while they are down. Florida just got upset by South Florida, while LSU is coming off one of the most impressive wins of this young season in Week 1. LSU went on the road and defeated #4 Clemson in their opener, and followed it up with an easy win in their home opener against Louisiana Tech.
No question who will be leading the offense for the Tigers in this one, as Garret Nussmeier is back under the helm after a strong season last year. He passed for 4,052 yards last season with a 29-12 TD-INT ratio, and has 469 passing yards through two games this year. Nussmeier is not one to scramble out of the pocket much, and has two passing touchdowns and just one interception. Caden Durham will be their lead tailback this season. The 5'9 power back had 753 rushing yards last year as a true freshman and is poised to go over that number this year.
Aaron Anderson has been the top pass catcher this season; he has 172 yards on 14 catches through the first two wins. He is a fast 5'8 junior receiver who is in his third season with the Tigers, and had 884 yards last year. Their linebacking crew should be one of the best in the nation, with Whit Weeks and Harold Perkins Jr. both in line for All-Conference Awards if they reach their potential.
Florida vs. LSU Prediction and Picks
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread Pick for Florida vs. LSU
- Florida +7.5 (5 units)
These teams are heading into this game with different motivations, and Florida is the much more desperate team that really needs to turn their season around quickly. Florida just lost to South Florida, so taking another loss here in a two-week span, who already have them well behind the 8-ball in the race for a spot in the College Football Playoff. Florida was ranked 13th at the time. They have a solid coach is Billy Napier and a star quarterback in DJ Lagway, who is looking for his statement game. LSU is at home, they beat Clemson by seven, and only won by 16 points against Louisiana Tech despite being favored by 36.5 points. Look for the motivation of the Florida players and coaching staff with their backs against the wall to power them to a cover here.
Take Florida plus the points.
Over/Under Pick for Florida vs. LSU
- Under 46.5
There is nothing in the first four games played by these teams that would make us believe that this will go over the number. Florida's game last week was an 18-16 battle, and they put up big numbers in their previous game, but Long Island is not a worthy competitor. LSU has a strong offense on paper, but it only scored 17 points against Clemson and 23 points against Louisiana Tech. This will be an intensely fought SEC battle that will be won in the trenches. This will be more of a rock fight than an aerial attack. Take the under with these strong defenses.
Take the under.
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