Florida vs. Miami Florida Picks and Prediction, Saturday, September 20, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Florida Gators (1-2) and the #4 Miami Hurricanes (3-0) renew their in-state battle on Saturday night in this Florida vs. Miami prediction. These teams met last season, with Miami winning 41-17 on the road. Florida just lost on the road against #3 LSU 20-10, missing the cover as 5.5-point underdogs. Miami is coming off an easy 49-12 win over USF, covering the 17.5-point line as home favorites. Kickoff is set for 7:30 EST and can be found on ABC. See below to find our Florida vs. Miami prediction, and check out all of our best NCAAF Predictions!
Florida Falls Fast
The Florida Gators were ranked 13th in the nation when they played USF in their second game of the season, but are now unranked after their two-point loss to USF and their 10-point loss against LSU. Expectations were high this season in Gainesville, and the program is not going into shut-down mode quite yet, but they could use a big win here. The road does not get easier for the Gators, as they play the #4 Hurricanes here, then must play #8 Texas and #10 Texas A&M in their next two games. In their game against LSU, sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway had a nightmare game with five interceptions in their loss.
Lagway was one of the highest-rated prospects coming into college football and was thrust into the action early last year as a freshman due to injury. The coaching staff is sticking with Lagway and his 5-6 TD-INT ratio. His completion rate through three games is still a high 71.0%, but he will need to prove he can maintain that number against tougher competition. He can move, but is a reluctant runner with just 31 rush yards through the first three games. Jaden Baugh has been arguably the best player on the roster for the Gators through the first three games, the 6'1 sophomore running back has 243 rushing yards and a touchdown to start the season, while no other running back on the team has topped 100 yards yet.
Vernell Brown III has been an electric playmaker for Florida so far. He is leading the team with 197 yards on 16 catches and just had eight grabs for 62 yards in their loss against LSU. Tight end Hayden Hansen is a big target in the passing game. He is a large 6'8 and 270 pounds, but has already caught 13 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown this season. Linebacker Myles Graham has been their most consistent defender with 17 tackles, with Dijon Johnson grabbing the team's only interception out of the secondary.
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Hurricanes on the Rise
The Miami Hurricanes are one of the hottest teams in the nation, and are now the front runner in the ACC after a few missteps from Clemson. The Hurricanes started the season with a loud victory over #6 Notre Dame, then may have gotten a slight boost from their current opponent in last week's game. USF got promoted to 18th in the Top 25 rankings after taking down Florida, but they were quickly dispatched by Miami in the following week as the Hurricanes won by 37 points at home. In that game, Carson Beck threw for 340 yards and three touchdowns in the easy win over their in-state opponent.
Beck is their high-profile quarterback who came over after leading Georgia to two National Championships. He is looking to prove he can do it with another program, and is off to a hot start as the Hurricanes are near the top of the rankings. So far this season, Beck has 812 passing yards with a 7-2 TD-INT ratio. Similar to Lagway, he is mobile, but does not look to tuck and run frequently as he has just 26 rushing yards on the season. Mark Fletcher Jr. is their top running back; he has been with the team for the past three seasons. This year, the 6'2 junior back has 272 yards and four touchdowns on the year.
Malachi Toney has been their top wideout as a 5'11 freshman. He has 18 catches for 228 yards and a touchdown to start his collegiate career. CJ Daniels is a bigger target on the outside at 6'2, he has 175 yards and three touchdowns so far. Rueben Bain Jr. has been a strong presence off the end. He has 1.5 sacks and leads the team with 15 tackles. Bryce Fitzgerald is another freshman making an impact; he has two interceptions out of the secondary.
Florida vs. Miami Prediction and Picks
Spread Pick for Florida vs. Miami
- Miami -9.5 (5 units)
This is a massive game for both programs, but only one team has the talent to back it up. Florida is coming off two consecutive losses, including a bad loss to USF and a game against LSU where DJ Lagway threw five interceptions. Lagway could still be the quarterback of the future for the Gators, but he is unlikely to rebound quickly here against this Miami defense. Carson Beck may not have panned out to be the top pick that people thought he might be, but he is still a two-time National Champion and has not had games as bad as Lagway just had. This is a tempting number, but take Miami in a blowout.
Take Miami to cover.
Over/Under Pick for Florida vs. Miami
- Over 51.5
Miami's offense will smell blood in the water in this one. The Hurricanes have looked strong to start the season, including a strong win over the Notre Dame defense, which was supposed to be one of the best in the nation. This is an in-state rivalry gam,e which will have both coaches ready to be aggressive and put up a big number. Florida's back is against the wall; they will push the ball down the field aggressively and look to score as much as possible to keep this one close late. The fireworks will be out on Saturday night in this one.
Take the over.
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