Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 20, 2025
Use Code WWWC A pair of Mountain West programs collide on the gridiron in the Aloha State as the Fresno State Bulldogs travel to take on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Saturday night and we have you covered with our Boise State vs. Air Force prediction. Fresno State trampled Southern 56-7 at home last Saturday, covering the line as a 37.5-point favorite, in their previous contest. Hawaii stifled Portland State 23-3 in their previous contest, though they failed to cover the line as a 35.5-point favorite, last Saturday. In the all-time series between the teams, the Bulldogs own a 30-25 advantage but the Rainbow Warriors earned a 21-20 road win in the most recent matchup November 2, 2024. Read more about this Fresno State vs. Hawaii prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Fresno State Seeking Fourth Straight Win
Fresno State rolled over Southern in their previous contest to earn a third straight win after losing their opener. The Bulldogs improved to 3-1 on the year and look to continue that momentum as they kick off conference play. Against Southern, Fresno State led 14-0 after the opening quarter and 35-7 at the half before cruising the rest of the way to a one-sided victory. The Bulldogs own a 507-142 advantage in total offense, piled up a 31-7 margin in first downs and held a 34:46 to 25:14 margin in time of possession. Fresno State was eight of 10 converting third downs while Southern was three of 12 in those situations.
For the year, the Bulldogs are 96th in the nation in passing offense with an average of 189.5 yards per contest while they are 37th in rushing offense by grinding out 202.5 yards per game on the ground. Fresno State is 53rd in the FBS in scoring offense as they put up an average of 35.3 points per contest while they are 63rd in scoring defense by allowing 19.8 points a game. E.J. Warner is 71 of 96 passing for 716 yards with four touchdowns and five interceptions along with 52 rushing yards plus a score. Carson Conklin is five of six for 42 yards plus six rushing yards as the backup. Bryson Donelson leads the team on the ground with 50 carries for 325 yards and two scores this season. Rayshon Luke (36 carries, 224 yards, five TD) and Elijah Gilliam (17 carries, 101 yards, two TD) share the workload in the system. Ezekiel Avit leads the team with 13 receptions for 110 yards this season. Luke (12 catches, 80 yards, TD), Josiah Freeman (11 grabs, 149 yards), Donelson (eight receptions, 87 yards), Richie Anderson III (six catches, 66 yards, TD) and Jayon Farrar (six grabs, 55 yards) are valuable options in the passing game this season. Dylan Lynch has hit all 16 extra point attempts and five of six field goal attempts this season with a long of 43 this season.
Rainbow Warriors Trying for Third Straight Win
Hawaii clamped down defensively as it shut down FCS Portland State at home last week for a second straight win. The Rainbow Warriors improved to 3-1 overall on the year and try to maintain that momentum as conference play gets underway. Against Portland State, Hawaii shook off a scoreless first quarter as they were up 14-0 at the half and didn’t let the Vikings closer than that the rest of the way. The Rainbow Warriors held a 357-230 edge in total offense, picked up 18 first downs while allowing 16 and controlled the clock by a 34:07 to 25:53 margin. Hawaii also forced the game’s only turnover, but it has to clean up the penalties as they were flagged 13 times for 138 yards in the game.
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The Rainbow Warriors enter this game 56th in the nation in passing offense with 244.3 yards per game through the air while they are 125th in rushing offense with 98.3 yards per contest on the ground. Hawaii is 99th of the 136 teams that have played this season in the FBS in scoring offense by averaging 22.3 points per game, while they stand just 67th in scoring defense by allowing 20.8 points per contest. Luke Weaver has completed 61 of 102 passes for 600 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions this season while adding 73 yards on the ground. Micah Alejado is 45 of 70 for 367 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, plus 20 rushing yards. Demaricus Davis (one of three, 10 yards) has seen limited action. Landon Sims is the team’s leading ground gainer with 39 carries for 154 yards on the year. Cam Barfield (21 carries, 89 yards) and Christian Vaughn (three carries, 22 yards) are next in line. Pofele Ashlock leads the team with 26 receptions for 235 yards and three scores this season. Sims (18 grabs, 155 yards, TD), Karsyn Pupunu (13 catches, 114 yards), Brandon White (12 receptions, 111 yards) and Tama Uiliata (10 receptions, 102 yards) have been useful targets in the passing game. Kansei Matuzawa has hit all eight extra point attempts and 11 of 11 field goal attempts with a long of 47 this season.
Alejado (ankle) missed the last two games after getting injured against Arizona but is expected to get the start here.
Fresno State vs. Hawaii pick
Spread Pick for Fresno State vs. Hawaii
- Fresno State -2.5 (4 units)
Alejado is expected to return for Hawaii, but one has to wonder if he’ll be hampered at all by his ankle injury. The Rainbow Warriors struggle to run the ball, averaging 3.4 yards per carry, and their penchant for flags (averaging 8.5 penalties for 86.5 yards) could put them behind the sticks in a hurry. Both of these teams have been prone to turning the ball ove,r as each has committed eight turnovers on the season. Warner should cut down on the interceptions that have plagued him this season. It’s tough to put faith in a freshman QB, especially one coming off an injury, even at home. Look for Fresno State’s balanced offense to carry them to a road win here.
Over/Under Pick for Fresno State vs. Hawaii
- Under 48.5 (4 units)
Fresno State has gone over the total in three of their four games this season. After staying under the number in their season-opening loss to Kansas, the Bulldogs have scored at least 36 points in each of their three wins. Each of those contests went over the number with combined totals of 56, 63 and 63 points. Hawaii has stayed under the number in three of its four games this season, with the lone exception coming in a 37-20 win over Sam Houston State on September 7. Their other three games saw combined totals of 43, 46, and 26 points. Both teams are allowing less than 20 points a game and are dealing with turnover issues. That helps keep this game under the number.
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