Fresno State vs. Boise State Picks, Preview, Odds, and Prediction for Saturday, November 1, 2025

Fresno State Bulldogs (5-3) vs. Boise State Broncos (6-2) 

Week 10 of the 2025 college football season has arrived, bringing the Mountain West Conference showdown from Albertsons Stadium in Boise, ID, on Saturday afternoon, so we’ve prepared the Fresno State vs. Boise State prediction to get you covered.

Fresno State meets Boise State for the first time since November 4, 2023, when the Bulldogs beat the Broncos 37-30 as 2.5-point home favorites. The Bulldogs aim for their third straight victory over the Broncos, but Fresno State is a 17.5-point road underdog this time around.

The kick-off at Albertsons Stadium is set at 3:30 PM ET, so let’s look closer at this Fresno State vs. Boise State prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 10.

Fresno State laid an egg in Week 9                                                  

The Fresno State Bulldogs (5-3; 3-5 ATS; 4-4 O/U) put an end to their five-game winning streak in Week 7, suffering a 49-21 defeat at Colorado State. After a bye in Week 8, the Bulldogs were blanked by San Diego State 23-0 at home in Week 9.

The Bulldogs' head coach, Matt Entz, decided to bench senior QB E.J. Warner last Saturday. Sophomore signal-caller Carson Conklin got the nod and threw for 182 yards and two interceptions. Conklin completed just 20 of his 42 passing attempts, and the Bulldogs rushed 23 times for a paltry 45 yards.

“We talk about ‘the ball is the team’, and we weren’t living that,” Entz said following the game. “We had turned the ball over too many times and too often. We were also trying to get some leadership out of the players on offense. I see them put in hard work all week, and then there is a hesitation when we get out there on Saturdays.”

It’s Entz’s first season at the helm, and the Bulldogs were shut out at home for the first time in 45 years. Fresno State fell to 2-2 in conference play, and the Bulldogs are probably out of the MWC race. They need one more win to become bowl eligible.

Fresno State scores 25.6 points per game (82nd in the nation) and allows 23.6 points in return (60th). Warner has thrown for 1,486 yards, 10 touchdowns, and nine interceptions across seven appearances, while running backs Rayshon Luke and Bryson Donelson have combined for 1,112 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns. Senior WR Josiah Freeman has 326 receiving yards and four scores on his season tally.

Boise State aims for its fourth straight W                                                    

The Boise State Broncos (6-2; 6-1-1 ATS; 5-3 O/U) advanced to 4-0 in conference play following a 24-3 road victory over Nevada in Week 9. It was their third win on the spin, as the Broncos beat New Mexico 41-25 in Week 7 and UNLV 56-31 in Week 8. Back in Week 6, they suffered a 28-7 loss in a non-conference clash against Notre Dame.

The Broncos closed as 21-point favorites last week, so we saw a push at Mackay Stadium in Reno, NV. Boise State outgained Nevada 308-247 in total yards and won the turnover battle 5-1. Junior QB Maddux Madsen threw for 174 yards and an interception while rushing eight times for 15 yards and a TD, while running backs Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley scored a touchdown each.

“I’m proud of how our defense played tonight,” Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said. “We knew we had to defend a lot. That freshman quarterback (Carter Jones) is a good player. Finding a way to hold a team to three points, a complete shutout in the second half, hats off to our defense.”

The Broncos allow 23.3 points per game (tied for 57th in the country) on 152.8 rushing yards (84th) and 184.5 passing yards (28th). They score 35.3 points in return (29th) on 196.9 rushing yards (28th) and 260.6 passing yards (37th).

Madsen has thrown for 1,823 yards, 15 touchdowns, and six interceptions this season. Riley tallies 8.1 yards per carry, and he’s already amassed 809 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns, while Ben Ford and Chris Marshall have combined for 765 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.

Fresno State vs. Boise State Pick 

Spread Pick for Fresno State vs. Boise State     

• Boise State -17.5 (5 units) 

On paper, the Bulldogs don’t look like a bad defensive team. They allow 182.1 passing yards (23rd) and 132.3 rushing yards (51st). However, their run defense has fallen apart over the last two games. Colorado State rushed 35 times for 190 yards, while San Diego State racked up 208 yards on 46 carries against Fresno State.

Hereof, I can only look at Boise State in this game. The Broncos have weapons to hurt their rivals both on the ground and through the air, while their defensive unit is coming off its best game of the season. They’ll win the 2025 Milk Can Game and cover the spread along the way.

Boise State is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. On the other side, Fresno State has only covered once in its previous five outings at any location.

Over/Under Pick for Fresno State vs. Boise State        

• Under 50.5 (5 units) 

The total is a tricky wager because of Fresno State’s offense. The Bulldogs benched E.J. Warner last week just to go scoreless against San Diego State at home. According to Matt Entz, Carson Conklin will get another starting call.

The Broncos’ defense hasn’t been at its best for most of the season. But as I noted, Boise State was excellent at the defensive side of the ball against Nevada in Week 9. That’s the reason why I’m going with the under in this game.

Hopefully, Fresno State will be able to hold Boise State below a 40-point mark. The under has hit in seven of the previous nine encounters between these two foes.