Georgia vs. Mississippi State, Odds, Preview, Picks, and Prediction, Saturday, November 8, 2025
Use Code WWWC 333On Saturday, the Georgia Bulldogs will play the Mississippi State Bulldogs in a Week 11 NCAAF game at Davis Wade Stadium. The Southeastern Conference matchup is scheduled for noon ET.
UGA is a 7.5-point spread favorite, and the game total is 57.5 points scored.
This Georgia vs. Mississippi State prediction highlights a UGA squad that has reeled off four straight victories and a MSU team that snapped a four-game losing streak last weekend. Saturday's game marks the 28th all-time college football matchup between Georgia and Mississippi State. UGA leads the series 21-6 and beat MSU 41-31 last season in Athens.
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Georgia has rallied for several wins this season
Georgia (7-1 SU, 3-4-1 ATS, and 3-4-1 O/U) beat Florida 24-20 in Jacksonville last Saturday. The Dawgs are tied with Ole Miss for second place in the SEC football standings with a 5-1 record.
UGA rallied to avoid an upset versus rival UF, stealing momentum in the back-and-forth game with a fourth-down stop with less than eight minutes to play. Florida did all it could to keep the score close, but was held to 281 total yards. The Gators were a combined 2-for-13 on third and fourth down, while the Bulldogs were 7-for-15. It was Georgia's fourth comeback victory in its six SEC games, giving the Bulldogs five straight wins in the “World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” rivalry.
"I don't know what else is going on in the country right now, but when you play in this league, every game comes down to the last two possessions. I thought we managed that well," Georgia coach Kirby Smart said. "Play of the game is obviously the fourth down, one or two, whatever it was, stop, and that made the difference in the game."
Junior QB Gunner Stockton leads the Bulldogs' offense with 1,776 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and two interceptions. He has also rushed for 290 yards and seven scores. The Tiger, GA native's top receiving targets are junior WR Zachariah Branch (45 receptions for 474 yards and two TDs) and senior WR Colbie Young (23 receptions for 336 yards and one TD). Freshman RB Chauncey Bowens (79 carries for 446 yards and five TDs) and sophomore RB Nate Frazier (89 carries for 394 yards and two TDs) pace the UGA run game.
Georgia scores 32.5 points per game (41st) and averages 420.0 total yards (49th), including 236.0 passing yards (67th) and 184.0 rushing yards (45th). The Bulldogs' defense surrenders 19.6 points (26th) and 309.4 total yards (20th) per game, including 215.3 passing yards (63rd) and 94.1 rushing yards (14th).
Georgia Bulldogs Football Injury Report: DT Jordan Hall is out, and DB Demello Jones and LB Chris Cole are questionable to play against Mississippi State.
Mississippi State is one win from bowl eligibility
Mississippi State (5-4 SU, 8-1 ATS, and 4-5 O/U) beat Arkansas 38-35 in its last game. The Bulldogs are 1-4 in SEC play this season.
MSU came out on top in Fayetteville, rallying from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit to secure its first SEC victory of the season.. The Hogs dominated the battle on the ground, rushing for 239 yards and holding the Bulldogs to 106, but committed a staggering 18 penalties that cost them 193 yards. Senior QB Blake Shapen was the difference-maker down the stretch, leading scoring drives of 75, 43, and 69 yards. Shapen missed a large portion of the third quarter after taking a hard hit on the first play of the second half.
“We needed an old guy to be able to go win this game, felt that way, and he did,” Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby said. “Came back in, plays unbelievably tough, and he leads us down the field to go win the game in the fourth quarter.”
The Shreveport, LA native Shapen has passed for 2,148 yards, 15 touchdowns, and six picks this year. His top receiving targets are senior WR Brenen Thompson (41 receptions for 716 yards and six TDs) and junior WR Anthony Evans III (52 receptions for 653 yards and four TDs). The Bulldogs' ground game features sophomore RB Fluff Bothwell (96 carries for 490 yards and six TDs) and senior RB Davon Booth (112 carries for 475 yards and seven TDs).
Mississippi State scores 33.2 points per game (36th) and averages 408.2 total yards (62nd), including 250.6 passing yards (50th) and 157.7 rushing yards (68th). The Bulldogs' defense allows 24.7 points (74th) and 368.9 total yards (64th) per game, including 206.8 passing yards (52nd) and 162.1 rushing yards (88th).
Mississippi State Bulldogs Football Injury Report: Bothwell is probable to play against Georgia. OL Albert Reese IV and WR Jaron Glover are questionable.
Georgia vs. Mississippi State Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Georgia vs. Mississippi State
- Georgia -7.5 (4 Units)
The home team is 8-1 ATS, but this may be a great spot to bet on that streak coming to an end. MSU was down two touchdowns late last week and pulled off the miraculous comeback, making them look much more attractive this week than they would have. While the visitors have certainly made their mark as a comeback team, I believe Smart will have the Dawgs locked in for this game, getting out to an early lead and never looking back. They should have no issues running the football against a Mississippi State front that ranks 99th in rushing plays of ten-plus yards allowed. UGA has lacked a pass rush this season, but should have more success getting to the quarterback against a State offensive line that struggles in pass protection (fifth-most sacks allowed in the country).
At the end of the day, I see too much value in a top-five Georgia team to cover, as I feel confident Mississippi State is overvalued.
Over/Under Pick for Georgia vs. Mississippi State
- Under 57.5 (4 Units)
Georgia should plan for a run-heavy approach to this game, especially in the second half. MSU's defense is soft against the run, and UGA has two reliable backs in Bowens and Frazier. The visitors rank in the top 25 nationally in third-down conversion percentage and will control the time of possession from start to finish. Georgia averages 33 minutes of possession per game (9th), while Mississippi State averages under 27 minutes (130th).
I also expect the visitors to come to play defensively. This isn't the dominant Georgia defense of several seasons ago, but the Dawgs rank 12th in opponent red zone scoring percentage and 10th in opponent scrimmage plays of 10-plus yards. They're also top 20 in opponent plays of 20-plus, 30-plus, and 40-plus yards. While they have struggled to create havoc, they will have their opportunities against an MSU offensive line that's been a sieve in pass protection.
This total is too high — bet on the under.
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