Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Air Force Falcons Prediction and Picks – Saturday, September 27, 2025
Use Code WWWC Saturday’s Mountain West clash features the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors traveling to Colorado Springs to take on the Air Force Falcons at 4:10 p.m. ET on FS1.
Both programs enter with something to prove. Hawaii is looking to rebound from a 23-21 Fresno State, while Air Force is fighting to avoid a three-game skid after losses to Utah State and Boise State.
The contrast of playing styles makes this matchup compelling: Hawaii’s inconsistent but capable passing attack against Air Force’s ground-heavy offense that ranks among the nation’s leaders in rushing attempts.
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Hawaii fell short against Fresno State
The Warriors (3-2, 0-1 MWC) showed flashes of improvement under head coach Timmy Chang, but their inconsistency on offense remains a concern. Hawaii has rotated between junior quarterback Luke Weaver and freshman Micah Alejado, with Alejado earning the start last week versus Fresno State. While Alejado completed 28 of 42 passes for 219 yards and two scores, he also threw three interceptions, including two in the fourth quarter that sealed Hawaii’s fate in a crushing 23-21 loss. Weaver has put up strong numbers this season, but mainly saw action in the 37-20 win over Sam Houston State and 23-3 win over Portland State. On the season, Weavers has thrown for 600 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions.
Pofele Ashlock remains the top weapon in the passing game, leading with 303 receiving yards, while Landon Sims anchors the rushing attack with 184 yards on the season. The reality, however, is that Hawaii still ranks near the bottom nationally in offensive yards per play (126th) and averages just 5.3 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 127th.
Defensively, Hawaii is far more competitive. Ranked 29th nationally in yards per play allowed, the Warriors’ front has done a respectable job, surrendering just 3.7 yards per carry (43rd). Peter Manuma leads the squad with 29 tackles, and the team has shown they can pressure quarterbacks and force turnovers, as they did early versus Fresno State with a safety and scoop-and-score touchdown, which gave them the early 9-0 lead last week.
Falcons defense struggling
The Falcons (1-2, 0-2 MWC) have a losing record early in Mountain West play. After a comfortable season-opening win over Bucknell, Air Force has dropped back-to-back games in shootouts against Utah State (49-30) and Boise State (49-37). Normally known for controlling tempo with a strong defense and its triple-option running game, this year’s Falcons have shockingly been gashed on that side of the ball, ranking dead last in the country by allowing 9.3 yards per play. If that doesn’t improve, even a turnover-prone Hawaii squad will have opportunities in this matchup.
Offensively, Air Force is still built around its run-first approach, ranking second in the nation with 57.5 rushing attempts per game. Quarterback Liam Szarka has added an efficient passing dimension, completing 61.8% of his throws for 360 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Josh Johnson has added 224 yards in the air with two touchdowns and an interception. Together, the duo averages 11.2 yards per attempt, ranking ninth-best nationally. Szarka is also dangerous on the ground, ranking second with 157 rushing yards per game. Last week, wide receiver Cade Harris exploded for 177 yards, reminding defenses that Air Force isn’t one-dimensional this season.
While the Falcons’ offense has averaged a solid 5.9 yards per play, it has not matched the defensive breakdowns that continue to plague them. Against Boise State, the Falcons put up 511 total yards behind Szarka’s dual-threat output, but they allowed 592 on the other side. Linebacker Blake Fletcher (31 tackles) has been the lone bright spot, but he cannot do it all. To cover the spread against Hawaii, Air Force’s secondary and edge contain must play with far more discipline than it has through three games.
Hawaii vs Air Force Predictions
Side Pick for Hawaii vs. Air Force
- Air Force -6.5 (4 units)
Air Force is in a desperate spot after back-to-back losses, and this is a bounce-back opportunity. The Falcons have proven they can score, and their attack is more versatile this season with an improved passing game to complement the run-heavy option. That gives them another dimension to exploit Hawaii, which has struggled to protect its quarterback (128th in sacks allowed). While Hawaii has covered in three games this year, Air Force’s ability to sustain drives and pressure Hawaii up front should tilt this game in the Falcons’ favor.
- Over 52.5 (4 units)
Air Force’s defense has been shredded in consecutive weeks, surrendering 49 points twice, while Hawaii has struggled with turnovers but still finds ways to generate late scoring drives. Szarka and the Falcons’ offense will consistently move the ball, while Hawaii’s passing game should be able to exploit Air Force’s secondary. Both teams have already been in shootouts this year, and unless Air Force fixes its defense overnight, points should come steadily.
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