Hawaii vs. UNLV Picks and Prediction for Friday, November 21, 2025
Use Code WWWC Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (7-3) vs. UNLV Rebels (8-2)
The race for the Mountain West Conference championship game is madness, and Week 13 of the 2025 college football season brings a highly anticipated clash from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV, on Friday night, so we have prepared the Hawaii vs. UNLV prediction.
Both Hawaii and UNLV sit at 4-2 in conference play and are tied with three more teams for the second spot in the MWC. The Rebels aim for their third straight victory over the Rainbow Warriors. Last season, UNLV outlasted Hawaii 29-27 as a 12.5-point road fave.
Read more about this Hawaii vs. UNLV prediction, and check out all our NCAAF picks for Week 13. The kick-off at Allegiant Stadium is set at 10:30 PM ET, and the Rebels open as 2.5-point home favorites with a total of 64.5 points.
Hawaii leans on its passing offense
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (7-3; 7-3 ATS; 4-6 O/U) are coming off a bye. They’ve won four of their previous five contests. After stopping their three-game winning streak with a 45-38 defeat at San Jose State, the Rainbow Warriors trounced San Diego State 38-6 at home in Week 11.
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Hawaii held the best team in the MWC to 267 total yards two weeks ago. The Warriors racked up 386 total yards on the night and won the turnover battle 4-1. They picked off Jayden Denegal twice, while freshman QB Micah Alejado threw for 256 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception.
"I think Micah just settled in," Hawaii coach Timmy Chang said. "We made him a captain for the first time. For us to win this game, he’s got to play big. And he understood that. For what he’s doing as a freshman, pretty special."
Alejado has thrown for 2,380 yards, 18 touchdowns, and seven interceptions across eight games this season. He leans on wideouts Jackson Harris and Pofele Ashlock, who have combined for 1,364 yards and 16 touchdowns thus far. Harris had seven catches for 130 yards and three touchdowns against SDSU.
The Rainbow Warriors score 30.5 points per game (tied for 50th in the country). They are ninth in the country in passing offense (302.4 yards per game) and 125th in rushing offense (105.2). The Warriors allow 23.7 points in return (67th) on 216.1 passing yards (tied for 62nd) and 132.5 rushing yards (45th).
UNLV eyes its third straight win
The UNLV Rebels (8-2; 5-5 ATS; 5-5 O/U) are back on track. After consecutive defeats against Boise State 56-31 on the road and New Mexico 40-35 at home, the Rebels strung together a couple of wins at Colorado State 42-10 and to Utah State 29-26 in double overtime.
The Rebels barely outlasted the Aggies this past Saturday. Utah State outgained UNLV 434-422 in total yards and won the turnover battle, but the Rebels found a way to overcome a 10-point deficit. UNLV went 7-for-15 on 3rd down and 2-for-3 on 4th down. Junior QB Anthony Colandrea tossed for 276 yards, a touchdown, and an interception while rushing for 29 yards and a TD.
“What a great win for our guys,” UNLV coach Dan Mullen said. “They’re fun to coach because they do things like this, find ways to stick together and make plays when we need to make them at critical moments of the game.”
Colandrea has thrown for 2,527 yards, 18 touchdowns, and six interceptions this season. He’s rushed 101 times for 513 yards and seven touchdowns, while junior RB Jai’Den Thomas has amassed 953 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns. Thomas didn’t play in Week 12 due to a leg injury and is questionable for Friday’s clash against Hawaii.
The Rebels lean on their dynamic offense. UNLV scores 36.6 points per game (16th in the nation) on 258.0 passing yards (43rd) and 201.3 rushing yards (20th). Thomas is a big part of the Rebels’ offense, while Jaden Bradley leads the receiving corps with 43 catches, 712 yards, and three touchdowns.
Hawaii vs. UNLV Pick
Spread Pick for Hawaii vs. UNLV
- Hawaii +2.5 (5 units)
There are two reasons why I like Hawaii in this game. First, the Rainbow Warriors had two weeks to prepare, whereas the Rebels had to play double overtime last Saturday. Second, Hawaii looks like a better defensive team than UNLV. The Rebels allow 31.0 points per game (114th in the country) on 264.1 passing yards (120th) and 184.5 rushing yards (117th).
Just two teams allow more yards per carry than UNLV (5.5), so Hawaii will be able to get things going on the ground. The Warriors have enough weapons to torture the Rebels’ secondary, and I think Hawaii stands a chance of beating UNLV in this game.
Over/Under Pick for Hawaii vs. UNLV
- Over 64.5 (5 units)
As I mentioned, the stake is huge in this clash, and the Rebels desperately need Jai’Den Thomas back on the field. The Warriors’ run defense has been solid thus far, so Thomas’ eventual absence would hurt UNLV’s offense a lot.
Anyway, the Rebels need to take advantage of Hawaii’s shortcomings in pass defense. The Warriors allowed a whopping 458 yards through the air in that 45-38 defeat at San Jose State three weeks ago.
Hawaii shouldn’t have any trouble moving the chains against UNLV. The Warriors have scored at least 31 points in five straight outings, so I’m going with the over on the total.
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