Hawaii vs UNLV, Prediction and Pick, Friday, November 21, 2025
It's Mountain West Conference football on Friday evening, and we have a Hawaii vs UNLV prediction. Both teams are already bowl eligible, so this game is more about staying in the race to play in the MWC Championship game. UNLV won last year's meeting 29-27 at Hawaii. If you want more winners, check out our college football picks and free winners in the other major sports.
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Quick Picks and Prediction on Hawaii vs UNLV
Check out a quick pick with side and total if you're in a hurry.
- Hawaii 34 - UNLV 27
- Hawaii +3
- Under 64.5
Hawaii vs UNLV Odds and Line Movement
Check out the odds, line movements, money lines and opening odds with totals from Hawaii vs UNLV.
Opening Odds for Hawaii vs UNLV
- Opening Odds: UNLV -2.5 (-110)
- Total: 64.5 (-110)
- Money Line: UNLV -139; Hawaii +114
(odds from Draftkings)
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Hawaii vs UNLV Line Movement
- The total stayed put at 64.5 (-110) to 157.5 (-110)
- The Money line moved from UNLV -139/Hawaii +114 to UNLV -142/TCU+120
- The spread moved from UNLV -2.5 (-110) to -3 (-105)
Key Matchups for Hawaii vs UNLV
Hawaii Will Look To Their Passing Game
For Hawaii, the matchup to watch is quarterback Micah Alejado and wideout Jackson Harris against UNLV’s secondary. Alejado threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns in their rout of San Diego State, while Harris exploded for 130 yards and three scores. The Warriors average 302.4 passing yards per game (9th nationally), and their red-zone offense ranks 3rd in FBS, scoring on 97.1% of trips.
UNLV’s defense, however, allows 264.1 passing yards per game (121st nationally), making this a clear area of vulnerability. If Alejado can stay clean in the pocket and Harris continues to stretch defenses vertically, Hawaii has the firepower to exploit UNLV’s secondary. The Rebels’ turnover margin (+7, 19th nationally) could be a counterbalance, but Hawaii’s ability to sustain drives and capitalize in the red zone will be critical in keeping pace with UNLV’s high-scoring offense.
UNLV Has A Balanced Attack
For UNLV, the key matchup is quarterback Anthony Colandrea and his versatile offense against Hawaii’s pass defense. Colandrea threw for 276 yards and added a rushing score in their win over Utah State, while running back Jai’Den Thomas has powered a ground game averaging 201.3 rushing yards per contest (20th nationally). The Rebels rank 17th in total offense at 459.3 yards per game, but their defense has been shaky, allowing 448.6 yards per game (130th nationally).
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Earle Sports Bets | +1,154.00 |
| 2 | David Hess | +808.00 |
| 3 |  Stephen Nover | +644.00 |
| 4 | Dan Kaiser | +547.00 |
| 5 | Rob Vincilleti | +500.00 |
That means UNLV must lean on Colandrea’s efficiency and Thomas’ consistency to control tempo and keep Hawaii’s offense off the field. If UNLV’s offensive line can establish balance and protect Colandrea, they’ll force Hawaii to respect both the run and the pass, opening up big-play opportunities for receivers like Jaden Bradley and Troy Omeire.
Betting Trends for Hawaii vs UNLV
Hawaii:
- 7-1 ATS in this series when having a winning record
- 19-7 ATS as a conference dog under Timmy Chang
UNLV:
- 2-7 ATS it's last nine games at home
- 6-2 To The Under the last 8 vs Hawaii
Key Injuries and Analysis for Hawaii vs UNLV
None for either team.
Hawaii vs UNLV ATS and Over/Under Betting Picks
Below, I'll have my pick and total with an analysis of why I liked the pick and total. ho is more ready to play this game?
Hawaii vs UNLV Spread
- Hawaii +3 (3 units)
Total for Hawaii vs UNLV
- Under 64.5 (4 units)
Hawaii vs UNLV Final Score Prediction
- Hawaii 34 - UNLV 27
Hawaii +3 feels like the right side because the matchup plays directly into their strengths, and the numbers suggest they can keep this game tight throughout. Micah Alejado has developed into one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the Mountain West, and with Jackson Harris emerging as a legitimate deep threat, the Warriors’ passing game has the firepower to exploit UNLV’s secondary, which has been one of the weakest in the nation against the pass. Hawaii ranks top-10 nationally in passing yards per game and top-3 in red-zone efficiency, meaning they not only move the ball but also finish drives at an elite rate. UNLV, while dangerous offensively with Anthony Colandrea and Jai’Den Thomas, has a defense that consistently gives up chunk plays and allows opponents to stay in games, evidenced by their bottom-tier national ranking in total yards allowed. That combination sets up Hawaii to trade scores and potentially dictate tempo, especially if they can force UNLV into obvious passing situations where turnovers become more likely. With the spread sitting at +3, Hawaii’s ability to sustain drives, capitalize on defensive breakdowns, and keep pressure on the Rebels makes them not just a live underdog but a team capable of pulling off the outright win in a high-scoring battle.
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