Houston Cougars vs Baylor Bears Prediction and Picks - November 29, 2025
Big 12 Saturday afternoon, College football action, and we have a Houston vs Baylor prediction locked and loaded for you. The Cougars enter this game off a 17-14 loss at TCU at home to drop to 8-3 on the year. Baylor comes in at 5-6 on the year, and they are off a 41-17 loss at Arizona. These teams met last year in Houston, and Baylor won that game 20-10. Can Houston get revenge for that loss? Can the Bears gain bowl eligibility? Read on to see our Houston vs Baylor prediction.
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Cougars Fall Short Against TCU
Houston enters this matchup at 8-3 overall and 5-3 in Big 12 play, still stinging from a narrow 17-14 loss to TCU on November 22. The Cougars had chances late but couldn’t finish drives, and that missed opportunity snapped a two‑game win streak. Quarterback Conner Weigman was the engine, throwing for 161 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 114 yards on 15 carries. Running back Dean Connors chipped in 75 rushing yards and caught a touchdown pass, while Amare Thomas continued his strong season with five receptions for 72 yards and a score. The defense kept Houston in it, but the offense stalled in the fourth quarter, leaving them just short of a statement win.
The Cougars’ offense has been balanced all season, averaging nearly 389 yards per game with a steady mix of run and pass. Weigman has thrown for over 2,200 yards and 20 touchdowns, while also rushing for more than 500 yards and nine scores, making him one of the most versatile quarterbacks in the conference. Connors has been the workhorse, piling up 800 rushing yards and 220 receiving yards, while Thomas has emerged as the go‑to receiver with 809 yards and nine touchdowns. Tight end Tanner Koziol adds another layer with 592 yards and five scores, giving Houston multiple reliable options. When the Cougars are clicking, they can spread defenses thin and attack from every angle, but consistency has been the challenge against stronger opponents.
Defensively, Houston has been solid, holding opponents to 21.6 points per game and just 341.5 total yards per contest. Their run defense has been respectable at 135 yards allowed per game, and the secondary has limited big plays, giving up only 206 passing yards per outing. The Cougars have forced 14 turnovers, which has helped them swing momentum in tight games, and their ability to keep opponents from breaking off explosive plays has been a strength. Against Baylor’s high‑volume passing attack, Houston’s defensive backs will be tested, but if they can force Robertson into mistakes and keep the Bears from establishing rhythm, the Cougars have the tools to control the pace of the game.
Bears Need To Win For Bowl Eligibility
Baylor comes in at 5-6 overall and 3-5 in Big 12 play, still fighting for bowl eligibility after a tough 41-17 loss at Arizona on November 22. The Bears hung around early but were shut out in the second half, as Arizona pulled away with 20 fourth‑quarter points. Quarterback Sawyer Robertson threw for 162 yards and a touchdown but also tossed two interceptions, while Caden Knighten provided a spark on the ground with 100 rushing yards on 17 carries. Josh Cameron led the receiving corps with six catches for 71 yards and a score, but the offense couldn’t sustain drives after halftime, and the defense wore down against Arizona’s tempo.
On offense, Baylor has leaned heavily on Robertson, who has thrown for 3,372 yards and 30 touchdowns this season. Cameron has been his top target, hauling in 817 yards and eight scores, while tight end Michael Trigg adds 694 yards and six touchdowns. The Bears have depth at receiver with Ashtyn Hawkins and Kole Wilson, who have combined for more than 1,100 yards, and the ground game is anchored by Bryson Washington, who has rushed for 772 yards and six touchdowns. Knighten provides a complementary option with 447 yards, giving Baylor enough balance to keep defenses honest. Averaging 31.7 points per game and nearly 454 yards of offense, the Bears have shown they can move the ball consistently, but turnovers and stalled drives have kept them from capitalizing in big moments.
Defensively, Baylor has struggled all season, allowing 32.7 points per game and nearly 390 yards per contest. Their run defense has been shaky, giving up 195 rushing yards per game, while the secondary has been inconsistent, surrendering 194 passing yards per outing but often failing to come up with stops in critical situations. The Bears have forced just 10 turnovers, limiting their ability to flip momentum, and opponents have been able to sustain long drives against them. Facing Houston, Baylor’s defense will need to find ways to contain Weigman’s dual‑threat ability while keeping Connors from controlling the ground game. With bowl eligibility on the line, the Bears will be desperate to deliver a complete performance at home, but they’ll need both sides of the ball to rise to the occasion.
Houston vs Baylor Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Houston vs Baylor Spread Pick
- Houston +2.5 (5 Units)
Backing Houston at +2.5 feels like the sharper side given how consistent the Cougars have been compared to Baylor’s struggles. Conner Weigman has proven to be a true dual‑threat, throwing for over 2,200 yards and 20 touchdowns while rushing for more than 500 yards and nine scores, and Dean Connors provides balance with 1,020 scrimmage yards. Houston’s defense has also been steady, holding opponents to just 21.6 points per game, which gives them a chance to keep this matchup tight even on the road. With playmakers like Amare Thomas and Tanner Koziol in the passing game, the Cougars have enough firepower to trade scores and stay within the number.
On the other side, Baylor has been unreliable against the spread, sitting at 2-9 ATS this season, a glaring trend that shows how often they’ve underperformed relative to expectations. While Sawyer Robertson has piled up big passing numbers, the Bears’ defense has been leaky, allowing 32.7 points per game and nearly 390 yards per contest. That lack of consistency on both sides of the ball makes it difficult to trust Baylor to cover even a short line. Houston’s balance, combined with Baylor’s ATS woes, points toward the Cougars being the value play at +2.5.
Houston vs Baylor Over/Under Pick
- Under 58.5 (5 Units)
The Under 58.5 makes sense here because Houston’s defense has been one of the steadier units in the Big 12, holding opponents to just 21.6 points per game, while Baylor’s offense, though capable of piling up yards, has been inconsistent and prone to turnovers. The Cougars play a balanced style that slows tempo, leaning on Dean Connors in the run game and Conner Weigman’s controlled passing attack, which tends to shorten possessions. Baylor, meanwhile, gives up 32.7 points per game, but Houston’s defense should prevent this from turning into a shootout. With both teams likely trading longer drives rather than quick strikes, the pace sets up for a total that stays below 58.5.
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