Houston vs. Oregon State Picks and Prediction, Friday, September 26, 2025 

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On Friday, the Houston Cougars will play the Oregon State Beavers at Reser Stadium in Week 5 NCAAF action. The Cougars are 13.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 47 points scored. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. PT.

This Houston Cougars vs. Oregon State Beavers prediction highlights an undefeated UH team taking on a winless OSU squad. Friday's game marks the fourth-ever meeting between Houston and Oregon State. The Cougars lead the series 2-1 and won the most recent matchup 19-16 in 1970.

Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NCAAF Predictions.

Houston is off to a hot start

Houston (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, and 2-1 O/U) has picked up wins over Stephen F. Austin (27-0), Rice (35-9), and Colorado (36-20). The Cougars covered as 23.5-point favorites against the Lumberjacks, 14-point favorites against the Owls, and four-point favorites against the Buffaloes.

UH won its first Big 12 game last week, as junior quarterback Conner Weigman rushed for a career-high 83 yards with two rushing scores and passed for 222 yards. The Cougars pulled away late with one of Weigman's rushing touchdowns, sending Colorado packing with a 16-point loss. Houston won the time of possession by over 13 minutes and outgained CU 431-300 in total yards, including 209 on the ground. The Cougars' defense also forced two turnovers.

"We didn’t play great, and there’s things we can really improve on," Houston head coach Willie Fritz said. “But for our Big 12 opener, playing a good squad like Colorado, we’re very happy with the outcome.”

The Texas A&M transfer Weigman paces the Cougars' offense with 569 passing yards (64.3% CMP%), seven total touchdowns, and zero interceptions. His top receiving targets are senior WR Stephon Johnson (six receptions for 191 yards and one TD) and senior TE Tanner Koziol (17 receptions for 148 yards and one TD). The UH ground game is led by senior RB Dean Connors (50 carries for 271 yards and three TDs).

Houston scores 32.7 points per game (57th) and averages 388.7 total yards (73rd), including 187.3 passing yards (100th) and 201.3 rushing yards (39th). The Cougars' defense surrenders 9.7 points (11th) and 224.0 total yards (10th) per game, including 120.0 passing yards (10th) and 104.0 rushing yards (36th).

Houston Cougars Football Injury Report: No key injuries to report for Friday's NCAAF game against Oregon State.

Oregon State must show more consistency to win

Oregon State (0-4 SU, 0-3-1 ATS, and 2-2 O/U) has lost to Cal (34-15), Fresno State (36-27), Texas Tech (45-14), and Oregon (41-7). The Beavers pushed as 34-point underdogs last week against the Ducks, but failed to cover the spread as 2.5-point underdogs against the Golden Bears, one-point favorites vs. the Bulldogs, and 24-point dogs against the Red Raiders.

OSU lost to in-state rival UO again last weekend, its third straight loss to its former Pac-12 foe. The game was competitive in the first half, but the Ducks dominated the Beavers after that, outgaining them 585-147, averaging 9.8 yards per pass and 6.1 yards per rush. Oregon State only held the football for 23 minutes and averaged less than four yards per pass and three yards per carry.

“It's a tale of two halves, and this is how good we're capable of being in that first half,” Oregon State coach Trent Bray said. “We need to be that for four quarters.”

Junior QB Maalik Murphy leads the OSU offense with 964 passing yards (57.3% CMP%), six touchdowns, and five picks. He has also been sacked six times. The Duke transfer's top receiving targets are senior WR Trent Walker (23 receptions for 302 yards), sophomore WR Taz Reddicks (17 receptions for 240 yards), and sophomore WR David Wells Jr. (12 receptions for 170 yards and one TD). The Beavers' run game is paced by senior RB Anthony Hankerson (65 carries for 228 yards and two TDs).

Oregon State scores 15.8 points per game (128th) and averages 319.3 total yards (118th), including 249.3 passing yards (51st) and 70.0 rushing yards (133rd). The Beavers' defense allows 39.0 points (131st) and 464.5 total yards (129th) per game, including 284.5 passing yards (127th) and 180.0 rushing yards (115th).

Oregon State Beavers Football Injury Report: No key injuries to report for Friday's NCAAF game against Houston.

Houston vs. Oregon State Pick

Spread Pick for Houston vs. Oregon State

• Houston -13.5 (5 Units)

The Cougars rank 1st nationally in turnover margin (+6), while the Beavers rank 123rd (-4). Houston has picked off five passes and should be able to pressure Murphy, who has thrown five INTs of his own, into a couple of poor decisions in this game. Weigman has been more efficient and turnover-free for Houston, and the visitors' ground game will be tough for the home team's weak run defense to slow down.

Oregon State has been competitive this season, but the effects of all those close losses will pile up on the Beavers eventually. I don't believe this spread is too large for the confident Cougars to cover, given OSU's turnover problems and defensive issues.

Over/Under Pick for Houston vs. Oregon State

• Under 47 (5 Units)

Houston gets off the field on third down (13th nationally in third down defense), forces turnovers, and runs the football effectively. That has helped them average nearly 33 minutes in time of possession this season, the 21st-highest mark in NCAAF. They will continue to excel in that department against an OSU squad ranked 96th in time of possession. With control of the football and a strong defensive effort, the Cougars will keep the total under 47 points in Friday's game.

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