Indiana Hoosiers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 27, 2025
Use Code WWWC Week 5 of the college football season rolls on with a battle of Big Ten squads looking to continue strong starts as the #11 Indiana Hoosiers travel to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday afternoon and we have you covered with our Indiana vs. Iowa prediction. Indiana bombed #9 Illinois 63-10 at home last Saturday, covering the line as a seven-point favorite. Iowa downed Rutgers 38-28 on the road last Friday in their previous game, covering the line as a two-point favorite. In the all-time series between the teams as FBS opponents, the Hawkeyes own a 46-28-4 advantage and have won the last four meetings, including a 34-6 home win in the most recent matchup on September 4, 2021. Read more about this Indiana vs. Iowa prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Hoosiers Seeking 5-0 Start
Indiana was a big mover in the CFP rankings, jumping eight spots after dominating #9 Illinois in blowout fashion last week at home. The Hoosiers improved to 4-0 on the year and stand 1-0 in the Big Ten as they take the field here. Against Illinois, Indiana was tied at seven in the first quarter before reeling off 28 unanswered points to go up 35-7 late in the first half, and cruised from there. The Hoosiers dominated in total offense by a 579-161 margin, racked up 31 first downs while allowing nine, controlled the clock by a 39:43 to 20:17 margin, and forced the game’s lone turnover. Indiana scored on a blocked punt and with John Mateer out with a broken hand, Hoosiers’ quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the current frontrunner for the Heisman.
The Hoosiers enter this game 27th in the FBS in passing offense with an average of 279.8 yards per game through the air, and they are 3rd in rushing offense with 308.8 yards per contest. Indiana stands 3rd in the FBS in scoring offense as they put up an average of 54.8 points per game, and they are 5th in scoring defense by allowing 8.2 points per contest. Fernando Mendoza is 76 of 99 passing for 975 yards and 14 touchdown passes while adding 76 yards plus two scores on the ground. Alberto Mendoza (nine of 12, 139 yards, three TD, 31 rush yards) and Grant Wilson (one of one, five yards, six rush yards) are next in line. Kaelon Black leads the team with 44 carries for 306 yards and two touchdowns on the year. Roman Hemby (50 carries, 265 yards), Khobie Martin (25 carries, 222 yards, four TD) and Lee Beebe Jr. (27 carries, 209 yards, TD) are also effective in the mix. Elijah Sarratt leads the passing game with 24 catches for 256 yards and five scores. Omar Cooper Jr. (19 receptions, 377 yards, five TD) and E.J. Williams Jr. (13 grabs, 116 yards, two TD) are the only other options with more than six catches on the year. Nico Radicic is 30 of 30 on extra point attempts and three of three of field goal attempts with a long of 25 this season.
Beebe Jr. (knee) is done for the season after sustaining a non-contact injury against Indiana State on September 12.
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Iowa Looking for Third Straight Victory
Iowa took down Rutgers on the road last week for its second straight victory and looks to sustain that momentum here. The Hawkeyes are 3-1 overall on the year and stand 1-0 in the Big Ten on the year heading into this contest. Against Rutgers, Iowa was in a tight game as the game was tied at 14 after one quarter, at 21 at the half, and after three quarters. The Hawkeyes were down 28-24 with under 10 minutes to play before scoring the game’s final 14 points to earn the win. Iowa was outgained 400-346 in total offense and lost time of possession by a 31:06 to 28:54 margin in the game. They did win the first down battle 22-20 and forced the game’s only turnover in the game.
The Hawkeyes come into this contest 129th in the nation in passing offense (137.8 yards per game) and 40th in rushing offense (200.5 yards per game) this season. Iowa is an average offensive team as they are 54th of the 136 teams in the FBS to take the field this season in scoring offense with 33 points a game, but they are stellar defensively, ranking 24th in scoring defense by allowing only 14.5 points a contest. Mark Gronowski is 49 of 81 passing for 492 yards with three touchdowns and one interception while ranking third in rushing yards with 143 plus a team-high six scores. Hank Brown (six of eight, 59 yards, TD, rush TD) is the backup. Jaziun Patterson leads the team with 34 carries for 198 yards on the season. Xavier Williams (26 carries, 186 yards, TD) and Terrell Washington Jr. (24 carries, 95 yards) are in the mix as well. Jacob Gill leads the team in the passing game with eight catches for 91 yards on the season. Sam Phillips (five catches, 115 yards) and Dayton Howard (three grabs, 53 yards) are the only other players with at least 50 receiving yards on the season. Drew Stevens is 15 of 16 on extra point attempts and seven of nine on field goal attempts with a long of 55 on the year.
Patterson (ankle) was injured against Rutgers and has been ruled out for this contest. Williams (arm) is questionable, though Kamari Moulton (17 carries, 90 yards, TD) is back in the mix.
Indiana vs. Iowa Prediction
Spread Pick for Indiana vs. Iowa
- Indiana -7.5 (4 units)
Sure, Iowa is 3-1 on the year and their offense has improved from last season. The Hawkeyes still don’t do much damage through the air and are dealing with some injury concerns in the ground game. Facing an Indiana team that has sliced up opposing defenses to the tune of 308.8 yards per game and 6.8 yards per carry is a task for the Hawkeyes, who give up only 60.8 yards per contest on the ground. The Hoosiers have been explosive offensively, putting up more than 50 points in each of their last three games, and stingy defensively. Indiana is a team without any serious issues right now, and they should take care of business against an offensively challenged Iowa squad.
Over/Under Pick for Indiana vs. Iowa
- Under 48.5 (4 units)
While Indiana has been explosive offensively, putting up at least 56 points in three of their four games this season, their defensive work has been up to par as well. The Hoosiers haven’t given up more than 14 points in a game this year. Iowa is similar as far as defensive production goes, as they had allowed seven, 16, and seven points in their first three games before giving up 28 to Rutgers last week. With both teams ranked in the top 25 in scoring defense on the season, look for points to be a little harder to come by for the Hoosiers here. This game winds up falling short of the mark as a result.
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