Indiana vs. Purdue Picks and Prediction for Friday, November 28, 2025
Use Code WWWC Indiana Hoosiers (11-0) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (2-9)
Week 14 of the 2025 college football season is upon us, and Black Friday brings plenty of interesting matchups, including the marquee Big Ten Conference showdown from Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, IN, so we’ve prepared the Indiana vs. Purdue prediction to get you covered.
Indiana holds the Old Oaken Bucket. Last season, the Hoosiers dismantled the Boilermakers 66-0 as 29-point home favorites to snap their three-game skid in this series. The Hoosiers are 28.5-point road favorites this time around, while the total sits at 54.5 points.
The kick-off at Ross-Ade Stadium is set at 7:30 PM ET, so let’s take a closer look at this Indiana vs. Purdue prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 14.
Indiana continues to roll
The No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers (11-0; 6-5 ATS; 7-4 O/U) started the month of November with a 55-10 thrashing of Maryland. Three weeks ago, the Hoosiers survived a scare in a 27-24 victory at Penn State before beating Wisconsin 31-7 in Week 12.
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Indiana blew a 13-point lead against Penn State. The Nittany Lions had a 24-20 lead with 6:27 left to play in the fourth quarter but couldn’t hold on. With 36 seconds remaining, junior WR Omar Cooper Jr. scored a touchdown to lift Indiana over Purdue.
Two weeks ago, the Hoosiers cruised past Wisconsin. They held the Badgers to 168 total yards and won the turnover battle 2-0. Junior QB Fernando Mendoza threw for 299 yards and four touchdowns, finding four different targets in the red zone.
“I did what’s always worked for me in those situations before," Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said. “Instead of going in and kind of snorting at halftime, I just told everyone to take a deep breath, relax, and have fun. I thought we played a good second half, a lot of good individual performances."
Mendoza has thrown for 2,641 yards, 30 touchdowns, and just five interceptions this season, breaking Kurtis Rourke’s single-season school record for most touchdown passes. Running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black have combined for 1,377 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, while wideouts Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt have accounted for 10 receiving touchdowns each.
Sarratt missed two straight games with a hamstring injury, but he’ll play against Purdue, according to Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers score 43.3 points per game (2nd in the country) on 218.4 rushing yards (14th) and 259.6 passing yards (36th).
Indiana allows just 11.6 points per game (tied for 2nd) on 82.5 rushing yards (4th) and 166.5 passing yards (tied for 13th). The Hoosiers’ defense is full of playmakers, and sophomore linebacker Rolijah Hardy leads the way with seven sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss.
Purdue is free-falling
The Purdue Boilermakers (2-9; 5-6 ATS; 3-8 O/U) started the season with consecutive wins over Ball State 31-0 and Southern Illinois 34-17. Since then, the Boilermakers have dropped nine consecutive games. They are coming off a bye, too.
Two weeks ago, Purdue suffered a 49-13 defeat at Washington. The Boilermakers racked up just 267 total yards and gave up 506 in return. Sophomore QB Ryan Browne was benched after going 1-of-6 for 17 yards and an interception, and fellow sophomore QB Malachi Singleton tossed for 150 yards and a touchdown in relief.
In the first year under Barry Odom, the Boilermakers’ offense has struggled a lot. Purdue scores just 20.2 points per game (118th in the country) on 215.3 passing yards (82nd) and 133.0 rushing yards (93rd). Browne has thrown for 1,915 yards, nine touchdowns, and nine interceptions, while Singleton has tossed for 439 yards, five touchdowns, and two picks.
Senior RB Devin Mockobee leads the backfield with 125 carries for 521 yards and four touchdowns. He’s amassed 215 receiving yards and a touchdown across eight appearances, but Mockobee’s season is over due to an ankle injury. Sophomore WR Nitro Tuggle has 29 catches, 420 yards, and four touchdowns on his season tally.
On the other side of the ball, the Boilermakers allow 29.6 points per game (tied for 103rd) on 166.1 rushing yards (92nd) and 246.1 passing yards (109th). Senior linebacker Mani Powell leads the way with five sacks and 11 tackles for loss.
Indiana vs. Purdue Pick
Spread Pick for Indiana vs. Purdue
- Indiana -28.5 (5 units)
The Hoosiers can clinch their first Big Ten title game appearance by beating their arch rivals on Friday. I expect them to get the job done and cover the spread along the way.
Indiana is a much better offensive team than Purdue. The Boilermakers are not a bad defensive team, but their pass rush is weak. That’s going to be a huge issue in this matchup.
The Hoosiers lead the country in 3rd down conversion (57.0%). With Elijah Sarratt back on the field, Indiana will torture Purdue through the air. The Boilermakers don’t have enough offensive weapons to hang around for 60 minutes.
Over/Under Pick for Indiana vs. Purdue
- Over 54.5 (5 units)
This is a huge rivalry game, so the Boilermakers will be highly motivated to slow the Hoosiers down. I don’t think that’s possible. As I said, Purdue’s passing defense is not good enough, and the Hoosiers’ offense will have a field day.
I expect the Hoosiers to surpass a 40-point mark. They will be highly motivated, too. Not just to win and clinch their spot in the Big Ten championship game, but to embarrass the Boilermakers once more. Hereof, I will go with the over. Hopefully, the Boilermakers will add to the scoreboard.
The over is 13-3 in the Hoosiers’ last 16 outings on the road, and it is 8-0 in their past eight road tilts against the Boilermakers.
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