Iowa State vs. TCU Preview, Preview, Odds, Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 8, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Saturday, the Iowa State Cyclones will visit the TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Week 11 NCAAF action. The Horned Frogs are seven-point spread favorites, and the total is 56.5 points scored. The Big 12 Conference battle is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.
This Iowa State vs. TCU prediction highlights two teams heading in different directions, as the Cyclones have lost four straight, while the Horned Frogs have won three of their previous four. Saturday's game marks the 16th all-time matchup between Iowa State and Texas Christian on the gridiron. TCU leads the series 9-6, but ISU won the most recent game 27-14 in 2023.
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Cyclones' run defense was missing last week
Iowa State (5-4 SU, 3-5-1 ATS, and 4-5 O/U) lost 24-19 to Arizona State last weekend. The Cyclones are 2-4 in Big 12 play this season.
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ISU couldn't stop the run against ASU, as Sun Devils QB Jeff Sims rushed for 228 yards, a program record for a QB. The senior accounted for 405 total yards and three touchdowns, outgaining the entire Cyclones team. Sparky committed 11 penalties and committed three turnovers, but overcame those mistakes by averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Iowa State rushed for 150 yards, but its passing game was ineffective (18-for-37 for 186 yards).
“I feel like we've been stuck in the same cycle,” Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell said. “There's 70% of really good football, and there's some critical moments where you don't make a tackle or you don't score a touchdown. You can put that on me. We'll get it fixed.”
Junior QB Rocco Becht leads the Cyclones into action with 2,119 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. His top receiving target is sophomore WR Brett Eskildsen (22 receptions for 414 yards and three TDs), and four other ISU pass-catchers have at least 200 receiving yards. The Cyclones feature two running backs in junior Carson Hansen (114 carries for 613 yards and four TDs) and junior Abu Sama III (103 carries for 558 yards and four TDs).
Iowa State scores 27.9 points per game (72nd) and averages 408.1 total yards (64th), including 243.6 passing yards (61st) and 164.6 rushing yards (61st). The Cyclones' defense surrenders 22.0 points (47th) and 366.0 total yards (58th) per game, including 212.2 passing yards (56th) and 153.8 rushing yards (74th).
Iowa State Cyclones Football Injury Report: RB Abu Sama III, TE Benjamin Brahmer, DB Ta’Shawn James, and WR Daniel Jackson are questionable to play against TCU.
Can TCU continue to build momentum?
TCU (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, and 4-4 O/U) is coming off a bye week. The Horned Frogs beat West Virginia 23-17 on October 25. They are 3-2 in conference competition this season.
Texas Christian won a tough game against WVU, outgaining the Mountaineers by one yard. Both teams struggled on the ground, but the Horned Frogs converted more third downs (6-for-16) than the home team (3-for-14). West Virginia was also 2-for-7 on fourth down, as its run game (32 carries for 41 yards) failed to move the chains. TCU led 20-7 at halftime, and while it wasn't always pretty, the visitors did just enough to hold on for the win.
“Our guys just had to gut it out,” Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes said. “The last two road games, we found a way to lose. Tonight, we found a way to win.”
Junior QB Josh Hoover has passed for 2,371 yards with 22 touchdowns and six picks. The Rockwall, TX native's top receiving targets are senior WR Eric McAlister (37 receptions for 727 yards and eight TDs) and junior WR Jordan Dwyer (35 receptions for 494 yards and three TDs). TCU's run game is paced by senior RBs Kevorian Barnes (82 carries for 418 yards and three TDs) and Trent Battle (52 carries for 323 yards and five TDs).
TCU scores 34.6 points per game (32nd) and averages 425.5 total yards (47th), including 301.5 passing yards (13th) and 124.0 rushing yards (109th). The Horned Frogs' defense allows 25.1 points (78th) and 378.0 total yards (74th) per game, including 257.9 passing yards (113th) and 120.1 rushing yards (32nd).
TCU Horned Frogs Football Injury Report: WR Joseph Manjack IV and OL Coltin Deery are questionable, and RB Kevorian Barnes is probable to play against Iowa State.
Iowa State vs. TCU Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for Iowa State vs. TCU
- Horned Frogs -7 (5 Units)
I like TCU to cover at home on Saturday. The Horned Frogs are rested, and with two of the teams ahead of them in the Big 12 standings on their future schedule, they have a clear path. Hoover has taken good care of the football while leading an explosive passing game, and the offensive guru Dykes should have all sorts of tricks up his sleeve off a bye week. Iowa State hasn't fared well defensively during its losing streak, allowing 31.8 points per game, and now ranks 70th in success rate allowed and 81st in third and fourth-down success rate, according to CFB-Graphs. The Cyclones are banged up, too, and will likely find it difficult to run the football against a stout TCU front. Considering how poorly Becht has played recently, that's unlikely to turn out well for the Cyclones' offense.
Iowa State is 0-3 ATS on the road, while TCU is 3-1 ATS at home. Bet on the Horned Frogs to win by more than a touchdown in this Big 12 clash.
Over/Under Pick for Iowa State vs. TCU
- Under 56.5 (4 Units)
The total is too high for this matchup. The Cyclones will do their best to control the time of possession to keep the football away from the Horned Frogs, which is a sound strategy. While I'm skeptical the visitors' offense can produce points on their drives, they should at least slow the pace, as they have all season (38th nationally in average time of possession). While I anticipate a Horned Frogs win and cover, it would surprise me if these teams combined for 57 or more points. Iowa State and TCU have both struggled in the red zone, ranking 88th (TCU) and 112th (ISU) in RZ scoring percentage.
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