James Madison (JMU) Dukes vs Texas State Bobcats, Picks and Prediction, Tuesday, October 28, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Tuesday, in a Sun Belt Conference clash, the James Madison Dukes (6-1, 4-0 Sun Belt) visit San Marcos, Texas, and UFCU Stadium to face the Texas State Wildcats (3-4, 0-3 Sun Belt). James Madison defeated Old Dominion 63-27 in its most recent outing. The Dukes have won five straight and lead the East Division of the Sun Belt by one game. Texas State lost its third straight when falling to Marshall 40-37 last time out, and the Bobcats are last in the West Division of the conference.
James Madison will play without DL DJ Cotton Jr, while RB Ayo Adeyi is questionable. Texas State will play without DL Jo’Laison Landry, while eight others are questionable. Make sure to read this in-depth James Madison Dukes vs Texas State Bobcats prediction. Buckle up! Dive into our top NCAAF picks for the James Madison Dukes at the Texas State Bobcats prediction and dominate your wagers.
JMU is getting it done on both sides of the ball
JMU has won five straight games coming into this one, including a dominant 63-27 victory over ODU on Oct. 18. The Dukes ran all over the Monarchs for 311 yards on the ground and 313 in the air. The James Madison Dukes are 48th in scoring, averaging 32.3 points per game, and 14th in points allowed at 15.6 points per game. The Dukes average 432.3 yards of total offense per game, which is 36th in the country, while allowing an average of just 237.0 yards per game, which is 4th-best. The Dukes' offense is run first, averaging 243.7 yards (8th) per game on the ground, while the aerial attack averages 188.6 yards (107th) per game.
JMU quarterback Alonza Barnett III has thrown for 1,252 yards with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions. Barnett III has been sacked only eight times and rushed for 153 yards with four TDs against ODU. Wayne Knight leads the ground game with 611 yards rushing and five touchdowns, averaging 6.6 yards per carry. James Madison has six players with 120 yards or more rushing. Landon Ellis is the leading receiver with 400 yards and five touchdown receptions. Linebacker Trent Hendrick is the leading tackler with 48 and is tied for the lead with two other teammates in quarterback sacks with 3.0. James Madison's defense has made 20 quarterback sacks and intercepted six passes.
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Texas State scores plenty, but its defense is porous
The Bobcats haven't won a game since they defeated FCS Nicholls State 35-3 on Sept. 20 and haven't defeated an FBS team since they beat UTSA 43-36 on Sept. 6. They lost at Marshall on Oct. 18 by three, allowing 280 yards passing and 186 yards rushing. They were -2 in the turnover category and amassed 12 penalties for 80 yards. QB Brad Jackson threw for 444 yards with two TDs and one pick, while rushing for 48 yards and a TD in the loss.
The Texas State Bobcats are 27th in scoring, averaging 36.1 points per game, but the defense allows an average of 31.3 points per game, which is 117th. Texas State averages 487.9 yards of total offense per game, which is 10th best, and allows an average of 404.9 yards per game, which is 105th. Texas State is 11th in rushing and 49th in passing, while the defense is 97th in rushing yards allowed and 101st and passing yards allowed.
Jackson has 1,786 yards passing with nine touchdowns and just two interceptions. Jackson has been sacked 14 times. Lincoln Pare leads Texas State on the ground with 68 yards rushing and nine touchdowns, while Jackson has scored eight touchdowns on the ground. Beau Sparks leads the Bobcats in receiving with 674 yards and six touchdown receptions. Linebacker Treylin Payne is the leading tackler with 66. Two players for the Bobcats each have 3.0 quarterback sacks to lead the team. Texas State’s defense has made 18 quarterback sacks and intercepted two passes.
JMU Dukes vs. Texas State Bobcats Pick
Spread Pick for JMU vs. Texas State
- James Madison Dukes -7.5 (5 units)
The JMU Dukes will be too much on the defensive side of the line of scrimmage for Texas State to keep pace. Both James Madison and Texas State are prolific scorers as the Duke's average 32.1 points per game and the Bobcats average 36.1 points per game. However, the big difference is on defense as James Madison allows an average of only 15.6 points per game while Texas State is giving up 31.3 points per game. JMU has the 8th best ground game, averaging 243.7 yards rushing, and will face a Texas State defense that is 97th in the nation, allowing 162.7 yards per game. Texas State is strong on the ground and through the air as the Bobcats are 11th in rushing and 49th in passing, but face a James Madison defense that is second best against the run (74.3 ypg) and 13th against the pass (162.7 ypg).
Over/Under Pick for JMU vs. Texas State
- Under 60.5 (4 units)
The JMU Dukes will score more than their share of points on Tuesday when visiting Texas State, but the Dukes will hold Texas State well below its scoring average, and thus the total will finish under the current line of 60.5 points. The Dukes' ground game is difficult to stop, but they will also control the clock, thus shortening the game. JMU has allowed just 71 points in their last five games. The total has finished under in five of James Madison's last six games, and the total has finished under in three of Texas State’s last five games. James Madison allows just 15.6 points per game.
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