Kansas State vs. Arizona Picks and Prediction, September 12, 2025
On Friday, the Kansas State Wildcats will play the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium in Week 3 NCAAF action. The game is a pick'em, and the total is 54.5 points scored. Kickoff from Tucson, AZ, is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET.
This Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arizona Wildcats prediction highlights a KSU team that was upset last week by Army and an Arizona squad that has rolled over its first two opponents. Friday's game marks the ninth-ever meeting between Kansas State and Arizona on the gridiron. KSU won 31-7 last season in Manhattan.
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Kansas State has been a disappointment
Kansas State (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS, and 1-2 O/U) has underachieved relative to expectations, as it opened the season ranked in the top 25. The Wildcats lost a close one to Iowa State in Week 0, barely escaped with a win over FCS North Dakota in Week 1, and were upset at home by Army in Week 2. KSU failed to cover the spread in all three games, losing as the betting favorite in each contest. The Wildcats were only three-point favorites against the Cyclones, but were 27.5-point favorites against the Fighting Hawks and 17-point favorites against the Black Knights. How will they respond on the road in a short week?
KSU's 24-21 loss to Army was just its tenth nonconference home defeat since 1990. The Black Knights outgained the Wildcats 332-247 in total yards, running the football on 70 of their 82 offensive plays for 237 yards. While they were just 10-for-22 on third down, the Black Knights converted six of their seven fourth-down attempts. By keeping the football on the ground, Army dominated the time of possession (40:44 to 19:16). That discrepancy put extra pressure on KSU to finish its drives with trips to the end zone.
“We didn’t finish drives,” Kansas State coach Chris Klieman said. “That’s why it was 13-7 at the half and not 21-7. You can’t settle for field goals.”Junior QB Avery Johnson leads KSU with 763 passing yards, six touchdowns, and one interception. He's also the team's second-leading rusher (18 carries for 78 yards and one TD). Sophomore RB Joe Jackson leads the ground game (30 carries for 136 yards), and junior WR Jayce Brown (19 receptions for 216 yards and two TDs) is the Wildcats' top pass-catcher. Junior LB Austin Romaine leads the unit in tackles (28) and junior DE Tobi Osunsanmi paces the team in sacks (3).
Kansas State scores 26.7 points per game (80th) and averages 363.3 total yards (86th), including 254.3 passing yards (48th) and 109.0 rushing yards (114th). The Wildcats' o-line has allowed two sacks (29th), and the offense has turned the ball over four times (110th). The Kansas State defense surrenders 27.7 points (103rd) and 333.0 total yards (72nd) per game, including 176.7 passing yards (51st) and 156.3 rushing yards (89th). The Wildcats have forced three turnovers (35th) and have 20 tackles for loss (6th).
Kansas State Wildcats Football Injury Report:
J. Bradley WR Out - Undisclosed L. Cure TE Questionable - Undisclosed D. Edwards RB Questionable - Ankle D. Whitaker Jr. LB Questionable - Undisclosed C. Patton K/P Questionable - Undisclosed B. Stanyer DL Questionable - Undisclosed L. Simmering K Questionable - Undisclosed C. McCalister S Questionable - Undisclosed A. Tomaszewski DL Questionable - Undisclosed L. Porter IV WR Questionable - Undisclosed G. Fitzpatrick OG Questionable - Personal R. Davis DL Questionable - Undisclosed A. Metzger TE Questionable - Undisclosed
Arizona rolled over its first two opponents
Arizona (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, and 0-2 O/U) blew out Hawai'i and Weber State the first two weeks, easily covering the spread in both contests. UA hosted both opponents, beating the Rainbow Warriors 40-6 as 15-point favorites and taking down the Weber Wildcats 48-3 as 31.5-point favorites. Can they stay undefeated before their first road trip to battle 14th-ranked Iowa State?
Arizona didn't give up a score until the fourth quarter of last week's blowout victory. The Wildcats outgained the visitors 556-184 in total yards, passing for 406 (14.5 yards per pass). They were 5-for-10 on third down, committed no turnovers, and won the time of possession battle. Lightning led to a two-hour delay, but it didn't take Arizona out of its groove.
“I thought it was great the way we executed in the first half on offense,” Arizona coach Brent Brennan said. “I thought we were better in the red zone than last week, better on third down and all that stuff is really exciting for me."Junior QB Noah Fifita leads the Wildcats' aerial attack with 534 yards, six touchdowns, and zero picks. His top receiving target is senior WR Javin Whatley, who has eight receptions for 206 yards and two scores. Junior RB Quincy Craig (15 carries for 156 yards and one TD) paces the UA ground game. Three Wildcats have double-digit tackles, and junior LB Chase Kennedy is the team leader with two sacks.
Arizona averages 44.0 points (27th) and 450.0 total yards (45th) per game, including 283.5 passing yards (32nd) and 166.5 rushing yards (69th). The Wildcats have allowed five sacks (105th) and committed zero turnovers (1st). The UA defense surrenders 4.5 points (4th) and 237.0 total yards (23rd) per game, including 145.5 passing yards (29th) and 91.5 rushing yards (33rd). Arizona has forced seven turnovers (1st) and generated 16 tackles for loss (26th).
Arizona Wildcats Football Injury Report:
T. Smith DL Questionable - Undisclosed K. Reescano RB Questionable - Undisclosed T. Powell TE Out - Leg T. Stukes CB Questionable - Undisclosed
Kansas State vs. Arizona Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,570.00 |
| 2 |  Dan Kaiser | +1,223.00 |
| 3 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,000.00 |
| 4 |  Earle Sports Bets | +916.00 |
| 5 |  David Hess | +706.00 |
Spread Pick for Kansas State vs. Arizona
- Kansas State ML (5 Units)
KSU could be 0-3 heading into this matchup, while Arizona dominated its first two opponents, something that won't be lost on casual bettors. I anticipate a bounce-back performance by the battle-tested visitors, however, against a UA team that may not be ready for what's coming after playing two cupcakes. Defensively, Kansas State will be able to pressure Fifita, who has already taken five sacks. He also went just 13-of-23 for 161 yards against the Rainbow Warriors. Tetairoa McMillan (now with the Carolina Panthers) won't be taking the field to bail him out, either. On the other side of the ball, Johnson has been the quintessential dual-threat game-manager, limiting sacks and turnovers while averaging 4.3 yards per carry with a 65% completion percentage through the air. Arizona's defense surrendered 6.3 yards per play last season (115th nationally), and I expect them to carry over into Friday's game.
Over/Under Pick for Kansas State vs. Arizona
- Under 54.5 (5 Units)
K-State won't mess around on Friday. The visitors are aware of how deadly the home team can be offensively, and they'll bleed the game clock as much as possible on offense to limit Arizona's possessions. Last year, Johnson ran all over the Arizona defense (17 carries for 110 yards), and I expect more of the same in this year's matchup. UA's confidence is high after cruising to two wins, but I question how shaky they will look once they've met some adversity. Kansas State has dealt with plenty of pressure, and I believe their defense will make a statement, pressuring Fifita early and often, leading to sacks, punts, and costly turnovers. This game will feature more defense than the 54.5-point total suggests.
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