Kansas State vs TCU Picks and Predictions for Saturday, November 14, 2026

Kansas State travels to Fort Worth on Saturday to face TCU at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Both teams are 4-5. The Wildcats are 1-5 in conference play after a 66-28 loss to Oklahoma State last Saturday. TCU is 2-4 in the league, coming off a heartbreaking 29-28 defeat at Arizona on Friday. Kansas State has dropped three straight. Kickoff is 2:00 pm ET on ESPNU. The Horned Frogs are favored by 10 points, with the total at 45.5. Find a Saturday winner with our free college football picks.

Kansas State Looking for Answers

Oklahoma State tore through Kansas State's defense last Saturday. The Cowboys put up 66 points in a 66-28 win, the Wildcats' third consecutive defeat. Giving up that many points against Oklahoma State was another step backward. TCU's passing game is next, which is worrisome for a weak secondary. Offensively, the Wildcats have found ways to move the ball, but the results keep slipping away. Their last win came October 17 against Kansas.

Avery Johnson has thrown for 1,301 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions, completing 63.1% of his passes. His legs are another weapon: 462 rushing yards on just 51 carries. Rodney Fields Jr. leads the backfield with 574 yards and six scores, while Joe Jackson has 392 yards. Jaron Tibbs tops the receiving group with 421 yards. Defensively, Jayden Bryant owns four sacks. Kansas State needs more stops, not just more yards.

Injuries: Garrett Oakley, A. Morrell, Dillon Duff, Will Anciaux and J. Pastore are out. Blake Barnett, Jacob Knuth, Derrick Salley Jr., M. Lovett and Kaleb Patterson are questionable.

TCU Trying to Finish the Job

TCU nearly stole one at Arizona on Friday. Instead, the Horned Frogs left with a 29-28 loss, falling back to 4-5 after beating Kansas the week before. TCU also lost 24-20 to West Virginia and 17-10 to BYU in October. The Horned Frogs can throw the football, but their ground game hasn't provided the same lift. Saturday offers a chance to break that pattern against a Kansas State defense coming off a rough outing.

Jaden Craig has passed for 2,439 yards, 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions, completing 65.5% of his throws. Tight end Kari Ashley is his favorite target, leading TCU with 52 catches, 655 yards and four touchdowns. Ed Small has 568 receiving yards, and Jordan Dwyer adds 495. Jeremy Payne leads the rushing attack with 429 yards on 88 carries. On defense, Koron Hayward has six sacks, while Hudson Hooper leads the team with 62 tackles. Craig's ability to avoid mistakes will be important against Kansas State.

Injuries: Michael Short is out. Kyle Lemmermann and F. Fierro are questionable.

Key To The Game

Kansas State just surrendered 66 points, and TCU has the passing pieces to exploit another poor defensive showing. Craig's 2,439 yards stand out against a Wildcats defense that needs a response. But Kansas State can run with Johnson and Fields. TCU must prevent those two from turning short gains into long drives.

Kansas State vs TCU Game Pick

• TCU Horned Frogs -10

Ten points is a sizable spread for two teams with identical records. Kansas State, though, has lost three straight and looked overwhelmed against Oklahoma State. TCU has been competitive even in defeat, losing by one at Arizona and four against West Virginia. Craig should find openings for Ashley and Small, especially if the Wildcats struggle to cover downfield. Johnson can keep Kansas State dangerous with his legs, but TCU's pass rush gives the home team another advantage. I'll take the Horned Frogs to cover.

Kansas State vs TCU Over/Under Pick

• Over 45.5

Kansas State's defense has become difficult to trust after allowing 66 to Oklahoma State. The Wildcats have surrendered at least 27 points in three straight games, and TCU can attack through Craig and Ashley. Kansas State brings scoring potential of its own. Johnson has 462 rushing yards, Fields has six touchdowns, and both can break longer runs. TCU has played some low-scoring games, but this matchup offers more room for offense than those results suggest. With the Wildcats likely needing to answer TCU's passing game, I'm taking the over 45.5.