Kansas State Wildcats vs Baylor Bears Prediction and Picks - October 4th, 2025
Use Code WWWC College Football within the Big 12 on Saturday afternoon, and we have a Kansas State vs Baylor Prediction locked and loaded for you. The Wildcats enter this game off a solid 34-20 home win over UCF to improve to 2-3 on the year. The Bears moved to 3-2 last week with a solid 45-27 road win over Oklahoma State. These teams last met back in 2023, and Kansas State crushed the Bears at home by a score of 59-25. Can Baylor get revenge for that loss? Continue reading to see our Kansas State vs Baylor prediction.
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Kansas State Rips Central Florida
Kansas State comes off a 34–20 win over UCF, where quarterback Avery Johnson threw for 168 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 75 more. The Wildcats rank 94th nationally in rushing offense (139.6 YPG) and 77th in scoring (26.2 PPG), but they’ve shown strong efficiency—ranking 1st in red zone scoring rate and averaging 13.11 yards per point. Dylan Edwards leads the ground game with 366 rushing yards and three touchdowns, while Jaron Tibbs has emerged as Johnson’s top target with 72 yards on eight catches last week.
Offensively, K-State has totaled 1,717 yards through five games and converted 77 first downs, but they’ve turned the ball over six times and rank 119th in third-down conversion rate (32%). Their tempo is moderate, and they’ve leaned on explosive runs to flip field position. The offensive line has allowed pressure in key spots, and the Wildcats have struggled to sustain drives against top-tier defenses. Still, their red zone perfection and balanced attack give them a chance to keep pace with Baylor’s high-octane offense.
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Defensively, Kansas State allows 25.2 points per game and 362.6 total yards (74th nationally), with a strong pass defense (181.0 YPG allowed, 54.0% completions) but major issues against the run. They rank 118th in rushing defense, giving up 181.6 yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry. Missed tackles have been a recurring issue, with 13 recorded against UCF alone. The secondary has shown improvement—Gunner Maldonado and Qua Moss combined for two interceptions and allowed just eight yards on eight targets—but the front seven will be tested by Baylor’s physical run game and deep playbook.
The Baylor Offense Is Humming
Baylor enters Week 6 riding high after a 45–27 win over Oklahoma State, where quarterback Sawyer Robertson lit up the Cowboys for 393 yards and four touchdowns on 68.6% passing. The Bears rank 3rd nationally in passing offense (349.4 YPG) and 11th in total offense (504.2 YPG), with a balanced attack that also averages 154.8 rushing yards per game. Robertson has thrown for 1,713 yards and 17 touchdowns through five games, while Bryson Washington and Caden Knighten have combined for over 500 rushing yards and five scores.
The Bears have been explosive all season, generating 18 passes of 25+ yards and 11 rushes of 15+ yards. Their top receivers—Josh Cameron, Kole Wilson, and Ashtyn Hawkins—rank among national leaders in yards after catch and missed tackles forced. Baylor has scored 36.6 points per game (34th nationally) and converted 100% of its red zone trips into points. However, they’ve struggled with ball security, committing eight turnovers and ranking 105th in scoring defense (28.8 PPG allowed). Penalties have also been an issue, with 310 yards on 31 infractions.
Defensively, Baylor has been vulnerable against the run, allowing 180.2 rushing yards per game (116th nationally) and 4.9 yards per carry. Their pass defense has been more stable, giving up 203.0 yards per game on 58.7% completions. The Bears have allowed 12 touchdowns and rank 58th in passing yards allowed, but their red zone defense has been shaky. With a 1–4 ATS record and 0–2 mark as favorites of 6.5 or more, Baylor will need to tighten up defensively to avoid a shootout against a Kansas State team that’s perfect in the red zone.
Kansas State vs Baylor Pick
Kansas State vs Baylor Spread Pick
- Baylor -6.5 (5 Units)
Baylor -6.5 is a strong position against a Kansas State team that’s struggled to sustain drives and defend the run. The Bears rank 11th nationally in total offense and are averaging 504.2 yards per game, with Sawyer Robertson leading a top-5 passing attack and a balanced ground game behind Bryson Washington and Caden Knighten. Kansas State, meanwhile, ranks 119th in third-down conversions and 118th in rushing defense, giving up over 180 yards per game on the ground. That sets up a trench mismatch that favors Baylor’s tempo and play-action rhythm.
This is also a prime revenge spot for the Bears, who are 7–0 ATS when coming off a 35+ point performance and facing a team that beat them recently. Kansas State won last year’s meeting 31–3, but this version of Baylor is far more explosive and efficient, converting 100% of red zone trips and generating 29 plays of 15+ yards. With the Wildcats allowing 25.2 points per game and struggling to pressure the quarterback, Baylor’s vertical passing game should find early success. Laying the 6.5 is justified with momentum, matchup edges, and a proven bounce-back trend.
Kansas State vs Baylor Over/Under Pick
- Over 61 (5 Units)
The Over 58.5 is in play with Baylor’s vertical passing game and Kansas State’s red zone perfection setting the tone for a high-output script. The Bears have generated 29 plays of 15+ yards and rank top-15 nationally in scoring, while the Wildcats average a touchdown on every red zone trip and have multiple weapons who can flip field position. Both defenses rank outside the top 115 in rushing yards allowed, which opens the door for tempo, chunk gains, and short-field scoring. With explosive playmakers on both sidelines and limited resistance up front, this total has room to climb.
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