Kentucky vs. Louisville, Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 29th, 2025
The Kentucky Wildcats (5-6, 5-6 ATS, 8-3 O/U) meet the Louisville Cardinals (7-4, 3-8 ATS, 5-6 O/U) in an inter-conference showdown on Saturday afternoon, and we have you covered with the prediction. The Wildcats were dealt a road loss by Vanderbilt last week. The Cardinals dropped a road meeting against SMU in their previous action. The Cardinals earned a road win against the Wildcats last season
Can the Wildcats secure their sixth win and a spot in a bowl game on Saturday? Keep reading for the Kentucky vs. Louisville prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NCAAF Picks!
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Kentucky Eyes Spot in Bowl Game
The Kentucky Wildcats are targeting their sixth win of the season. A win in this one earns them a spot in a bowl game, while a defeat ends their season. Kentucky has been a threat in the last month. They stand at 3-2 in their past five games. This includes a dominating home win against Florida and a win against Tennessee Tech two weeks ago. The Wildcats' winning streak came to an end in a 45-17 road loss against Vanderbilt last week. They were seven-point dogs. The Wildcats are 2-6 in SEC play and have covered the spread in three of their past five games.
Cutter Boley has been productive, posting 280 yards in the defeat last week. The freshman QB has reached 300 yards in one game this season. He has amassed 2060 passing yards and a 15:10 TD to INT ratio. The Kentucky offense will choose the run more than the pass. Seth McGowan has amassed at least 90 yards on three occasions. The senior RB has yielded 702 rushing yards on the year. Dante Dowdell is also a threat, delivering 533 yards.
Kendrick Law is targeted more than any other receiver on the team. The senior WR has netted 100 yards in two of his past five games and has delivered 524 receiving yards. The Kentucky offense was held to 315 total yards last week. They are only averaging 395 yards per game.
The Wildcats' defense is their top strength. They have yielded 10 or fewer points in three of their past four games. The unit stumbled last week, surrendering 600+ total yards. This drops their season average to 405 yards per game. Daveron Rayner leads the squad with 66 tackles. The pass defense is a weakness, standing 115th, while the rush defense is strong, coming in at 36th.
Kentucky is averaging 27.6 points on the year, ranking them 79th. The Wildcats are conceding an average of 27.6 points, pegging them 75th.
Key Injuries for Kentucky:
- CB Jordan Lovett (undiclosed) is questionable. Has 45 tackles.
Louisville Targets 8th Win of Season
The Louisville Cardinals are hoping to conclude the season with eight wins. Louisville secured bowl eligibility in late October. They have cooled down since that one, dropping three straight games as the offense has gone quiet. Louisville sustained an OT loss against California and a 20-19 home defeat to Clemson in its first two games this month. Next, Louisville was charged with a 38-6 road loss against SMU last week in a clash that had the Cardinals marked as 3.5-point dogs. The Cardinals are 4-4 in ACC action and have covered the spread in only one of their past five games.
Miller Moss did not play last week due to an injury and is questionable for this one. The senior QB has reached 300 passing yards in three games this season. He was kept to 212 yards against Clemson and has recorded 2344 passing yards and an 11:7 TD to INT ratio on the season. If he is unable to play, Deuce Adams will be under center. He has 112 passing yards.
Isaac Brown is also dealing with an injury and has not been placed since November 1st. The sophomore RB is having a dominating season, recording 782 rushing yards in eight games. The injuries continue with Keyjuan Brown. The sophomore RB has 592 yards on the year. The receiving group is solid. Chris Bell has been a consistent performer the entire season. The senior WR netted 50 or more yards in all but two games. He has amassed 917 receiving yards, but is injured and out. The Louisville offense posted only 228 yards last week, which was to be expected considering the injuries. This drops their season average to 384 yards per game.
The Cardinals' defense is hit or miss. The unit held Clemson to 20 points two weeks ago but was exposed last week, yielding 485 yards. They are conceding 315 yards per game. D’Angelo Hutchinson has made 69 tackles and deflected five passes. The pass defense is mediocre, ranking 28th, while the rush defense is a strength, coming in at 25th.
Louisville is scoring an average of 29.2 points on the year, ranking them 70th. The Cardinals are keeping opponents to an average of 23 points, placing them 45th in the country.
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Key Injury Report for Louisville:
- WR Chris Bell (undisclosed) is out. Has 72 catches for 917 yards.
- RB Keyjuan Brown (undisclosed) is questionable. Has 592 yards rushing and 6 TDs.
- RB Isaan Brown (undisclosed) is questionable. Has 782 yards rushing and 5 TDs.
Kentucky vs. Louisville Pick
Spread Pick for Kentucky vs. Louisville
- Kentucky Wildcats +3 (5 units)
The Kentucky Wildcats have five wins. This means they need to win this game to reach six wins, which secures a spot in a bowl game next month. The Louisville Cardinals have already earned a spot in a bowl game. They are stumbling down the stretch here, dropping three straight games, including a home defeat against California.
Furthermore, Louisville is decimated with injuries. Their #1 WR Chris Bell is out with an injury. Louisville's #1 QB, Moss, and top two RBs are also questionable with injuries. It’s no surprise they only managed six points last week. Louisville will probably opt for the run more than the pass if its QB Moss remains out. This is ideal for the Wildcats, who are keeping opponents to only 135 rushing yards per game, good for 36th in the entire country.
Over/Under Pick for Kentucky vs. Louisville
- Over 46 (5 units)
I expect this one to have plenty of scoring. Kentucky has been a threat, posting 30+ points in three of its past five games. They have a quicker offense, ranking 45th in the country in plays per game. The Cardinals have squandered 29 or more points in two of their past three games.
In addition, the Wildcats' defense has been inconsistent and is giving up a ton of points on the road, squandering an average of 29.5 points on the road this season. Despite the injuries, Louisville still has a potent running game. Also, Louisville is averaging 29 points at home this season. The over is a convincing 6-2 in the Wildcats' past eight games.
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