LSU vs. Vanderbilt Picks and Prediction, Saturday, October 18, 2025 

On Saturday, the LSU Tigers will take on the Vanderbilt Commodores at FirstBank Stadium in Week 8 NCAAF action. The Commodores are 2.5-point spread favorites, and the game total is 49.0 points scored. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET.

This LSU vs. Vanderbilt prediction highlights a Tigers squad that rebounded from their loss to Ole Miss with a win last week and a Commodores team that had a bye after losing its first game of the season to Alabama. Saturday's game marks the 34th meeting between these SEC programs on the gridiron. Louisiana State leads the series 25-7-1 and has won ten straight games against Vandy, including 24-17 last season in Baton Rouge.

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Big games are looming, but LSU can't look past Commodores

LSU (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, and 1-5 O/U) beat South Carolina 20-10 last weekend, covering the spread as 7.5-point favorites. The Tigers were coming off a bye after losing 24-19 at Ole Miss.

LSU handled its business at home against South Carolina, holding the Gamecocks to just three points after the first quarter. The Tigers controlled the game on the ground, rushing 28 times for 168 yards (6.0 YPC). However, they were also 4-for-11 on third down and committed three turnovers. USC rushed for nearly 200 yards but struggled through the air, averaging just 4.6 yards per pass with an interception.

Senior QB Garrett Nussmeier leads the Louisiana State offense into action with 1,413 passing yards (66.2% CMP%), nine touchdowns, and five picks. LSU's receiving threats are junior WR Aaron Anderson (23 receptions for 305 yards) and senior WR Barion Brown (27 receptions for 261 yards and one TD). The Tigers' ground game is paced by sophomore RB Caden Durham (67 carries for 283 yards and two TDs).

LSU scores 25.8 points per game (87th) and averages 373.5 total yards (78th), including 258.5 passing yards (49th) and 115.0 rushing yards (114th). The Tigers' defense surrenders 11.8 points (5th) and 297.0 total yards (21st) per game, including 194.5 passing yards (42nd) and 102.5 rushing yards (21st).

LSU Tigers Football Injury Report: WR Aaron Anderson (hip/knee) is questionable for Saturday's game against Vanderbilt.

Can Vanderbilt win a primetime game?

Vanderbilt (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, and 3-3 O/U) has been off since October 4, when it lost 30-14 at Alabama. The Commodores started the season 5-0 and covered the spread in their first four games.

Vandy couldn't sustain its momentum on the road against Bama, as the 'Dores were held scoreless in the second half in the 16-point loss. Senior QB Diego Pavia was 21-for-35 passing for 198 yards (5.7 YPA) with a touchdown and an interception. Alabama outgained Vanderbilt 486-333 and controlled the time of possession, holding the football for nearly 15 more minutes than the visitors.

Pavia leads the Commodores offense onto the gridiron with 1,409 passing yards (71.4% CMP%), 14 touchdowns, and four picks. He is also the team's leading rusher (60 carries for 352 yards and two scores). A few other offensive players to watch are junior RB Sedrick Alexander (50 carries for 319 yards and five TDs), senior TE Eli Stowers (25 receptions for 323 yards and two TDs), and junior WR Junior Sherrill (23 receptions for 274 yards and five TDs).

Vanderbilt scores 43.2 points per game (7th) and averages 467.5 total yards (20th), including 258.8 passing yards (48th) and 208.7 rushing yards (23rd). The Commodores' defense allows 19.3 points (35th) and 313.3 total yards (32nd) per game, including 222.5 passing yards (68th) and 90.8 rushing yards (16th).

Vanderbilt Commodores Football Injury Report: No significant injuries to report for Saturday's game against LSU.

LSU vs. Vanderbilt Pick

Spread Pick for LSU vs. Vanderbilt

• Vanderbilt -2.5 (5 Units)

The Tigers aren't worth backing against a feisty Commodores team this weekend. LSU struggles to run the football (125th in rushing success rate), which has affected its ability to move the chains (59th in third-down conversion rate) and points on the scoreboard (124th in points per quality drive). The Tigers have also been mistake-prone (76th in turnovers), especially last game in the red zone (two fumbles). They also settled for a field goal when they had a first-and-goal at the one-yard line. This season, LSU ranks 102nd in red zone scoring conversion percentage and 89th in touchdown conversion percentage in the red zone.

Vandy star Pavia is a dual-threat, headache-inducer for opposing defensive coordinators. The 'Dores move the football efficiently both through the air and on the ground, and they're one of the best nationally in early-down success rate. On top of that, they're well-rested and playing at home.

Over/Under Pick for LSU vs. Vanderbilt

• Under 49 (4 Units)

This total is too high. The Tigers struggle to put the ball in the end zone when they enter the red zone, as their ineffective run game makes them one-dimensional. They struggled to move the chains last week (4-for-11 on third down) against a Gamecocks team that Vanderbilt scored 31 against. LSU hasn't scored 20 points in any of its four games against power conference foes, either.

That said, the Tigers' defense should keep them in the game. They rank 28th in third-down defense, 29th in takeaways, 25th in sacks, and top-20 in EPA/play against both the run and pass. While the Commodores take good care of the football, they aren't a disciplined team, as costly penalties have set them back this season (113th in penalty yards per game).

This game will be competitive enough to keep the scoring under 49 total points.

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