Memphis vs. NC State Picks and Predictions, Friday, December 19th, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Memphis Tigers (8-4) and the NC State Wolfpack (7-5) will meet in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl on Friday afternoon in this Memphis vs. NC State prediction. Memphis finished the season in the middle of the AAC, closing their season with a 28-17 home loss against Navy as 3.5-point favorites. NC State was 4-4 in the ACC, and closed the year with a 42-19 home win over rival North Carolina, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Kickoff is set for 2:30 EST from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, and can be found on ESPN. Keep reading to see our Memphis vs. NC State prediction, and check out all of our best College Football Picks!
Memphis Looks to Finish Strong
The Memphis Tigers opened the season with six straight wins and were attempting to add their name to College Football Playoff conversations. Memphis had solid early wins over Arkansas, FAU, and Tulsa, but could not keep it up in the second half of the season. Things began to spiral toward the end of the year, as Memphis finished out the season with three consecutive losses against Tulane, East Carolina, and Navy. In their final game of the regular season, Brendon Lewis passed for 172 yards and two touchdowns in their loss to Navy.
Memphis will be under a new direction in this game, as head coach Ryan Silverfield left to accept the head coaching job at Arkansas. The team will be led by defensive back coach Reggie Howard in this game. Brendon Lewis is expected to play at quarterback. He passed for 2,567 yards this season with a 15-6 TD-INT ratio. Lewis is a dual-threat quarterback, as he finished the season second on the team in rushing with 618 yards, and led with nine rushing touchdowns. Sutton Smith is their top back; he just edged out Lewis in yards and Smith finished with 669 yards while punching in seven touchdowns.
Their top pass catcher this season was Cortez Braham Jr. with 889 yards and eight touchdowns as a 6'2 senior wide out. Their only notable opt-out for bowl season was cornerback Samson Israel. The defense finished the season with 19 sacks and 12 interceptions as a unit. The team will be without their starting right tackle, Travis Burke, who also missed the regular season finale with an injury.
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Injury Report for Memphis:
- Out: RT Travis Burke, CB Samson Israel, CB Jaidyn Denis
- Questionable: QB Brendon Lewis battled minor injuries at the end of the year, but most reports say he will play.
Wolfpack Have Momentum
The NC State Wolfpack's season has been the opposite of what was seen in Memphis, as NC State started slow but finished strong. Early conference losses to Duke, Virginia Tech and Pitt set the tone for the season, but the Wolfpack did not give up as they continued to fight as finished the season winning three of their last four games. The final stretch included an impressive win over #8 Georgia Tech, who looked like they could have been playoff bound until getting knocked off by the Wolfpack.
In their last game of the season, CJ Bailey passed for 201 yards and rushed for another 65 in their win over rival North Carolina. It does not appear that any NC State players are opting out of this game, as anyone who is healthy is willing to line up one more time this season. The offense starts with Bailey, the 6'6 sophomore quarterback has been their starter all year and has 2,884 passing yards with a strong 23-9 TD-INT ratio. Bailey does not look to run as much as his counterpart at Memphis, but still finished with 215 rushing yards on the season. Their top back is Hollywood Smothers, the sophomore has 939 yards on the ground to go with his six touchdowns.
Terrell Anderson is their top receiver with 637 yards and five touchdowns as a 6'2 sophomore, but tight end Justin Joly is another big talent with 468 yards and seven touchdowns. Their defense finished the regular season with 18 sacks and eight interceptions. Their top defensive player is linebacker Caden Fordham, who led the team with 130 tackles and 3.5 sacks.
Injury Report for NC State:
- Out: LG Kamen Smith, CB Jamel Johnson
Memphis vs. NC State Picks and Predictions
Spread pick for Memphis vs. NC State
- NC State -4.5 (4 units)
Take the Wolfpack here as they are only laying 4.5 points in this bowl game, which will end up one-sided. The ACC did not get a lot of credit this season, but the conference was still far superior to the American, and will prove it in this one. These teams are trending in opposite directions, which will allow momentum to play a big role here. Memphis lost each of its last three games, and its head coach left town before the bowl game. Meanwhile, NC State closed the season winning three of four, including victories over #8 G-Tech, Florida State and North Carolina. Bailey is the best player in this game, and the 6'6 sophomore will look to put on a show against this Memphis defense that gave up 28 or more in each of their last three games.
Take NC State to win and cover.
Over/Under Pick for Memphis vs. NC State
- Over 57.5 (4 units)
For a bowl game that is not part of the College Football Playoff, this matchup does not have many opt-outs. NC State is bringing their full roster, and Memphis is only losing one cornerback to this game as an opt-out. Memphis does have a second corner out, as Denis is out with an injury, which will allow this NC State air attack to get on track, as Bailey is going up a secondary without two of their best players. Memphis is bringing their full offense to this game, and Lewis is a dual-threat quarterback who can move the ground with his feet when needed. Expect a shootout in this one.
Take the over.
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