Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida State Seminoles Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s a battle of ranked ACC foes from the Sunshine State on the gridiron as the #3 Miami Hurricanes are on the road to battle the #18 Florida State Seminoles Saturday night and we have you covered with our Miami vs. Florida State prediction. Miami had a bye week last week. The Hurricanes downed Florida 26-7 at home in their previous contest, September 20, covering the line as an 8.5-point favorite. Florida State was upended 46-38 in double overtime on the road by Virginia last Friday night, losing outright as a seven-point favorite. In the all-time series between the teams, the Hurricanes own a 36-33 advantage, including a 36-14 home win in the most recent matchup on October 26, 2024. Read more about this Miami vs. Florida State prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Hurricanes Rested and Seeking 5-0 Start
Miami comes in off a bye last week, giving them two weeks to prepare for this contest after dropping Florida back on September 20. The Hurricanes improved to 4-0 overall on the year and open up ACC play in this contest. Against Florida, Miami relied on their defense to stifle the Gators and earn the victory. Miami led 7-0 after the opening quarter, 13-0 at the half and 13-7 after three quarters before pulling away for the win. The Hurricanes didn’t salt the game away until scoring two touchdowns in the final 4:08 of the contest. Miami owned a 344-141 advantage in total offense, picked up 21 first downs while allowing only seven and owned a 36:30 to 23:30 margin in time of possession. Those numbers made up for the fact that the Hurricanes committed the game’s lone turnover.
On the season, the Hurricanes are 34th in the nation in passing offense with 270 yards per game. Miami stands 51st in rushing offense by piling up 180.5 yards per game on the ground. The Hurricanes are 32nd in the FBS in scoring offense with 36.8 points per game, while they stand 9th in scoring defense by allowing 11.5 points a game. Carson Beck is 82 of 112 passing for 972 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions while adding 19 yards plus a score on the ground. Emory Williams (10 of 14, 108 yards, 19 rush yards) is the backup quarterback. Mark Fletcher Jr. leads the run game with 66 carries for 388 yards and five scores. CharMar Brown (49 carries, 206 yards, four TD) is the next back in the system. Malachi Toney leads the team with 22 receptions for 268 yards and a score. CJ Daniels (18 catches, 191 yards, three TD) and Keelan Marion (11 grabs, 125 yards) are also over the century mark in receiving yards. Carter Davis is 14 of 14 on extra points and four of four on field goal attempts with a long of 53 on the year. Bert Auburn is three of three on extra points and hit his lone field goal attempt from 31 yards while Will Rocha hit his lone extra point attempt while not attempting a field goal on the year.
JoJo Trader and Jordan Lyle are both considered questionable for this contest.
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Florida State Trying to Bounce Back From First Loss
Florida State rolled to a 3-0 start, including a two-touchdown win over then-#8 Alabama, but they were dropped in their first road game of the season, falling in double overtime at Virginia last Friday. The Seminoles fell to 3-1 overall and stand 0-1 in ACC play on the season entering this one. Against Virginia, Florida State trailed 7-0 after the opening quarter and 14-0 in the second quarter before rallying to lead 21-14. The game was tied at 21 at intermission and Florida State trailed by seven twice in the second half, tying the game at 35 with 36 seconds remaining in regulation. After the teams traded field goals in the first overtime, the Seminoles surrendered a touchdown plus a two-point conversion and threw an interception on their ensuing possession, sending them to defeat. Florida State held a 514-440 advantage in total offense in the game. They gave up 27 first downs while picking up 24 and lost time of possession by a 31:57 to 28:03 margin in a game where both teams turned the ball over three times in the game.
On the season, Florida State is 42nd in the FBS in passing offense with an average of 263.8 yards per game through the air. The Seminoles are 2nd in the nation in rushing offense as they put up 336.3 yards per contest on the season. Florida State is 1st among the 136 FBS teams to take the field this season in scoring offense with an average of 53 points per contest. The Seminoles stand 42nd in scoring defense as they allow 19 points per contest. Tommy Castellanos is 45 of 70 passing for 848 yards with four touchdowns and three picks while ranking second on the team with 217 yards plus four scores on the ground. Kevin Sperry (eight of 10, 125 yards, two TD, 17 rush yards), Brock Glenn (five of eight, 64 yards, two TD, 26 rush yards), Michael Grant (one of one, 14 yards) and Jaylen King (zero of one, six rush yards) have each seen action under center. Gavin Sawchuk leads the ground attack with 42 carries for 234 yards and six scores. Ousmane Kromah (28 carries, 174 yards), Micahi Danzy (five carries, 174 yards, three TD), Samuel Singleton Jr. (14 carries, 168 yards, three TD), Jaylin Lucas (13 carries, 98 yards) and Zay Parks (15 carries, 95 yards, TD) are all involved in the run attack. Duce Robinson leads the passing game with 17 catches for 346 yards and three scores. Danzy (seven catches, 168 yards) is the only other player with more than 74 receiving yards on the year. Jake Weinberg is 27 of 27 on extra points and three of four on field goal attempts with a long of 45 this season. Brunno Reus hit both extra point attempts and has not attempted a field goal this year.
Running back Roydell Williams, who was injured against Alabama, is expected to return this week. Safety Ashlynd Barker is questionable after getting injured last week against Virginia.
Miami vs. Florida State Prediction
Spread Pick for Miami vs. Florida State
- Miami -4.5 (4 units)
Sure, Florida State is at home and they own a win over Alabama. The fact remains that the Seminoles are coming off a loss to Virginia and face a Miami team that comes off a bye. Florida State has been good on the ground, but faces a Miami squad that has limited opposing teams to 76.3 yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry on the ground. Turnovers doomed the Seminoles last week, and they have committed six turnovers on the season. Florida State is even in the turnover department, while Miami is +3. The Hurricanes take the rest advantage and pick up a road win, potentially knocking the Seminoles out of the ranking.
Over/Under Pick for Miami vs. Florida State
- Under 53.5 (4 units)
Florida State is #1 in the nation in scoring offense, while Miami is 32nd in that category this season. With that said, Miami is stingy defensively, ranking ninth in the nation in scoring defense, while Florida State is 42nd, even after giving up more points last week than they had the first three weeks combined. Florida State has gone over the number in all four games this season, while Miami has split its four contests. When these teams meet, even if the game is one-sided, tend to be lower scoring than one might expect. Eight of the last 10 meetings have fallen short of the mark, including the last four. This game follows suit as the defenses make plays to hold the game short of the total.
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