Michigan State Spartans vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 22nd, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Michigan State Spartans (3-7, 5-5 ATS, 6-4 O/U) take on the Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4, 7-2-1 ATS, 4-5-1 O/U) in a Big 10 meeting on Saturday afternoon, and we have the prediction. The Spartans were hit with a loss by Penn State in their previous action. The Hawkeyes dropped a road meeting against USC on Saturday. Michigan State earned a 32-20 home win in the meeting last season.
Can the Spartans keep the score with 16 points on Saturday? Check out the Michigan State vs. Iowa prediction. When it comes to college football selections, our NCAAF Predictions are stellar.
Michigan State Remains Winless in Big Ten Play
The Michigan State Spartans are searching for their first conference win of the season. It’s been a disastrous season for Michigan State due to the defense. They have been competitive in some of the losses, but there is a good chance they will go winless in Big Ten play. The Spartans lost by a 30-21 score against Michigan three weeks ago and dealt a narrow 23-20 overtime defeat against Minnesota earlier this month. The Spartans had no offense in a 28-10 home loss against Penn State last week in a clash that had the Spartans marked as six-point dogs to dip to 0-7 in Big Ten play. The Spartans have covered in three of their past five games.
The #1 QB, Aiden Chiles, did not play last week due to injury and is questionable. The junior QB has 1392 passing yards and a 10:3 TD to INT ratio. Backup QB Alessio Milviojevic also has an injury but is expected to suit up. The freshman QB posted 128 yards last week and has managed 720 passing yards with four TDs against one pick.
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
Michigan State will run more than pass. Makhi Frazier netted 109 yards in the defeat against Michigan and has reached 100 yards in two games. The sophomore RB has 520 rushing yards on the year. The receiving core is strong. Nick Marsh has amassed 60 or more yards in six games. The sophomore WR had five yards last week and 559 receiving yards on the season. Omari Kelly has 545 yards. The Michigan offense was kept to 229 total yards last week. They are averaging 335 yards per game.
The Spartans' defense is their biggest weakness. The group has squandered at least 30 points in five games in conference play. Last week, they were decent, yielding 367 yards against a good Penn State offense. They are conceding an average of 370 yards per game. Alex VanSumeren has made 47 tackles and 1.5 sacks. The pass defense is 65th, while the rush defense stands at 79th.
Michigan State is averaging 24 points on the year, ranking them 95th. The Spartans are conceding an average of 31.1 points, pegging them 115th.
Key Injuries for Michigan State
- QB A. Chiles (foot) is questionable. Missed the last game with a foot injury.
- QB A. Milivojevic (undisclosed) is questionable.
- CB Nikai Martinez (undisclosed) is questionable. Has 24 tackles.
Iowa Charged with Second Straight Defeat
The Iowa Hawkeyes are eying their fifth conference win of the season. Iowa has already secured bowl eligibility. They had won three in a row in October but have cooled down since. The Hawks beat Minnesota to conclude October, but were dealt a narrow home loss by Oregon two weeks ago. Next, the Hawkeyes had another daunting matchup and were charged with a 26-21 road loss against USC last week in a game that had the Hawkeyes tabbed as 6.5-point dogs. The Hawkeyes stand at 4-3 in conference play and have covered the spread in five of their past six games.
Mark Gronowski is having a decent season. The senior QB usually attempts about 20 passes per game. He has converted on 63% of his passes. Gronowksi has yet to reach 200 yards in a game this season. He has amassed 1216 passing yards and a 6:5 TD to INT ratio on the season. He is mobile, adding 370 rushing yards.
The offense prefers to run. They have a potent running back in Kamari Moulton. The sophomore RB has reached 90 yards in three of his past five games and has netted 612 rushing yards on the year. The receiving group does not have a player with 300 yards this season. Sam Philips has recorded 216 receiving yards. Jacob Gill has reached 50 yards in one game. The senior WR leads the squad with 237 yards. The Iowa offense posted 320 total yards last week, above its season average of 310 yards per game.
The Hawkeyes' defense is dominant and among the best in the country. The unit has conceded 20 or fewer points in all but three games. They gave up 360 total yards against USC last week, dipping their season average to 261 yards per game. Karson Sharar has made a combined 63 tackles. The pass defense is stingy, coming in at sixth, while the rush defense stands at 16th.
Iowa is scoring an average of 28.7 points on the year, marking the 62nd. The Hawkeyes are keeping opponents to 15 points, marking them ninth in the entire country.
Michigan State vs. Iowa Pick
Spread Pick for Michigan State vs. Iowa
- Michigan State Spartans +16.5 (5 units)
The Michigan State Spartans are a desperate team that does not want to finish the season with zero conference wins. They are the huge dogs in most games and have been covering the spread and keeping games within reach. The Spartans have covered in three of their past four games. Iowa State Hawkeyes are the better team, but have dropped two straight games.
Furthermore, Iowa has a weak offense with no passing game. They are only averaging 133.6 passing yards per game, pegging them 132nd. They wear teams down with the run, but rarely post big numbers, and covering this mammoth spread will be a daunting task. Iowa has scored 25 or fewer points in three of its past four games, including 16 points in its previous home game.
Over/Under Pick for Michigan State vs. Iowa
- Under 42.5 (5 units)
I expect this one to go under. Michigan State has a weak offense and has scored 20 or fewer points in five straight games. Their #1 QB, Aiden Chiles, is questionable with a foot injury. The Hawkeyes are one of the best defensive squads in the country and have conceded 20 or fewer points in five of six home games.
In addition, these squads run more than pass and have slow offenses. Michigan State is 90th in the country in offensive plays per game, while Iowa stands at 130th. The Iowa offense has only managed 16 and 21 points in its past two games.
Betting on College Football?
- Bet with other College Football fans at the best sportsbooks
- Sign up today and get started with the latest college football sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
