Michigan State Spartans vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers, Picks, Prediction, Preview and Odds, Saturday, November 1, 2025
Use Code WWWC Michigan State (3-5, 0-5) travels to Minneapolis, looking for their first Big 10 win, when they take on Minnesota (5-3, 3-2) on Saturday afternoon at 3:30pmET. The weather is expected to be in the mid-40s and cloudy in Minneapolis from Hutington Bank Stadium. Two years ago, Minnesota crushed the Spartans 27-12 at home as a 6-point favorite. Will there be a repeat in this Michigan State vs. Minnesota prediction or will Sparty get their first conference win? Don’t get sacked this football season! Try our College Football Picks!
Sparty falls to Wolverines at home
Michigan State comes into this game having lost five straight games after beating FCS Youngstown State on Sept. 13. Since then, the Spartans have struggled offensively in Big 10 play, especially in their last three games, when they fell to UCLA (38-13), at undefeated Indiana (38-13) and to rival Michigan (31-20) last Saturday.
State pride was on the line as well as the Paul Bunyan trophy, which was captured by the No. 25 Wolverines for the fourth straight season. MSU opened the game with three 3-and-outs and a fumble. They made it interesting in the fourth quarter and did cover the 13.5, but fell for the fifth straight game to start 0-5 in the league. QB Aidan Chiles completed just 14 of 28 for 130 yards with no TD. Backup Alessio Milivojevic came in at the end and threw for 60 yards with a late TD pass to Michael Masunas. Chiles was not injured, so there might be a quarterback controversy brewing heading into this game. Chiles has completed 63.1% of his passes for 1,392 yards with 10 TDs and three picks and 227 yards rushing. Milivojevic, a redshirt freshman, has completed 59.5% of his passes for 281 yards with three TDs and a pick in only 37 attempts this season.
Makhi Frazier leads the Spartans with 493 yards rushing and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. The running game has not been successful, as Michigan State averages 122 yards per game (105th) and 210.8 passing yards (89th). They rank 113th in yards per rush (3.6) and 102nd in yards per play at 5.2. Defensively, they are allowing 380.1 yards per game (86th), 6.1 yards per play (116th), 4.5 yards per rush (94th), and 230.8 passing yards per game (87th).
Get Free $30 Credit for Premium Picks + Exclusive Discounts
Subscribe Now
LB Marcellius Pullam and CB Ade Willie are both questionable with undisclosed injuries.
Gophers trying to get back on track
Entering last week's game against Iowa, Minnesota had won two straight and three of their last four games. They are just one game away from being bowl eligible, but at 5-3, they can achieve more than that with Oregon, Northwestern and Wisconsin coming up after Michigan State. The Golden Gophers were never in this game as they fell behind 17-0 after one quarter and 31-0 at the half. It was a rough game for Minnesota redshirt freshman QB Drake Lindsey, who threw three picks.
“That's not the winning formula for beating Iowa," head coach PJ Fleck said after the game. “There's a formula to beat Iowa, and they've earned that right, especially here in Iowa City. We didn’t do anything to impact that tonight for a win on our side.”
Lindsey had just three interceptions coming into the Iowa game, so that was his worst performance, with just 109 yards passing, and he was sacked four times. Overall, the young QB has completed 61.4% of his passes for 1,546 yards with 10 TDs and six picks, while being sacked 13 times. Darius Taylor leads the Gophers with 354 yards (4.4ypc), while Fame Ijeboi adds 276 yards (4.2ypc). DB John Neson leads Minnesota with three picks and five passes defensed.
In terms of injuries, Taylor is listed as questionable for this game after coming out against Iowa. He has already missed two games this season due to a hamstring injury.
Defensively, Minnesota allows just 292.1 yards per game (16th) and 102.1 rushing yards (19th). On offense, the Gophers are less than mediocre, averaging 314.6 yards per game (124th) and 110.5 rushing yards per game (117th).
Michigan State vs. Minnesota Pick
Spread pick for Michigan State vs. Minnesota
- Minnesota -3.5
Lindsey should bounce back from a horrible performance against a very good Iowa defense last week. The Spartans rank 87th against the pass, so he should be able to throw the ball in the 45-degree temperatures. Michigan State doesn't travel well as their defense is even worse on the road, allowing 253.3 yards per game in the air and 162.7 rushing yards per contest. I understand the low line because Minnesota wins with defense as they did against Nebraska (24-6), but this line should have been a TD. MSU has another bad team and they have a quarterback issue, so I expect the Gophers to force Sparty into a few turnovers.
- Under 44.5
Michigan State is going to struggle to score in the colder weather and it doesn't matter if it's Aidan Chiles or Alessio Milivojevic under center. They also won't be able to run the ball against a very good rushing defense. Minnesota is a solid team, but their offense isn't very dynamic. At home, Minnesota is holding opponents to just 12.8 points per game, while Michigan State is averaging just 23.7 points per game on the road. These teams have played under in four of their last five meetings.
Betting on College Football?
- Bet with other College Football fans at the best sportsbooks
- Sign up today and get started with the latest college football sportsbook promos
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
New Users – Bet $5 Get $200 in Bet Reset Tokens for 5 Days
