Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartans Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 25th, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Michigan Wolverines (5-2, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U) meet the Michigan State Spartans (3-4, 3-4 ATS, 5-2 O/U) in a rivalry showdown on Saturday evening, and we have you covered with the prediction. The Wolverines earned a home win against Washington last week. The Spartans were charged with a loss against Indiana. The Wolverines posted a 24-17 home win against the Spartans last season.
Can the Spartans record their first conference win of the season on Saturday evening? Check out the Wolverines vs. Spartans prediction. When it comes to college football selections, our NCAAF Predictions are stellar.
Michigan Rebounds in Home Win
The Michigan Wolverines are targeting their second road win of the season. Michigan has won four of its past five games. Their first loss this season was on the road against Oklahoma. They have beaten Nebraska and Wisconsin. Next, the Wolverines dealt a road loss against USC two weeks ago. Next, Michigan rebounded with a 24-7 home win against Washington last week in a clash that had the Wolverines as 3.5-point favorites. Michigan is 3-1 in Big Ten play and has covered in two conference games. The Wolverines are back in the AP Top 25 at #25 this week.
Bryce Underwood does not attempt a ton of passes. He was on his game last week, amassing 230 passing yards. The freshman QB has reached 250 passing yards in just two games this season and has recorded 1440 passing yards and a 7:2 TD to INT ratio. Michigan opts for the run more than the pass. Justice Haynes is one of the best running backs in the Big Ten. The junior RB is dealing with an injury and did not play last week. He is considered questionable but is expected to suit up. Haynes has posted 705 rushing yards in six games. Jordan Marshall is also a threat on the ground. The sophomore posted 133 yards last week and has 434 yards on the year.
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Donovan McCulley is the big target in the air. The senior WR only managed 21 receiving yards last week and leads the squad with 369 yards. Andrew Marsh is just behind with 297 yards. The Michigan offense racked up 417 total yards last week. They are averaging 417 yards per game.
The Wolverines' defense is among the best in the country. The group contained Washington last week, yielding 249 yards. They are keeping opponents to 307 yards per game. The only team to break out against this defense was USC two weeks ago. Ernest Hausmann has made 47 tackles. The pass defense is rated 56th, while the rush defense is dominant, ranking 15th.
Michigan is averaging 28.7 points on the year, ranking them 70th. The Wolverines are conceding an average of 17 points, good for 16th.
Michigan State Eyes First Conference Win
The Michigan State Spartans are seeking their first conference win of the season. The Spartans are being exposed defensively in conference play and stand at 0-4. They have not won since week three in a home triumph against Youngstown State of the FCS. Michigan State dropped its first two conference games on the road against Nebraska and UCLA. Next, they had the task of playing Indiana and were dealt a 38-13 road loss in a clash that had the Spartans as 26-point dogs. The Spartans have covered the spread in three of their past five games.
Aidan Chiles has not been the issue. The junior QB has connected on 65% of his passes. Chiles recorded 243 yards last week and has netted 1262 passing yards and a 10:3 TD to INT ratio. He has added 234 yards on the ground. Makhi Frazier only had one rush last week. The sophomore RB has surpassed 50 yards in five games this season and leads the squad with 384 rushing yards.
The receiving core is decent. They have three players with at least 200 yards. Omari Kelly amassed 133 yards in the defeat against USC and has 406 receiving yards on the year. Nick Marsh is having an outstanding season and has brought in 404 yards. The Michigan State offense managed 367 yards against a good Hoosiers defense last week. They are reporting an average of 336 yards per game.
The Spartans' defense is a huge weakness. They have no answer for the opposition in Big Ten play and rank near the bottom in many categories. The defense squandered 464 yards last week and is conceding an average of 382 yards per game. Linebacker Jordan Hall leads the team with 51 tackles. The pass defense is 111th, while the rush defense has been a positive, standing 51st.
Michigan State is scoring an average of 27.1 points this year, marking them 79th. The Spartans are squandering an average of 32.7 points, pegging them 120th in the country.
Michigan vs. Michigan State Pick
Spread Pick for Michigan vs. Michigan State
- Michigan State Spartans +14.5 (5 units)
The Michigan Wolverines are a different team on the road, where they stand at 1-2 on the season, including a defeat against Oklahoma. The Wolverines lost by 18 points against USC two weeks ago. The Michigan State Spartans are a desperate team seeking their first conference win of the season. These rivalry games are usually competitive, and the Go Green crowd will provide a boost.
Furthermore, Michigan relies more on its rushing offense. They run more than they pass. This is good news for the Spartans. Their best strength on defense is the rush defense, which concedes an average of only 131 rushing yards per game. Michigan State QB Aidan Chiles has connected on 65% of his passes and is going to have an impact on this game against a mediocre Wolverines pass defense that is ranked 55th. The Spartans are not winning games but have covered the spread in all but one conference game, including road covers against USC, Nebraska, and Indiana. Michigan does not score a ton of points, which makes covering this spread a daunting task.
Over/Under Pick for Michigan vs. Michigan State
- Over 49 (5 units)
I expect this one to have a ton of scoring. Michigan is going to rack up the yards on the ground. They posted nearly 200 yards on the ground in the win last week. The Spartans' defense can’t be trusted to take an under. They have surrendered an average of 39 points in conference play.
In addition, the Michigan State offense has some power. They scored 31 points on the road against USC and 27 points against Nebraska. The Wolverines' defense has not been nearly as effective on the road, conceding 27 and 31 points in their past two road games. The over is a convincing 5-1 in the Spartans’ past six games.
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