MInnesota Golden Gophers vs Ohio State Buckeyes Prediction and Picks - October 4th, 2025
Use Code WWWC Saturday afternoon Big 10 college football action, and we have a Minnesota vs Ohio State Prediction loaded up and ready to roll. The Golden Gophers enter this game off a 31-28 home win over Rutgers to move to 3-1 on the year. Ohio State moved to 4-0 last week with a 24-6 road win over Washington. These teams met back in 2023, and Ohio State won that game 37-3. Can Minnesota keep this one close or pull the upset? Continue reading to see our Minnesota vs Ohio State prediction.
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Golden Gophers Looking For A Huge Upset
Minnesota enters Week 6 at 3–1 after a 31–28 win over Rutgers, powered by redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey's breakout performance. Lindsey completed 31-of-41 passes for 324 yards and three touchdowns, showing poise and accuracy in a back-and-forth Big Ten battle. Running back Fame Ijeboi added 37 yards and a touchdown on the ground, while wideout Jalen Smith exploded for 103 yards and a score on just four catches. The Gophers overcame a late deficit and leaned on their passing game to seal the win, despite being held to just 2.8 yards per carry.
Under head coach P.J. Fleck, Minnesota has built a methodical, ball-control offense that ranks 13th nationally in time of possession (33:38 per game). Lindsey has thrown for 958 yards and seven touchdowns with just two interceptions, while Ijeboi leads the backfield with 173 rushing yards. Defensively, the Gophers have been stout, allowing just 230 total yards per game (9th nationally), including only 65.5 rushing yards (5th) and 164.5 passing yards (23rd). They’ve forced six turnovers and rank 25th in scoring defense (16.3 PPG), but red zone offense remains a concern, converting just 81% of trips (91st nationally).
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Facing No. 1 Ohio State, Minnesota will need to play nearly mistake-free football. Lindsey must stay composed against a defense allowing just 5.5 points per game, and the offensive line must hold up against pressure from Kayden McDonald and Eddrick Houston. Defensively, expect the Gophers to mix zone and man coverage to contain OSU’s elite receivers and force red zone field goals. If they can win the turnover battle and control tempo, Minnesota has the defensive chops to keep it competitive longer than expected.
Buckeyes Tame The Huskies
Ohio State enters this primetime matchup at 4–0 and ranked No. 1 nationally after a 24–6 win over Washington. Quarterback Julian Sayin was sharp, completing 22-of-28 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns, while freshman running back Bo Jackson added 80 yards on 17 carries. Wideout Jeremiah Smith continued his dominant season with eight catches for 81 yards and a score, and the Buckeyes’ defense turned in another suffocating performance, holding Washington to just 263 total yards and no touchdowns.
Sayin leads the nation in completion percentage (78.8%) and has thrown for 987 yards and 10 touchdowns with three picks. Jackson and West Virginia transfer CJ Donaldson anchor a rushing attack averaging 181.3 yards per game, while Smith and Carnell Tate headline a receiving corps that’s carved up zone coverage all season. Defensively, Ohio State ranks 1st in scoring defense (5.5 PPG), 8th in pass defense (132 YPG), and 27th in rush defense (97.3 YPG). They’ve allowed just two touchdowns all season and lead the country in red zone defense, allowing scores on just 25% of trips.
Against Minnesota, Ohio State will look to pressure Lindsey early and force quick decisions. Expect Sayin to test the Gophers’ secondary with intermediate routes and play-action shots, while Donaldson and Jackson grind out tough yards to set up third-and-manageable. If the Buckeyes continue to dominate field position and finish drives, they’re built to cover the 23.5-point spread. But Minnesota’s defense is legit, and if OSU stalls in the red zone again, this could be closer than expected for a half.
Minnesota vs Ohio State Pick
Minnesota vs Ohio State Spread Pick
- Minnesota +24 (4 Units)
Minnesota catching 24 points is a value spot given their defensive profile and emerging quarterback play. The Gophers rank top 10 nationally in total defense, allowing just 230 yards per game, and they’ve held opponents to 16.3 points per contest. Redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey is coming off a 324-yard, three-touchdown performance against Rutgers, showing poise and accuracy in a comeback win. P.J. Fleck’s team controls tempo (13th in time of possession) and rarely beats itself, which is crucial against an Ohio State squad that thrives on explosive plays and short fields.
Ohio State’s defense is elite, but their offense has leaned conservative in recent weeks, scoring just 24 points against Washington and settling for field goals in multiple red zone trips. Minnesota’s defensive front is disciplined and physical, and if they can force Julian Sayin into longer drives and limit chunk plays to Jeremiah Smith, they’re built to hang around. Lindsey doesn’t need to win the game—he just needs to avoid turnovers and convert third downs. With a methodical style and a defense that travels, Minnesota has the ingredients to stay inside the number.
Minnesota vs Ohio State Over/Under Pick
- Under 44.5 (5 Units)
Under 44.5 is a sharp lean in a matchup featuring two top-25 defenses and a methodical Minnesota offense built to drain clock. The Gophers rank 9th nationally in total defense and 13th in time of possession, while Ohio State leads the country in scoring defense (5.5 PPG) and red zone stops. Julian Sayin has been efficient but not explosive, and Minnesota’s bend-but-don’t-break style could force field goals over touchdowns. With both teams likely to lean on the run and limit possessions, this sets up as a slow-grind Big Ten battle that stays well under the number.
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