Mississippi State vs. Missouri, Odds, Preview, Picks and Prediction, Saturday, November 15, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Mississippi State Bulldogs head to Memorial Stadium to take on the Missouri Tigers in an SEC matchup on Saturday night. The Bulldogs are fighting for bowl eligibility, while Missouri is trying to get back on track after back-to-back losses.
These two teams met last season when Missouri beat Mississippi State 39-20 as a 10-point road favorite.
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Looking for sixth win
After starting the season 4-0, Mississippi State has now lost five of six games and is coming off a 41-21 home loss to Georgia. The Bulldogs now sit at 5-5 overall and 1-5 in the SEC, still hunting for that sixth win to become bowl eligible.
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The Mississippi State offense averages 399.6 yards per game (61st in FBS), with 243.1 through the air (55th) and 156.5 on the ground (67th). The Bulldogs also average 32 points per game (48th).
Quarterback Blake Shapen has been solid, throwing for 2,234 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just six interceptions while completing 65.2% of his passes. Shapen’s top targets are Brenen Thompson (808 yards, 6 TDs) and Anthony Evans II (680 yards, 4 TDs). Running back Da’Marion Bothwell has chipped in 534 yards and six touchdowns on the ground, followed by Davon Booth with 513 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.
Defensively, the Bulldogs have had their struggles, giving up 388.7 yards per game (91st) and 26.3 points per game (85th). The run defense has been a problem, ranking 111th while allowing 176.2 yards per game.
Missouri is looking to get right
Missouri has lost its last two games, falling at Vanderbilt 17-10 on October 25 and last week 38-17 at home against Texas A&M. That skid has dropped the Tigers to 6-3 overall and 2-3 in conference play.
Missouri’s offense has been balanced, averaging 452.3 yards per game (21st in FBS), 220 passing (81st) and 232.3 rushing (8th), while scoring 33.3 points per game (30th). Quarterback Beau Pribula has thrown for 1,690 yards with 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, but he missed the Georgia game with an injury and is considered doubtful. True freshman Matt Zollers struggled in his place against A&M, completing just 7 of 22 for 77 yards.
Ahmad Hardy leads a powerful ground game with 1,046 yards and 12 touchdowns, while Kevin Coleman Jr. has been the leading target in the passing game with 52 catches for 559 yards.
Defensively, the Tigers are one of the best units in the country. They allow just 266.9 total yards (8th), including 162.7 passing (9th) and 104.2 rushing (18th), and give up only 19.1 points per game (21st). Missouri also dominates time of possession, ranking fourth which helps keep their defense fresh.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers Predictions
ATS Pick for Mississippi State vs. Missouri:
- Mississippi State +7 (5 units)
The Tigers have a strong defense, but they haven’t been covering lately, going just 1-4-1 in their last six games against the spread. On the other side, despite the losses, Mississippi State is 8-2 against the spread this season, and they often play better than the scoreboard suggests.
Missouri will likely be without its starting quarterback, Beau Pribula, and there is a steep dropoff to freshman Matt Zollers, who went 7 for 22 for 77 yards against Texas A&M. Zollers also may have injured his hand on a hard hit last week.
Mississippi State did use freshman quarterback Jamario Taylor along with Blake Shapen in their loss to Georgia, but with three rushing touchdowns, Taylor shoud he could be a valuable wrinkle in this offense going forward.
The Bulldogs’ motivation to secure bowl eligibility should keep this one tight, and I think the line is giving Missouri too much love. Take Mississippi State as the dog.
Total Pick for Miss State vs. Mizzzou
- Over 51.5 ( 3 units)
Both of these teams have enough offensive talent to push this game over the total with with shaky quarterback play. Mississippi State averages 32 points per game, while Missouri puts up 33.3. I expect the Bulldogs to have trouble slowing down Missouri’s rushing attack, but their own balanced offense should still find success through the air against the Tigers’ defense. Also, turnovers could easily swing momentum and set up short fields for Mississippi State. All things considered, I’m backing the over.
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