Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 1, 2025
Use Code WWWC A pair of SEC programs collide on the gridiron in the Razorback State as the Mississippi State Bulldogs travel to take on the Arkansas Razorbacks on Saturday afternoon and we have you covered with our Mississippi State vs. Arkansas prediction. Mississippi State fell 45-38 in overtime at home to #22 Texas in their previous game last Saturday, covering the line as an 8.5-point underdog. Arkansas was downed 33-24 at home by Auburn last Saturday in their previous game, losing outright as a 2.5-point favorite. In the all-time series between the teams, the Razorbacks own a 19-14-1 advantage, including a 58-25 road win in the most recent matchup on October 26, 2024. Read more about this Mississippi State vs. Arkansas prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Mississippi State Looking to Bounce Back From Missed Opportunities
Mississippi State had #22 Texas on the ropes but allowed the Longhorns to rally before succumbing in overtime last week. The Bulldogs enter this game 4-4 overall, 0-4 in SEC play, as they try to get back on track. Against Texas, Mississippi State was even at seven after the opening quarter, led 24-14 at the half and 31-14 after three quarters. The Bulldogs led 38-21 with 12:29 remaining but gave up 17 unanswered points, the last coming on a 79-yard punt return with 1:42 to play in regulation. Mississippi State gave up a touchdown in the first touchdown of overtime and was stopped on the ensuing possession to wind up with the loss. The Bulldogs held a 445-428 edge in total offense and picked up 25 first downs while allowing 22 while being narrowly edged 30:01 to 29:59 in time of possession in the game. Both teams turned the ball over once in the contest.
On the year, the Bulldogs are 54th in the nation in passing offense with 246.6 yards per contest, while they are 59th in rushing offense by picking up 164.1 yards per contest. Mississippi State is 44th in the FBS in scoring offense with an average of 32.6 points per game, while they are 59th in scoring defense by allowing 23.4 points per contest. Blake Shapen has hit 150 of 227 passes for 1,906 yards with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions while adding a score on the ground this season. Kamario Taylor (three of four, 47 yards, TD, 92 rush yards, TD) and Luke Kromenhoek (two of four, 20 yards, 24 rush yards, TD) are next in line on the depth chart. Fluff Bothwell is second on the team in the run game with 84 carries for 465 yards and six scores this season. Davon Booth (105 carries, 470 yards, six TD) and Xavier Gayten (17 carries, 125 yards, TD) are also in the mix. Anthony Evans III leads the team with 47 receptions for 542 yards and two scores on the year. Brenen Thompson (35 catches, 609 yards, six TD), Jordan Mosley (eight grabs, 168 yards, TD), Seydou Traore (19 receptions, 220 yards, four TD) and Ayden Williams (14 catches, 191 yards) are other options for Shapen to target. Kyle Ferrie is 31 of 31 on extra points and eight of 11 on field goal attempts with a long of 55 this season. Marlon Hauck is two of two on extra point attempts, but has not attempted a field goal this year.
Defensive lineman Will Whitson, along with offensive linemen Blake Steen and Brennan Smith, are out here. Tackle Albert Reese IV is questionable, while Bothwell, who missed the last two games with a leg injury sustained against Texas A&M, is on track to return to action.
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Razorbacks Hoping to Get in Win Column
Arkansas was dropped at home to Auburn in their previous contest, suffering their sixth straight loss in the process. The Razorbacks fell to 2-6 overall and 0-4 in the SEC on the season entering this contest. Against Auburn, Arkansas trailed 7-0 after one quarter and 10-0 early in the second before scoring 21 unanswered points to lead 21-10 at the half. The Razorbacks were up 24-16 after three quarters, only to be outscored 17-0 in the final stanza to wind up with the loss. Arkansas was outgained 380-331 in total offense, lost the first down battle 22-14, dominated 37:40 to 22:20 in time of possession, and turned the ball over four times while forcing one takeaway. Both teams scored on pick-sixes in the contest.
The Razorbacks enter this game 20th in the nation in passing offense as they average 285.9 yards per game through the air while they are 22nd in rushing offense by racking up 205 yards per contest on the ground this season. Arkansas is 25th in the FBS in scoring offense with an average of 35.5 points per game, while they are 120th in scoring defense as they give up 32.8 points a contest this year. Taylen Green is 152 of 243 passing for 1,398 yards with 18 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He is second on the team in rushing with 90 carries for 603 yards and five scores. KJ Jackson (six of eight, 109 yards, TD, 21 rush yards, TD) and Trever Jackson (zero of one) have seen limited action. Mike Washington Jr. is the anchor in the ground game as he has 108 carries for 712 yards and five scores on the year. Rodney Hill (seven carries, 37 yards) and Braylen Russell (47 carries, 255 yards, four TD) have been useful in short bursts. In the passing game, O’Mega Blake leads the team with 48 catches for 643 yards and four scores on the year. Tight end Rohan Jones (12 catches, 408 yards, three TD), Raylen Sharpe (25 receptions, 343 yards, three TD), Jalen Brown (12 grabs, 167 yards, two TD), Jaden Platt (11 receptions, 176 yards) and CJ Brown (21 catches, 236 yards, three TD) are all over 125 yards receiving this season. Scott Starzyk has hit all 36 extra point attempts and stands eight of 10 on field goal attempts with a long of 53 on the year.
Wide receivers Monte Harrison and Jalen Brown, running back AJ Green, defensive back Quentavius Scandrett, defensive lineman David Oke along with tight end Andreas Paaske are out here. Offensive linemen Caden Kitler and E'Marion Harris are questionable.
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas Pick
Spread Pick for Mississippi State vs. Arkansas
- Mississippi State +5 (4 units)
Both teams are winless in conference play and come in on lengthy skids. Mississippi State is expected to get Bothwell back, giving them a solid duo of backs along with Booth. Shapen put up big numbers against Texas last week, even if it was in a losing effort. It’s safe to say that Arkansas is nothing like Texas when it comes to stopping opposing offenses. The Razorbacks are 0-3 under Bobby Petrino, giving up 112 points in that span. Arkansas is at home, but making them a favorite over anyone right now is a dicey proposition. Take the points and the Bulldogs in this contest.
Over/Under Pick for Mississippi State vs. Arkansas
- Over 65.5 (4 units)
Mississippi State has offensive firepower, putting up at least 34 points in five of their eight contests this season. The Bulldogs have sputtered a bit defensively, giving up at least 31 points in three of their four losses in this skid. Arkansas has gone over the total in six of its eight games on the year. The Razorbacks have scored at least 31 points six times in their eight games on the year. Defensively, they’ve been a sieve, allowing at least 32 points in each of their last six contests. This one has the potential to be a track meet, and this game winds up going over the number as a result.
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