Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 18, 2025
Use Code WWWC A pair of SEC programs collide on the gridiron in the Sunshine State as the Mississippi State Bulldogs travel to take on the Florida Gators Saturday afternoon, and we have you covered with our Mississippi State vs. Florida prediction. Mississippi State comes in off a bye last week. The Bulldogs were trounced 31-9 on the road by #6 Texas A&M back on October 4, failing to cover the line as a 16-point underdog. Florida was downed 34-17 on the road by that same Texas A&M squad, now ranked #5, last Saturday, failing to cover the line as a seven-point underdog. In the all-time series between the teams, the Gators own a 35-19-2 advantage and have won the last two meetings, including a 45-28 road win in the most recent matchup on September 21, 2024. Read more about this Mississippi State vs. Florida prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
Mississippi State Trying to Get Back in Win Column
Mississippi State started the year 4-0, but they came in with two straight losses on the books after taking a beating from #6 Texas A&M in their previous game on October 4. The Bulldogs are rested after a bye last week and enter this game 4-2 overall, 0-2 in SEC play, as they try to get back on track. Against Texas A&M, Mississippi State led 3-0 after the opening quarter, though their scoring drive was hardly impressive as they went 22 yards in 15 plays. That was the high-water mark for the Bulldogs as they gave up the next 28 points, failing to score again until midway through the fourth quarter. Mississippi State was drubbed 479-219 in total offense, gave up 23 first downs while picking up 14, lost time of possession by a 38:17 to 21:43 margin and turned the ball over twice while recording just one takeaway in the game.
On the year, the Bulldogs are 91st in the nation in passing offense with 211.2 yards per contest, while they are tied for 42nd in rushing offense by picking up 184.3 yards per contest. Mississippi State is 45th in the FBS in scoring offense with an average of 33.7 points per gam,e while they are 39th in scoring defense by allowing 19.8 points per contest. Blake Shapen has hit 100 of 149 passes for 1,201 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions while adding 19 yards and a score on the ground this season. Kamario Taylor (two of three, 46 yards, TD, 79 rush yards) and Luke Kromenhoek (two of four, 20 yards, 24 rush yards, TD) are next in line on the depth chart. Fluff Bothwell leads the team in the run game with 84 carries for 465 yards and six scores this season. Davon Booth (59 carries, 266 yards, four TD) and Xavier Gayten (eight carries, 95 yards, TD) are also in the mix. Anthony Evans III leads the team with 31 receptions for 364 yards and two scores on the year. Brenan Thompson (22 catches, 378 yards, four TD), Jordan Mosley (seven grabs, 159 yards, TD), Seydou Traore (11 receptions, 124 yards, three TD) and Ayden Williams (nine catches, 119 yards) are other options for Shapen to target. Kyle Ferrie is 23 of 23 on extra points and seven of eight on field goal attempts with a long of 55 this season. Marlon Hauck is two of two on extra point attempts but has not attempted a field goal this year.
Defensive lineman Will Whitson, offensive linemen Blake Steen plus Brennan Smith and Bothwell are all expected to miss this contest. Safety Isaac Smith and offensive lineman Albert Smith IV are listed as questionable.
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End of the Line for Napier and the Gators?
Florida lost for the fourth time in five games as they were beaten soundly by #5 Texas A&M last Saturday. The leash is short for coach Billy Napier and the Gators, who fell to 2-4 overall and stand 1-2 in SEC action on the year. Against Texas A&M, Florida hung tough in the opening quarter before the Aggies took control of the contest. The Gators were even at 14 after the opening quarter but were outscored 20-3 the rest of the way to wind up with the loss. Florida was outgained 417-319 in total offense, allowed 19 first downs while picking up 15, lost time of possession by a 33:42 to 26:18 margin and turned the ball over twice while forcing one takeaway in the loss.
The Gators are 71st in the nation in passing offense this season with an average of 227.3 yards per game, while they are 109th on the ground with an average of 120.3 yards per contest. Florida stands 106th in the FBS with an average of 22.3 points a contest, while they are 38th in scoring defense as they allow 19.8 points a game. DJ Lagway is 125 of 188 passing for 1,233 yards with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions while adding four yards on the ground. Tramell Jones Jr. (12 of 18, 131 yards, two TD, 14 rush yards) has seen limited action under center. Jadan Baugh leads the team with 94 carries for 461 yards and three scores this season. Ja’Kobi Jackson (27 carries, 98 yards) and Duke Clark (15 carries, 58 yards) are next in line. Vernell Brown III leads the team with 27 receptions for 368 yards on the year. Eugene Wilson III (18 catches, 118 yards), tight end Hayden Hansen (18 receptions, 175 yards, TD), Dallas Wilson (nine grabs, 131 yards, three TD) and J. Michael Sturdivant (12 catches, 171 yards, TD) have each gone over the 100-yard receiving mark this season. Trey Smack is 15 of 15 on extra point attempts and nine of 12 on field goal attempts with a long of 56 this season.
Florida has a lengthy injury report heading into this game. Running backs Treyaun Webb and Duke Clark, defensive backs Aaron Gates and Dijon Johnson, defensive lineman Caleb Banks and edge rusher LJ McCray are all expected to miss the game. Defensive backs Jordan Castell and Cormani McClain, running back Ja’Kobi Jackson, tight end Tony Livingston, offensive lineman Devon Manuel and defensive lineman Brien Taylor Jr. are each questionable for this contest.
Mississippi State vs. Florida Pick
Spread Pick for Mississippi State vs. Florida
- Mississippi State +9.5 (4 units)
Both teams were hammered by Texas A&M in their last game but Mississippi State has the advantage with a bye last week. The Bulldogs won their first four games and took Tennessee to overtime before getting dropped by Texas A&M. Florida is 2-4 on the year and while they did upend Arch Manning and Texas, they have a lengthy list of missing pieces. While the Bothwell injury and likely absence is a concern for the visitors, Mississippi State can still do damage through the air. The Bulldogs are the better offensive team and there is no reason a 2-4 Florida squad should be giving nearly double digits, even in the swamp. Take the points and the Bulldogs here.
Over/Under for Mississippi State vs. Florida
- Under 51.5 (4 units)
Mississippi State has seen the under post a 4-2 mark in their six games so far this season. They stayed under the mark in both of their road games on the year, a win over Southern Miss and the loss to Texas A&M this season. Florida enters this game having seen the under post a 4-2 mark in their six games this season. The Gators are 2-1 at home this season and they have stayed under the number in two of those three contests. Florida is a bottom-quarter team in the FBS in scoring offense and both teams are well above average in scoring defense. Take the under here as a result.
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