Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 4, 2025
Use Code WWWC Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-1) vs. Texas A&M Aggies (4-0)
The 2025 college football betting action continues Saturday, October 4, with the Mississippi State Bulldogs taking on the Texas A&M Aggies in the SEC showdown at Kyle Field in College Station, TX, so we’ve prepared the Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M prediction to get you covered.
The Aggies aim for their third straight victory over the Bulldogs. After a 51-10 thrashing of Mississippi State at Kyle Field in 2023, the Aggies beat the Bulldogs 34-24 as 21-point road favorites in 2024.
Let’s take a closer look at this Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 6 of the 2025 NCAAF season. The kick-off is set at 7:30 PM ET, and the Aggies are 14.5-point home favorites with a total of 55.5 points.
Mississippi State is coming off a heartbreaking defeat
The Mississippi State Bulldogs’ winning streak came to an end last Saturday. After four consecutive victories over Southern Miss 34-17, Arizona State 24-20, Alcorn State 63-0, and Northern Illinois 38-10, the Bulldogs (4-1; 5-0 ATS; 2-3 O/U) suffered a 41-34 overtime loss against the No. 15 Tennessee Volunteers.
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The Bulldogs fought bravely against the Vols, covering a 7.5-point spread in front of the home fans. Mississippi State had a 34-27 lead with 7:59 left to play in the fourth quarter, but couldn’t hold on. The Bulldogs racked up 378 total yards, won the turnover battle 3-2, and went 8-for-19 on third down.
However, both of Mississippi State’s turnovers turned into defensive touchdowns. Tennessee had 11 tackles for loss, and the Vols sacked senior QB Blake Shapen five times. Shapen went 18-of-29 for 180 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, while sophomore RB Fluff Bothwell led the way with 23 carries for 134 yards and two touchdowns.
“They had sacks, and there were other times where it was just pressure, and it affected Blake. They did a good job,” Bulldogs coach Jeff Lebby said. “We’ve got to play better and smarter. We’ve got guys that are good enough to do it, and we’ve got to go do it.”
The Bulldogs lean on their ground game, tallying 204.8 rushing yards per game (tied for 33rd in the country). Fluff Bothwell and Davon Booth have combined for 612 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, while Blake Shapen has thrown for 1,059 yards, eight touchdowns, and three interceptions.
On the other side of the ball, the Bulldogs allow 17.6 points per game (32nd) on 135.4 rushing yards (63rd) and 170.2 passing yards (27th). They force two turnovers per game, enough for the 11th-most in the country.
Texas A&M hopes to stay on track
The No. 6 Texas A&M Aggies (4-0; 1-3 ATS; 3-1 O/U) aim for their fifth straight victory. After a couple of home wins over UTSA 42-24 and Utah State 44-22, the Aggies enjoyed a bye in Week 3. They outlasted Notre Dame 41-40 on the road in Week 4 and Auburn 16-10 at home in Week 5.
The Aggies overcame a 10-point deficit against Notre Dame. They outgained the Fighting Irish 488-429 in total yards, and senior RB Le’Veon Moss led the charge with 20 totes for 81 yards and three touchdowns. Sophomore QB Marcel Reed completed just 17 of his 37 passing attempts, tossing for 360 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception, while sophomore WR Mario Craves had seven catches for 207 yards and a touchdown.
Last week, the Aggies outgained Auburn 414-177 in total yards, but failed to cover a 6.5-point spread. Texas A&M had a whopping 13 penalties for 119 yards and converted just three of its 14 third-down attempts. Reed went 15-of-22 for 207 yards and an interception, while Moss carried the pigskin 21 times for 139 yards and a touchdown.
“We won two games without playing our best football," Aggies coach Mike Elko said. “That is a testament to character and culture and just grinding.”
Marcel Reed has thrown for 1,076 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions so far this season. Le’Veon Moss has 307 rushing yards and five touchdowns on his season tally, while Mario Craver and Kevin Concepcion have combined for 817 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.
The Aggies score 35.8 points per game (39th in the nation) and allow 24.0 points in return (tied for 72nd). Their defense is 42nd in rushing yards (117.3 per game) and 49th in passing yards (190.0).
Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M Pick
Spread Pick for Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M
- Mississippi State +14.5 (5 units)
I’m backing Mississippi State to hang around and beat the number. The Bulldogs’ defense is good enough to slow the Aggies down, and Mississippi State will rely on its ground game to put some points on the scoreboard.
The Aggies are arguably a better team than the Bulldogs, but covering a 14.5-point spread might be a tall task. The Bulldogs have been perfect against the number so far this season, and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five showings on the road. On the other side, the Aggies are 1-8 ATS in their previous nine games overall and 0-5 ATS in their last five outings at home.
Over/Under Pick for Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M
- Under 55.5 (5 units)
Both teams will pound the rock in this game, even though their run defenses have done a good job so far this term. The Bulldogs have a great one-two punch in Fluff Bothwell and Davon Booth. On the other side, Le’Veon Moss is having a nice season, and the Aggies will continue to feed their starting running back.
The over has hit in four straight meetings between these two schools, but I’m going with the under in this game. Mississippi State has to control the clock and try to rush as much as possible. That’s the only way the Bulldogs will stand a chance of upsetting the Aggies. Of course, the Bulldogs will have to bring their best defense.
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