Missouri State Bears vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, October 8, 2025

A pair of Conference USA programs take to the field looking to pick up a win in the Lone Star State when the Missouri State Bears (2-3, 0-1 CUSA) travel to face the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (1-4, 0-1 CUSA) on Wednesday night, and we have you covered with our Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction. Missouri State comes in off a bye last week. They were downed 27-22 at home September 27 and failed to cover the line as a four-point underdog. Middle Tennessee had a bye last week. They fell 24-16 at Kennesaw State on September 27, failing to cover the line as a seven-point underdog. As this is Missouri State’s first season as an FBS squad, this marks the first meeting between the squads as FBS opponents. Read more about this Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction! Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!

Missouri State Seeking to Even Mark

Missouri State battled against Western Kentucky in their previous game, only to end up falling short at home. The Bears enter this game 2-3 overall and stand 0-1 in Conference USA on the year as they look to even their mark on the year. Against Western Kentucky, Missouri State was down 10-9 at the half and took a 16-10 lead on the opening drive of the second half before giving up 17 unanswered points to trail 27-16 early in the fourth quarter. The Bears got within five but were unable to complete the comeback, sending them to defeat. Missouri State was outgained 476-414 in total offense, gave up 25 first downs while picking up 21 and lost time of possession by a 31:28 to 28:32 margin. There were no turnovers in the contest.

For the season, the Bears are 43rd in the nation in passing offense with an average of 261.8 yards per contest, while they are 117th in the nation in rushing offense with 109.6 yards per game. Missouri State is 107th in the FBS in scoring offense with an average of 21.6 points per contest, while they are 117th in scoring defense by allowing 31.6 points per game. Jacob Clark is 88 of 135 passing for 1,195 yards with eight touchdowns and six interceptions while adding 23 yards and two scores on the ground. Deuce Bailey (seven of 16, 57 yards, TD, 64 rush yards) and Cole Feuerbacher (six of eight, 28 yards, three rush yards) have also seen action. Shomari Lawrence leads the run game with 66 carries for 286 yards and two scores. Ramone Green Jr. (18 carries, 102 yards) and Reggie Branch II (six carries, 27 yards) are next up in the mix. Dash Luke leads the team with 22 receptions for 310 yards and two scores. Jmariye Robinson (13 catches, 212 yards, TD), Green Jr. (12 grabs, 179 yards, TD), Tristan Gardner (11 receptions, 171 yards, two TD) and Ronnel Johnson (10 catches, 132 yards) are each over 100 receiving yards on the season. Yousef Obeid is 12 of 12 on extra point attempts and six of 10 on field goal attempts with a long of 49 on the year.

The Bears have plenty of injuries to monitor but the biggest one is Clark. He was injured in the second quarter against Western Kentucky and did not return. Coach Ryan Beard said he is day-to-day. If he can’t go, Bailey will run the offense.

Blue Raiders Hoping to Find Momentum

Middle Tennessee’s offensive woes continued as they were dropped by Kennesaw State in their previous contest. The Blue Raiders fell to 1-4 overall and are 0-1 in Conference USA action on the year. Against Kennesaw State, Middle Tennessee trailed 7-0 just 95 seconds into the game and never recovered. The Blue Raiders were down 21-3 after the opening quarter and got no closer than 21-16 on the opening play of the fourth quarter. Middle Tennessee held a 460-353 edge in total offense, racked up 24 first downs while allowing 17 and controlled the clock by a 38:28 to 21:32 margin yet took the loss. The Blue Raiders did turn the ball over twice while recording just one takeaway.

On the season, the Blue Raiders are 65th in the FBS in passing offense as they average 233.6 yards per game through the air. Middle Tennessee stands just 132nd among the 136 FBS teams to play so far this season in rushing offense, as they average 82.2 yards per game on the ground. The Blue Raiders are 129th in scoring offense with an average of 16.4 points per game. Middle Tennessee struggles defensively as well, ranking 114th in scoring defense by allowing 31 points per contest. Nicholas Vattiato is 108 of 184 passing for 1,125 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions this season. Roman Gagliano is one of one for five yards as the backup quarterback this season. Jekail Middlebrook leads the team on the ground with 59 carries for 340 yards and two scores this season. Rickey Hunt Jr. (21 carries, 81 yards) and DJ Taylor (four carries, 24 yards) are also in the mix on the ground. Nahzae Cox is the team’s top target as he has reeled in 24 passes for 341 yards and four scores on the year. Myles Butler (19 catches, 180 yards), Cam’ron Lacy (13 receptions, 159 yards), Middlebrook (18 grabs, 146 yards), Amorion Walker (11 receptions, 130 yards, TD) and Hunter Tipton (10 grabs, 105 yards, TD) are each over the century mark in receiving yards on the year. Jacob Hathaway has hit all eight extra point attempts and four of five field goal attempts this season, with a long of 50 this season.

Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee Prediction

Spread Pick for Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee

• Missouri State -2.5 (4 units)

Granted, a lot of this hinges on whether Clark can go for the Bears, as turning the offense over to a true freshman is suboptimal. With that said, Middle Tennessee has been held to 16 points or less in four of their five games on the year. Ranking in the bottom 10 in the FBS in scoring offense and in the bottom 25 in scoring defense is a bad pairing if you want to have any success. The fact that Missouri State hung tough against an explosive Western Kentucky squad had to be a boost for a team in its first season as an FBS squad. It’s tough to get excited about the Blue Raiders, even at home. Give the points and take the Bears in this one.

Over/Under Pick for Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee

• Under 52.5 (4 units)

Neither team is an offensive powerhouse by any stretch of the imagination. Missouri State has stayed under the total in four of its five games this season. Their lone over came in a 73-13 loss to USC in the opener. Since that point, the Bears have seen combined point totals of 41, 38, 52 and 49 points, with the biggest number coming in a win over UT Martin, an FCS program. Middle Tennessee has stayed under the number in three of their five games on this year. The Blue Raiders' offense has sputtered, and it’s hard to see them generating much in the way of offensive production. Seeing both teams are below average offensively, take the under in this contest.