Missouri State vs. Arkansas State, Picks and Prediction, Thursday, December 18, 2025
Use Code WWWC Missouri State (7-5, 5-3 C-USA) will be trying to win their first bowl game when they face Arkansas State (6-6, 5-3 Sun Belt) in the Xbox Bowl on Thursday night. The game will be played at Ford Center At The Star in Frisco, Texas, and it is scheduled to begin at 9 PM. ET. Read on to find out which team picks up the win in this Bears vs. Red Wolves prediction. Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
The Bears are coming off a 42-30 loss to Louisiana Tech as 2.5-point favorites. The Red Wolves are coming off a 30-29 win over Appalachian State at even odds.
Arkansas State is 3-0 in three games against Missouri State. The last meeting between the two teams was in 2015.
Missouri State Trying To Snap Two-Game Losing Streak
The Bears won seven games in their first season as an FBS team and finished tied for fourth in the Conference USA. They lost their last two games of the season and will try to put an end to the streak and pick up their bowl win when they play on Thursday.
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They are playing with an interim coach as Ryan Beard left for the Coastal Carolina job last week. The interim coach will be Nick Petrino, the son of Bobby Petrino, who has been the Missouri State offensive coordinator since 2020.
Missouri State averages 25.4 points per game, which is 83rd in the country. They throw for 273.9 yards and rush for 117.9 yards per game.
Jacob Clark completed 65 percent of his passes for 2,895 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Shomari Lawrence has 183 carries for 964 yards and seven touchdowns, while Jmariyae Robinson has 40 catches for 536 yards and six touchdowns.
Missouri State is giving up 28.3 points per game, which is 90th in the nation. They’re giving up 231.4 passing yards and 168.6 rushing yards per game.
Arkansas State Going For Second Consecutive Win
The Red Wolves snapped their two-game losing streak with a win over Appalachian State to get their sixth win of the season, making them bowl eligible for the third consecutive season. They defeated Bowling Green in the 68 Ventures Bowl last season and will try to pick up their second straight bowl win when they play on Thursday.
Arkansas State averages 24.4 points per game, which is 91st in the nation. They throw for 257.2 yards and rush for 127.5 yards per game.
Jaylen Raynor completed 67 percent of his passes for 3,073 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. He also has 434 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. In his three-year career, he has thrown for 8,406 yards. Devin Spencer leads the team with 102 carries for 523 yards and two touchdowns, while Corey Rucker leads the team with 69 carries for 866 yards and three touchdowns.
Arkansas State is giving up 27.3 points per game, which is 83rd in the nation. They’re giving up 233 passing yards nd 168.6 rushing yards per game.
Injuries: TE-Jabari Bush (Undisclosed) and TE-Tyler Little (Undisclosed) are questionable for this game. WR-Nana Burris (Undisclosed) has been ruled out.
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Picks
Point Spread Pick for Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
- Missouri State Bears -1.5 (4 Units)
The Bears have the edge here because they played well offensively down the stretch, scoring at least 30 points in each their last three games. They can move the ball on the ground, and their passing game has also been good. The Red Wolves aren’t very good at defending the pass, and their run defense is worse, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Bears.
Arkansas State will have a hard time keeping up with the Bears because they’re not as good offensively. They have one of the worst ground games in the country and rely heavily on their passing game. The Bears don’t have to worry about them beating them on the ground, which will allow them to keep pressure on Raynor and force him to make costly mistakes. Go with Missouri State to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
- Over 54.5 (4 Units)
The Bears average 25.4 points per game. They throw the ball 54 percent of the time with the 21st-ranked passing game in the nation, and they’re facing a team that is 83rd against the pass and is giving up 27.3 points per game. The Red Wolves average 24.4 points per game. They throw the ball 55 percent of the time with the 42nd-ranked passing game in the nation, and they’re facing a team that is 79th against the pass and is giving up 28.3 points per game.
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