Missouri State vs. Liberty, Picks and Prediction, Saturday, November 8, 2025
Use Code WWWC Missouri State (5-3, 3-1 C-USA) will be trying to move up the conference standings when they visit Williams Stadium on Saturday afternoon to face Liberty (4-4, 3-1 C-USA) at 12 PM. ET. Read on to find out which team picks up the win in this Bears vs. Flames prediction. Don’t get penalized! Increase your bankroll with our NCAAF Betting Picks!
The Bears are coming off a 28-21 win over Florida International as three-point favorites. The Flames are coming off a 59-30 win over Delaware as 3.5-point favorites.
This will be the first meeting between the two teams.
Missouri State Going For Fourth Consecutive Win
The Bears bounced back from their loss to Western Kentucky with wins over Middle Tennessee State, New Mexico State, and Florida International.
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Missouri State averages 22.8 points per game, which is 101st in the nation. They throw for 254.1 yards and rush for 118.8 yards per game.
Jacob Clark has completed 64 percent of his passes for 1,641 yards, 13 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He also has 41 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Shomari Lawrence leads the team with 112 carries for 550 yards and four touchdowns, while Dash Luke leads the team with 25 catches for 339 yards and two touchdowns.
Missouri State is giving up 27 points per game, which is 87th in the nation. They’re giving up 250 passing yards and 147.6 rushing yards per game.
Injuries: WR-Dash Luke (Undisclosed), RB-Sage White (Undisclosed), K-Josh Deal (Undisclosed), and TE-Hayden Hagler (Undisclosed) are questionable for this game.
Liberty Going For Fourth Consecutive Win
The Flames bounced back from their four-game losing streak with three straight wins, which has put them in the mix for the Conference USA title. They will try to keep the momentum going and pick up their fourth straight win when they play on Saturday.
Liberty averages 24.1 points per game, which is 93rd in the nation. They throw for 197.4 yards and rush for 174 yards per game.
Ethan Vasko has completed 60 percent of his passes for 1,406 yards, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions. He also has 223 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Evan Dickens leads the team with 100 carries for 611 yards and eight touchdowns, while Donte Lee Jr. leads the team with 23 carries for 436 yards and four touchdowns.
Liberty is giving up 22.6 points per game, which is 54th in the nation. They’re giving up 197 passing yards and 175.9 rushing yards per game.
Injuries: QB-Ryan Burger (Undisclosed) has been ruled out of this game.
Missouri State vs. Liberty Picks
Point Spread Pick for Missouri State vs. Liberty
- Liberty Flames -8 (4 Units)
The Flames have won three of their four home games, while the Bears have won three straight games. Liberty has the edge here because they’re playing well offensively and have one of the best ground games in the country. They are facing a Missouri State team that has struggled against the run and is allowing opponents to gain 4.8 yards per carry, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Flames.
Missouri State will have a hard time keeping up offensively because they don’t run the ball well and relies heavily on their passing game. The Flames don’t have to worry about the Bears running the ball against them, which will allow them to keep pressure on Missouri State’s quarterback and force him to make costly mistakes. Go with Liberty to cover the spread.
Over/Under Pick for Missouri State vs. Liberty
- Under 51.5 (4 Units)
The Bears played under the total in their last six games, while the Flames played under the total in four of their last six games. Missouri State averages 22.8 points per game. They throw the ball 53 percent of the time with the 36th-ranked passing attack in the country. They are facing a team that is 30th against the pass and gave up 21.7 points per game in their last three games. The Flames average 24.1 points per game. They run the ball 59 percent of the time with the 45th-ranked ground game in the country. They’re facing a team that is 59th against the run and gave up 19.3 points per game in their last three games. Don’t expect these teams to score enough points to push the score over the total.
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