Kansas vs. Missouri Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 6, 2025
One of college football's best rivalries is renewed this weekend and will be played on Saturday, Sept. 6. The Border War is back for the first time since 2011. Read our Kansas Jayhawks vs Missouri Tigers prediction along with our other NCAAF Betting Picks!
Conference realignment has killed historic rivalries and none more than the Border War. The hostile rivalry is back for the first time in 14 years. Missouri enters the game with a 1-0 record after dismantling Central Arkansas. The Jayhawks are 2-0 with wins over Fresno State and Wagner. These two universities hate each other with the rivalry dating back to 1891. This should be a really great matchup with kick-off set for 2:30 P.M. EST.
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Kansas travels to Columbia after 2-0 start
Kansas is 2-0 this season as they are entering Saturday’s matchup in fine form. The Jayhawks opened the season with a 31-7 win over Fresno State at home in Week 0. This is the first matchup for Kansas against Missouri since 2011. Kansas’ last win against Missouri came in 2008.
In their last game, Kansas defeated Wagner 46-7 at home on Friday, August. 29. The Jayhawks left zero doubt who the better team was as they jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. Starting quarterback Jalon Daniels threw for 280 yards on 18-for-25 passing and four touchdowns. He did toss an interception in the win. It was a big rushing game for Daniel Hishaw Jr. as he rushed for 89 yards and a touchdown. Emmanuel Henderson Jr. led the team with six catches and 130 yards and two touchdowns.
Daniels is in his sixth year as the Jayhawks’ quarterback. In his career, he has thrown 52 touchdowns and 25 interceptions. Kansas’ defense is much improved from last year to this year. They haven’t allowed more than one touchdown to be scored on them this season.
"These games, they can be intense,” Kansas head coach Lance Leipold said about the rivalry. "But it's still a matter about how you prepare your focus and everything you put into it, and then going out and executing on game day. As I say, we always want to be an enthusiastic team not an emotional team. Your emotions sometimes can take in directions that can be counterproductive. So I want to make sure that this team is well prepared and focused on playing their best football to date, because we're playing a very good football team."
Kansas is 1-1 against the spread this season. They covered as a 13.5-point favorite against Fresno State in Week 0. The Jayhawks followed it by losing against the spread versus Wagner. They were 46.5 point favorites against Wagner and only won by 39 points. The under is 2-0 during the first two games of the season for Kansas, too.
Missouri dominates Central Arkansas in season opener
Missouri comes into Saturday’s game with a 1-0 record. They dominated FCS Central Arkansas in their first game of the season last week. The Tigers have a 56-55-9 record over Kansas during this rivalry series which dates back to 1891. Missouri has defeated Kansas in five of their last six games. But, the previous matchup against their border foe came in 2011.
Against Central Arkansas, Missouri was explosive in all facets of the game as they earned a 61-6 win on Thursday, Aug. 28. The only points for the Bears came in the final 20 seconds of the game when all of the Tigers’ starters had been pulled.
Missouri’s starting quarterback Beau Pribula was impressive in his debut. The Penn State transfer threw for 283 yards and two touchdowns on 23-for-28 passing. He also added 65 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Sophomore running back Ahmad Hardy rushed for 100 yards and a touchdown, too. Marquis Johnson was Pribula’s top target with 134 yards and a touchdown on five receptions. Missouri moved the ball at will as they went 9-for-13 on third down.
The Missouri defense allowed just 227 yards of offense and they forced the Bears to go 2-for-13 on third down. The Tigers also forced two turnovers in the win. Damon Wilson II led the team with two sacks, too.
It’s a hard game to react to for Missouri fans and bettors. The Tigers were favored by 38.5 points against Central Arkansas. The performance did show that their offense looked sound with a new quarterback running head coach Eli Drinkwitz’s system.
"So there's a lot of things to improve on: offensively, at the line of scrimmage, ball security in the pocket, blocking on the perimeter, protections with the tailbacks; defensively, tackling in space, setting the edge, not getting washed in the interior, having better space in coverage in the secondary; and on special teams, being more physical and having fewer penalties that set us back. Tons of stuff to improve on, and that's what we're focusing on this week,” Drinkwitz said this week during his press conference. \
Kansas vs. Missouri Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,570.00 |
| 2 |  Dan Kaiser | +1,223.00 |
| 3 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,000.00 |
| 4 |  Earle Sports Bets | +916.00 |
| 5 |  David Hess | +706.00 |
Spread Pick for Kansas vs. Missouri
- Kansas Jayhawks +6.5 (5 units)
This is the first time the Border War has been held in Columbia since 2006. The previous five iterations were held in Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium. The Jayhawks' last win in Missouri came in 2004 and behind head coach Lance Leipold, I think Kansas has a great chance of causing the upset. Jalon Daniels is one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 12 when healthy, right now, he is healthy. He’s made all of the throws that have been asked of him this season. The Jayhawks’ offense has looked explosive while the defense has not allowed chunk yards.
Missouri is coming off of a big win over Central Arkansas. Everything went according to plan for them. But, when Kansas’ defense hits them win the mouth, the Tigers’ offense will face their first adversity, which may be tough for a team with so many new pieces. Kansas’ strength is in their experience and they have a lot of it. It’s a tough rivalry game on the road, expect Kansas to play their game and keep it close throughout against their Border War rival.
Take Kansas to cover.
Over/Under Pick for Kansas vs. Missouri
- Under 51 (5 units)
Kansas has already played two games this year. Yes, they were to two inferior opponents, but even the backups haven’t allowed many chances for opposing offenses. Kansas hasn’t allowed more than seven points this year. Missouri’s defense looked strong in their opener against Central Arkansas, too. In a rivalry game, points are always hard to come by and the two defenses are much better than in recent memory thanks to improved pass rushes. Expect a low-scoring game with possessions at a premium.
Take the under
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