Navy vs. Memphis, Picks, Odds, Preview and Prediction, Nov. 27, 2025
Use Code WWWC There's a big AAC matchup on Thanksgiving Day led by this Navy vs. Memphis prediction. Navy (8-2, 6-1 AAC) is in a three-way tie for first place with Tulane and North Texas, while the Tigers are 8-3 overall and 4-3 in the league, looking to end the regular season on a good note. If the Mids win, they put themselves in the AAC title game. Last season, these teams met in an absolute shootout in late September with the Mids winning 56-44. Check out more college football winners and also sorts of free holiday treats in football, basketball, and hockey on Winners and Whiners.
Quick Picks and Prediction on Navy vs. Memphis
If you're in a rush, we've got your score, picks and total below.
- Navy 45-Memphis 35
- Spread: Navy +5.5
- Over 59.5
Navy vs. Memphis Odds and Line Movement
Check out the opening odds for this Navy vs. Memphis prediction as well as the total, money line, and then we have the line moves as well for Navy vs. Memphis.
Opening Odds for Navy vs. Memphis
- Spread: Navy +5.5 (-108)/Memphis -5.5 (-112)
- Total: 058.5 (-110)/u58.5 (-110) same
- ML: Navy +180/Memphis -220
(odds from FanDuel)
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Navy vs. Memphis Line Movement
- Spread: Navy +5.5 (-108)/Memphis -5.5 (-112) moves to Navy +5.5/Memphis -5.5 (-110)
- Total: 058.5 (-110)/u58.5 (-110)
- ML: Navy +180/Memphis -220 moves to Navy +176/Memphis -210
Key Matchups for Navy vs. Memphis
Mids have different goals than most teams
Sure, Navy wants to beat the Tigers to clinch a first-place tie in the AAC. The Mids had lost two straight in a row (North Texas, Notre Dame) before beating USF last week 41-38 at home as a 9.5-point dog. The Bulls produced 556 yards of offense but lost because they couldn't stop the run (338 yards) and allowed QB Braxton Woodson to rush for 103 yards and two TDs and pass for 39 yards. Blake Horvath got the start at QB and rushed for 60 yards while passing for 147 yards and a TD. FB Alex Tecza led the ground attack with 126 yards and a TD. He also had a one-yard receiving TD.
Navy, running a version of the Wing-T, is led by Horvath, who has 1,290 passing yards with eight TDs and five INTs, while rushing for 986 yards and 13 TDs. Navy's slotback Eli Heidenreich is their most dangerous weapon since he has 396 yards rushing and 3 TDs and 38 catches for 741 yards and four TDs. Defense has been a problem for the Mids, who are struggling against the pass, allowing 264 yards per game (109th).
Tigers looking to stop their streak
Memphis can score some points, but they also give up a ton. They fell to Tulane 38-32 on Nov. 7 and lost at ECU 31-27 last week as a 3-point dog. The Tigers had a 27-24 lead in the fourth quarter, but allowed a 31-yard TD pass with 1:08 left from Katin Houser to Payton Magnum to give the Pirates the game-winning TD.
The Tigers amassed 457 yards of offense and had the ball for 35:33, but allowed 332 passing yards. Sutton Smith rushed for 109 yards and a TD, while QB Brendon Lewis passed for 209 yards with a TD and a pick and ran for 61 yards and a score. Lewis is a solid dual-threat QB with 2,395 yards passing and 582 yards rushing with 21 total TDs and six picks.
Memphis is averaging 36.2 points per game (29th) and allowing 239.3 yards per game in the air (72nd).
Betting Trends for Navy vs. Memphis
Navy:
- 5-1 Over last 6 games.
- 1-6 ATS last 7 games.
Memphis:
- 8-3 ATS last 11 games.
Key Injuries and Analysis for Navy vs. Memphis
Navy:
no key recent injuries
Memphis:
- CB C. Logan (undisclosed) is questionable.
- CB C. Miller (undisclosed) is questionable.
- C J. Johnson (undisclosed) is questionable.
Navy vs. Memphis ATS and Over/Under Betting Picks
Check out the pick and total of the Memphis vs. Navy game below, along with an analysis featuring logic and sttas.
Navy vs. Memphis Spread
- Spread: Navy +5.5 (4 units)
Total for Memphis vs. Navy
- Over 59.5 (4 units)
Navy vs. Memphis Final Score Prediction
- Navy 45-Memphis 35
This is going to be a shootout, but what else is new? Last season, there were 110 points scored (56-44 Navy) as Navy broke a five-game losing streak in the series. Navy controls this game because their offense is unpredictable. Yes, they still run the ball most of the time, but it could be a FB draw, a QB draw, a WR run from Heidenreich and then you have the Braxton Woodson factor as a QB who can spell Horvath and give them a big, strong runner who has 414 yards rushing with six TDs this season. Memphis is solid against the run, but that won't matter. This is not your normal running squad. It's the number one rushing team in the nation at 308.2 yards per game, who can also throw it some (140ypg). Navy's defense isn't going to shut Memphis down, so we're looking at about 80 points combined in this game. Take Navy and the Over.
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