NC State Wolfpack vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction and Picks - October 11th, 2025
Use Code WWWC College Football action on Saturday afternoon, and we have an NC State vs Notre Dame Prediction ready to rock and roll. The Wolfpack comes into this contest off a strong 56-10 home win over Campbell, which puts them at 4-2 on the year. Notre Dame is now 3-2 on the year after a 28-7 home win over Boise State. Can NC State pull an upset in this one? Can the Irish keep their playoff hopes alive? Read on to see our NC State vs Notre Dame prediction.
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Wolfpack Destroy Campbell At Home
NC State rolls into South Bend at 4–2 after a 56–10 blowout win over Campbell, and while the opponent was overmatched, the Wolfpack’s offensive rhythm was undeniable. Quarterback CJ Bailey was nearly perfect, going 20-of-23 for 337 yards and four touchdowns, and he’s now up to 1,660 passing yards on the season with a 74.6% completion rate. Daylan “Hollywood” Smothers added 123 rushing yards on just four carries and a touchdown. He continues to be one of the most explosive backs in the ACC. NC State ranks 31st nationally in total offense (447.7 yards/game) and 45th in scoring (33.8 points/game), with a balanced attack that includes 282.3 passing and 165.3 rushing yards per game. Terrell Anderson and Noah Rogers give Bailey reliable vertical threats, and the Wolfpack have scored 27 total touchdowns through six games.
Defensively, however, NC State has struggled to match its offensive output. The Wolfpack rank 78th in total defense (375.0 yards/game), 77th in scoring defense (25.0 points/game), and 101st against the pass (243.2 yards/game). They’ve allowed 17 touchdowns and are giving up 4.3 yards per carry and a 64.9% completion rate. Third-down defense has been a major liability—ranking 113th nationally with opponents converting 44.1% of attempts—and their -4 turnover margin has created short fields and momentum swings. While the front seven has held up reasonably well against the run, the secondary has been vulnerable to deep shots and misdirection, and penalties (33 flags for 302 yards) have stalled drives and extended possessions.
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To stay competitive against Notre Dame, NC State will need to lean heavily on its offensive efficiency and protect the football. Bailey’s accuracy and Smothers’ explosiveness give them a chance to challenge Notre Dame’s pass defense, which ranks near the bottom nationally. But they’ll need to finish drives and avoid falling behind early, especially in a hostile environment. The Wolfpack have yet to beat a ranked opponent this season, and this game represents a chance to flip the narrative. If the defense can generate pressure and force CJ Carr into uncomfortable throws, NC State has the offensive firepower to keep pace. But they’ll need their most disciplined, mistake-free performance of the season to pull off the upset.
Defense Stands Tall In Win Over Boise State
Notre Dame enters Week 7 ranked No. 16 and riding a three-game win streak, including a 28–7 win over Boise State that showcased their offensive balance and defensive improvement. Quarterback CJ Carr threw for 189 yards and two touchdowns on 65.2% passing, and added 25 rushing yards on three carries. The Irish rank 23rd nationally in total offense (461.6 yards/game) and 13th in scoring (40.8 points/game), with a balanced attack that includes 283.0 passing and 178.6 rushing yards per game. Running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have combined for over 800 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns, while Jordan Faison and Malachi Fields lead a deep receiving corps that’s averaging over 16 yards per catch. Notre Dame has scored 25 touchdowns and converted 50.9% of third downs, ranking 20th nationally in that category.
Defensively, Notre Dame has been solid but not dominant. The Irish rank 77th in total defense (375.2 yards/game), 70th in scoring defense (23.6 points/game), and 116th against the pass (258.0 yards/game). They’ve allowed 11 touchdowns and are giving up 59.5% completions and 6.9 yards per attempt. The run defense has been more reliable, ranking 42nd nationally and allowing just 116.2 yards per game. Notre Dame’s strength lies in situational execution—they’ve posted a +5 turnover margin and have been efficient in red zone defense, often forcing field goals instead of touchdowns. That discipline has helped them win their last three games by an average of 30 points, despite giving up yardage between the 20s.
Notre Dame’s path to victory hinges on controlling tempo and exploiting NC State’s defensive weaknesses. CJ Carr has shown steady improvement each week, and the Irish have covered the spread when favored by 22.5 or more. Their red zone efficiency and ability to finish drives give them an edge, especially against a Wolfpack defense that struggles on third downs and in coverage. If the Irish can protect Carr and keep the run game humming, they should be able to wear down NC State’s front and create separation. But they’ll need to tighten up their pass defense and avoid giving Bailey clean pockets—because if NC State gets rolling early, this could turn into a shootout.
NC State vs Notre Dame Pick
NC State vs Notre Dame Spread Pick
- Notre Dame -22.5 (4 Units)
Notre Dame -22.5 is a logical play in a game where margin matters as much as the win. The Irish are ranked No. 16 and know that style points are critical if they want to stay in the playoff conversation. They’ve won their last three games by an average of 30 points and have covered comfortably when favored by three scores or more. CJ Carr continues to improve, and the offense ranks top 15 nationally in scoring (40.8 points/game) with a balanced attack that can exploit NC State’s shaky secondary. With a +5 turnover margin and a red zone conversion rate near perfection, Notre Dame has the tools to build a lead and extend it.
NC State’s defense has been vulnerable all season, especially on third downs and in coverage. They rank 113th in third-down defense and 101st against the pass, and they’ve allowed 17 touchdowns through six games. CJ Bailey and Daylan Smothers can move the ball, but the Wolfpack’s -4 turnover margin and penalty issues make it hard to trust them in a hostile environment. Notre Dame’s run game should wear down the front seven, and if the Irish defense can force Bailey into hurried throws, this could snowball quickly. With playoff urgency and a clear talent edge, Notre Dame has every reason to push for a statement win.
NC State vs Notre Dame Over/Under Pick
- Under 60.5 (5 Units)
Under 60.5 is a smart lean in a matchup where both teams have explosive potential but are more likely to trade sustained drives than quick strikes. Notre Dame’s defense has tightened up in the red zone and ranks top 50 against the run, while NC State’s offense—though efficient—leans on ball control and short-area execution. CJ Bailey and CJ Carr are accurate passers, but neither offense plays with breakneck tempo, and both teams rank outside the top 30 in pace. Add in NC State’s third-down struggles and Notre Dame’s ability to bleed clock with its run game, and this sets up as a methodical, possession-heavy contest that stays under the number.
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