Nevada Wolf Pack vs. New Mexico Lobos Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 18, 2025
Use Code WWWC Both teams will be searching for their first Mountain West victory of the season when the Nevada Wolf Pack (1–5, 0–2 MW) travel to Albuquerque to face the New Mexico Lobos (3–3, 0–2 MW). New Mexico is favored in this game, although Nevada has won the last three head-to-head meetings, most recently beating New Mexico 34-24 in 2023.
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Bright have been hard to find
After opening the season with a blowout loss at Penn State, Nevada’s lone win came in a 20–17 victory over Sacramento State. The Wolf Pack have since dropped four straight, including a 44–10 home loss to San Diego State last week.
Nevada has struggled to find any offensive rhythm this season, averaging just 14.5 points per game, which ranks last among FBS programs. They are also averaging 309.5 total yards per game (124th nationally), including 149.0 passing yards (127th) and 160.5 rushing yards (64th). Quarterback Chubba Purdy, who is the brother of Brock Purdy and has spent time at both Florida State and Nebraska, leads the offense with 494 passing yards and 292 rushing yards, but has just one passing touchdown and eight interceptions, to go along with two rushing scores. However, Purdy was benched for true freshman Carter Jones, who completed 16 of 32 for 177 yards with one TD and two picks last week against San Diego State.
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Defensively, Nevada has been more competitive, allowing 379.0 total yards per game (84th in FBS). The Wolf Pack are giving up 229.7 yards through the air (82nd) and 149.3 yards on the ground (77th), but opponents are averaging 28.7 points per contest (99th).
Lobos coming off another loss
New Mexico’s offense has shown flashes of explosiveness this season, but defensive inconsistency and turnovers continue to be major issues. The Lobos are coming off a 41–25 loss to Boise State on Saturday, Oct. 11, where they were outgained 397 to 231 in total yards and lost the turnover battle 3-0.
Quarterback Jack Layne completed just 7 of 17 passes (41.2%) for 115 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Running back Damon Bankston was limited to 18 yards on nine carries but added two receptions for 52 yards and also had a touchdown on a 100-yard kickoff return. Dorian Thomas led the receiving corps with four catches for 61 yards and a touchdown.
For the season, New Mexico is averaging 369.2 total yards per game (80th in FBS) and 29.2 points per game (66th). The Lobos’ passing attack ranks 67th nationally at 232.3 yards per game, while the ground game sits 93rd with 136.8 yards per contest. Layne has completed 66.7% of his passes for 1,277 yards with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. Bankston leads the rushing attack with 307 yards and three touchdowns, while Keagan Johnson is the top receiver with 31 catches for 364 yards and two scores, and tight-end Dorian Thomas has 32 catches for 348 yards and four touchdowns.
Defensively, the Lobos have not been great, allowing 392.0 yards per game (99th in FBS). The pass defense ranks 126th nationally at 265.3 yards per game, while the run defense has been more solid, allowing 126.7 yards (47th). New Mexico is giving up 27.0 points per game, ranking 90th.
Nevada Wolf Pack at New Mexico Lobos Predictions
Against the spread pick for Nevada vs. New Mexico:
- New Mexico -11.5 (4 units)
Going back to last season, Nevada has failed to reach the 20-point mark in its last eight games against FBS opponents—and that includes managing just 21 points against FCS member Sacramento State earlier this year. The Wolf Pack may have hit rock bottom in last week’s loss to San Diego State, a game that was even more lopsided than the final score indicated. Nevada trailed 35-0 at halftime and 44-0 after three quarters, at home.
After back-to-back losses, I expect New Mexico to rise up at home against an inferior opponent.
Total Prediction for Nevada vs. New Mexico
- Under 49.5 (4 units)
On offense, New Mexico ranks 61st nationally in plays per second, while Nevada sits 102nd in seconds per play and 115th in total offense. Sustaining drives could be a challenge for both teams. Last week, only three of the five touchdowns Nevada allowed were scored by the opposing offense, and New Mexico also had a non-offensive touchdown. Nevada has gone under in four of their last five games and their quarterback situation doesn't make things any brighter in terms of putting up points.
I’ll take the under, with a projected final score of New Mexico 31, Nevada 14.
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