New Mexico Bowl: North Texas vs. San Diego State, Picks, Odds, Preview, and Prediction, Saturday, December 27, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Bowl season continues through the Holiday period on Saturday, Dec. 27. Read the New Mexico Bowl, North Texas vs San Diego State prediction along with other NCAAF Betting Picks. The Mean Green are 11-2 and are coming off a close conference title loss to Tulane. North Texas has one of the best passing offenses in the nation and teams have struggled to slow the down. San Diego State ended the year with a 9-3 record and they tied for the top spot in the Mountain West. These two teams are two of the best on the Group of Five circuit and will kick-off will commence at 5:45 P.M. EST.
North Texas on 7-game bowl game losing streak
North Texas is 11-2 overall this season. The Mean Green are the No. 25 team in the nation. North Texas finished with a 7-1 record in the American Athletic Conference. The successful season saw them face No. 20 Tulane in the conference championship game. Tulane edged North Texas 34-21 to take the title and eventual spot in the College Football Playoffs.
The Mean Green have lost seven straight bowl games. The team's last bowl win came in 2013 and they will try to accomplish this feat with an interim head coach.
North Texas head coach Eric Morris left the team after the season for the Oklahoma State position. Interim head coach Drew Svoboda will lead the team out of the tunnel with the full roster.
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The roster is highlighted by quarterback Drew Mestemaker. He threw for 4,129 yards, which is the best mark in college football. He also threw for 31 touchdown passes, which ranked second in the country. He was named the AAC Offensive Player of the Year for his efforts.
"I just go at it every day and give it my best shot," Mestemaker said. "That was my mentality when I first got here, showing up as quarterback five or six. I had to grind my way up every day.”
Caleb Hawkins balances out the roster with 1,236 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns. Wyatt Young has been great this year, too. He has 1,209 yards and 10 touchdowns.
On defense, Ethan Wesloski has a team-high 104 tackles. Keviyan Henderson has a team-high five sacks on the season. The defense has also forced 25 turnovers on the year.
North Texas is averaging 44.8 points per game, which is the best mark in the nation. They are passing 323.2 passing yards per game, places them third-best. The Mean Green are also the 43rd best rush offense averaging 181.1 rush yards per game.
On defense, North Texas is allowing 24.9 points per game, which ranks 70th in the country. They are the ninth-best pass defense surrendering 163.2 yards per game through the air. The Mean Green are also allowing 207.2 rush yards per game, which ranks 127th.
North Texas is 10-3 against the spread this season. The Mean Green have been favored in every game this season. They are 4-2 against the spread as a single-digit favorite. They are also 4-2 against the spread on a neutral or road field. The over is 9-4 when North Texas has played this season. The over is 4-2 when they have been single-digit favorites.
San Diego State missing starting quarterback
San Diego State is 9-3 overall this season. The Aztecs finished tied for first place in the Mountain West Conference with a 6-2 record. But, they missed out on playing in the conference title game due to tiebreakers with two other Mountain West foes. The team’s three losses came against Washington State, Hawaii and New Mexico all on the road.
San Diego State will play without starting quarterback Jayden Donegal. The quarterback underwent shoulder surgery after the regular season. It’s a key abscence for the Aztecs. He threw for 1,807 yards with nine touchdowns and eight picks.
In Donegal’s place, Bert Emanuel Jr. will get the starting nod. This is his first season with San Diego State after transferring from Central Michigan. Emanuel has made very few appearances this year. He’s tossed just nine passes and has rushed for a total of 102 yards on 22 carries. He has not recorded a touchdown on the year.
Another big change for San Diego State comes on the defensive end of the ball. The team’s defensive coordinator Rob Aurich departed the team and has joined Nebraska. Demetrius Sumler has taken his place, he was the Aztec’s passing game and cornerbacks coach.
“He has a great football mind, develops relationships, connects with everyone in the building and has produced undeniable results,” San Diego State head coach Sean Lewis said.
It’s been a big season for Lucky Sutton, who leads the team with 1,237 rushing yards. He also has a team-high 10 touchdowns on the year, too.
San Diego State’s defense has been the team’s rock on the year. San Diego State had the best passing defense in the Mountain West. San Diego State has allowed 10 points or less in eight of their nine wins this year.
Owen Chambliss leads the team with 105 tackles on the season. Trey White and Ryan Henderson has a team-high seven sacks each on the season. The defense has also forced 16 turnovers with 13 of them coming via interception.
San Diego State is averaging 153.7 yards per game, which ranks 125th. They are the 32nd ranked rushing offense averaging 188.1 yards per game. The Aztecs are also averaging 24.7 points per game, placing them 90th overall.
On defense, San Diego State is allowing 12.6 points per game, which is the fourth-best mark in the nation. They have the fifth-best passing defense allowing 157 yards per game. The Aztecs are also giving up 110.1 rush yards per game, which ranks 20th.
San Diego State is 9-3 against the spread this season. They are 3-3 against the spread when playing away from home. The Aztecs are 1-1 against the spread, when they have been underdogs. The under is 9-3 when San Diego State has played this year. The under is 4-1 when they have played on the road. The under is 2-0 when the total has been placed at 50 points or more.
North Texas Mean Green vs San Diego State Aztecs Picks
North Texas vs San Diego State Spread Pick
- North Texas Mean Green -5 (5 units)
There’s going to be new faces making impacts in the New Mexico Bowl as changes continue to sweep college football including North Texas and San Diego State. The Mean Green are without their head coach, who moved to Oklahoma State, but they will have quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who thew for the most yards in the nation and the second-most touchdowns. North Texas' offense is elite regardless of who is coaching. San Diego State lost their defensive coordinator, which could be key as they were one of the best defensive units. The big problem with the Aztecs is that they won’t have their starting quarterback due to injury. A new quarterback could cause problems for an offense that was already not very efficinet in pushing the ball down the field and scoring passing touchdowns.
Take North Texas to cover.
North Texas vs San Diego State Over/Under Pick
- Under 53 (5 units)
There are a few reasons why this will be a low scoring game in the New Mexico Bowl. San Diego State's defense is one of the best in the country against the pass. They rank fifth-best in the nation in yards allowed through the air. North Texas has lost their head coach and continuity could be a big problem. San Diego State is also starting a new quarterback, which will cause the Aztecs to struggle with flow, too. Expect a jumbled few possessions with a ton of possessions ending in punts. The under is 4-1 when San Diego State has played on the road. The under is 2-0 when the total has been placed at 50 points or more for the Aztecs, too.
Take the under on Saturday.
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