New Mexico Lobos vs. Boise State Broncos Picks and Prediction for Saturday, October 11, 2025

The Boise State Broncos (3-2) will look to continue its historic dominance over the New Mexico Lobos (3-2) when the teams meet Saturday night on the blue turf in Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos have won seven straight in the series, including a commanding 42-14 victory in Boise on November 11, 2023.

Check out the New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NCAAF Picks

Lobos coming off a loss

The New Mexico’s offense has been explosive at times, but the team is also dealing with defensive inconsistency. New Mexico is coming off a 35–28 loss at San José State. The Lobos were out gained 491 to 420 in total yards for the game, but also lost the turnover battle 3-0.

New Mexico averages 396.8 total yards per game and 30.0 points, ranking 56th in offensive efficiency according to the Football Power Index. Their passing game (242.4 yards per game) has complemented a balanced rushing attack (154.4 yards). Quarterback Jack Layne threw three interceptions last week, but has completed 69.5% of his passes this season for 1,162 yards with seven touchdowns and six interceptions. The turnovers have been costly to the Lobos as they rank 125th nationally with 11 giveaways.

On defense, New Mexico remains vulnerable, particularly against the pass. Opponents are averaging 271.2 yards through the air, ranking the Lobos 126th in FBS pass defense. The run defense (119.8 yards per game) has held firm, but the lack of takeaways and inconsistency in coverage have put pressure on their offense to keep pace.

Boise State coming off trip to Notre Dame

The Broncos fell 28–7 at Notre Dame last week, but before that, they erupted for 47 points against Appalachian State and 49 versus Air Force. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has led a balanced attack ranked 38th in offensive efficiency, averaging 479 yards and 32.2 points per game. Madsen is completing 60.1% of his passes for 1,344 yards with nine TDs and five picks. He also had two rushing scores.

Boise’s offensive line has paved the way for a deep stable of backs, including Dylan Riley (393 yards), Sire Gaines (284 yards), and Malik Sherrod (204 yards), giving the Broncos several effective rushing options.

Defensively, Boise State remains solid but not as dominant as in past years. The Broncos allow 350.4 yards per game, ranking 60th nationally, but their biggest weakness is run containment (164.2 yards allowed, 102nd). The secondary, anchored by Ty Benefield (41 tackles, 1 INT), has been steady, giving up only 186.2 passing yards on average.

New Mexico Lobos vs Boise State Broncos predictions

Side Pick for New Mexico vs. Boise State

• New Mexico +16 (4 units)

New Mexico’s only double-digit loss this season came in the opener at Michigan, 34–17. Since then, the Lobos have looked sharper offensively and shown enough balance to hang around against solid teams. Boise State’s run defense has been shaky, and with New Mexico finding a better rhythm through the air, the Lobos have the tools to stay within two touchdowns, even if an outright upset is unlikely.

Total Prediction for New Mexico vs. Boise State

• Over 59.5 (4 units)

Boise State has reached 47 points in three of its last four games and will be facing a New Mexico defense that is 99th in the country in yards per play allowed. On the other side, the Boise State defense has struggled as well, ranking 90th in defensive yards per play allowed. New Mexico has scored at least 28 points in every game since losing at Michigan to open the season. Boise State’s pace and multi-back attack should push the tempo, while New Mexico’s offense can exploit the Broncos’ run defense. Expect a high-scoring back-and-forth game that exceeds the total.