New Mexico Lobos vs San Jose State Spartans Prediction and Picks - October 3rd, 2025
Use Code WWWC College Football action on Friday evening, and we have a New Mexico Lobos vs San Jose State Prediction ready to go. Sam Houston State comes in off a 55-0 shellacking at the hands of the Texas Longhorns to fall to 0-4 on the season. New Mexico (3-1) comes in off a 38-20 home win over New Mexico State for its 3rd win in a row. San Jose State comes in off a tough 30-29 loss at Stanford, which dropped them to 1-3 on the year. These teams last met back in 2023, and San Jose State won that game 52-24 on the road. Can New Mexico get revenge for that? Read on to see our New Mexico Lobos vs San Jose State prediction.
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Lobos Crush In-State Rival New Mexico State
New Mexico enters Week 6 riding a three-game win streak, most recently dispatching in-state rival New Mexico State 38–20. Quarterback Jack Layne was nearly flawless, completing 76.7% of his passes for 303 yards and four touchdowns. The Lobos controlled the tempo with 476 total yards on 69 plays, including 132 rushing yards split between backs Scottre Humphrey and Damon Bankston. Defensively, they stifled the Aggies’ ground game, allowing just 15 rushing yards on 30 attempts. The secondary gave up 289 passing yards but held firm in the red zone, limiting explosive plays and forcing long drives.
Heading into their Friday night clash at CEFCU Stadium, the Lobos will look to maintain their offensive rhythm and capitalize on San Jose State’s defensive vulnerabilities. Layne has thrown for 818 yards and seven touchdowns this season, supported by a balanced rushing attack led by Humphrey (263 yards, 3 TDs) and Bankston (238 yards, 2 TDs). Tight end Dorian Thomas has emerged as a reliable target, hauling in 24 catches for 247 yards and three scores. New Mexico’s defense ranks 55th nationally in scoring (21.5 PPG allowed), with a strong run-stopping unit that’s giving up just 111.5 yards per game on the ground.
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The Lobos will be tested by San Jose State’s high-volume passing attack, but their edge in time of possession (32:48 per game) and red zone defense (80% stop rate) could tilt the field. New Mexico’s pass defense has been leaky at times, surrendering 255.5 yards per game, so pressure on Spartans QB Walker Eget will be key. Expect Layne to challenge a secondary that ranks 126th in passing yards allowed, while the Lobos’ front seven aims to disrupt rhythm and force turnovers.
Spartans Off A Heartbreaking Loss
San Jose State returns home after a heartbreaking 30–29 loss to Stanford, where they nearly pulled off the upset behind a monster performance from quarterback Walker Eget. Eget threw for 473 yards and three touchdowns on 62.1% passing, showcasing his arm talent and chemistry with receivers Kyri Shoels (10 catches, 147 yards, 1 TD) and Danny Scudero (33 catches, 520 yards, 3 TDs on the season). Despite the aerial fireworks, the Spartans struggled to run the ball, managing just 37 yards on 26 attempts. Their defense was gashed for 444 passing yards and failed to generate key stops late.
Now facing a surging New Mexico squad, the Spartans will lean heavily on Eget to carry the offense. He leads the Mountain West in passing yards (1,191) but has been inconsistent, completing just 57.3% of his throws with six touchdowns and three interceptions. Jabari Bates remains the lead back but has been bottled up recently, averaging just 64 yards per game. San Jose State’s red zone offense has been a major concern, converting only 66.7% of trips into points—ranking dead last in the FBS. Defensively, they’re allowing 422 yards per game, including 277 through the air, and rank 100th in scoring defense (28.0 PPG allowed).
The Spartans will need to tighten up their coverage and find a way to slow down Layne’s efficient passing attack. Their defensive third-down percentage is solid (28.6%), but they’ve struggled to maintain consistency across four quarters. With New Mexico’s run game capable of grinding out drives, San Jose State’s defensive front must win early downs and force Layne into obvious passing situations. If Eget can replicate his Stanford performance and avoid turnovers, the Spartans have the firepower to keep pace—but they’ll need a breakthrough on the ground to balance the attack.
New Mexico Lobos vs San Jose State Pick
New Mexico Lobos vs San Jose State Spread Pick
- San Jose State -2.5 (5 Units)
San Jose State -2.5 offers value in a matchup where quarterback Walker Eget’s arm talent could be the difference. The Spartans are coming off a near-upset of Stanford, where Eget threw for 473 yards and three touchdowns, and now face a New Mexico defense that’s allowing 255.5 passing yards per game. While the Lobos have been efficient offensively, they’ve yet to face a passing attack as aggressive or vertical as San Jose State’s. With Kyri Shoels and Danny Scudero stretching the field, the Spartans should find favorable matchups against a secondary that’s struggled to contain explosive plays. San Jose State’s third-down defense (28.6% conversion rate allowed) also gives them a chance to control tempo and force Layne into longer drives.
Historically, San Jose State has been a strong bet in this spot, going 8–1 against the spread in games immediately preceding their matchup with Wyoming. That trend suggests they often peak in focus and execution before facing their Mountain West rival. The Lobos, while riding a three-game win streak, have benefited from weaker competition and haven’t faced a quarterback with Eget’s volume or arm strength. If the Spartans can generate even modest production on the ground to keep New Mexico honest, their passing game should thrive. Laying the short number at home, especially with a proven ATS trend and a high-ceiling offense, makes San Jose State a compelling side.
New Mexico Lobos vs San Jose State Over/Under Pick
- Over 58.5 (4 Units)
The Over 58 looks enticing given the offensive profiles and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. San Jose State is coming off a 473-yard passing performance from Walker Eget, and they’ve shown a willingness to push tempo and attack vertically. New Mexico, meanwhile, has scored 30+ points in three straight games and is averaging 32.8 points per contest. Jack Layne’s efficiency—76.7% completion rate last week—combined with a balanced rushing attack gives the Lobos multiple scoring avenues. Both teams rank outside the top 100 in passing defense, and neither has consistently generated pressure or turnovers, which sets the stage for sustained drives and explosive plays.
Additionally, both teams lean heavily on their quarterbacks to generate offense, which increases the likelihood of quick possessions and chunk plays. Walker Eget leads the Mountain West in passing yards, while Jack Layne is coming off a four-touchdown performance with a 76.7% completion rate. Neither defense has consistently pressured the quarterback, and both rank in the bottom third nationally in explosive play prevention. With two capable signal-callers, shaky pass coverage, and limited pass rush, this matchup profiles as a shootout where 60+ points is a realistic expectation.
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