New Mexico Lobos vs. UCLA Bruins Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 12th, 2025
The New Mexico Lobos (1-1, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U) take on the UCLA Bruins (0-2, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U) in a non-conference battle in week three on Friday evening, and we have the prediction. The Lobos are 1-1 after a win against Idaho State last week. The Bruins are searching for their first win after a defeat against UNLV in their previous matchup.
Can UCLA break out after two defeats with a dominating home win on Friday? Check out the Lobos vs. Bruins prediction. Do you need a boost in your handicapping? Try our NCAAF Picks
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New Mexico Records First Win
The New Mexico Lobos are targeting their second win of the season. New Mexico is in a rebuilding season, but could surprise based on the results in the first two games. In week one, they had a daunting task on the road against Michigan. The squad was competitive in a 34-17 defeat in a clash that had the Lobos as huge 35-point dogs. Next, the Lobos posted a 32-22 home win against Idaho State but did not cover the big 17.5-point spread. They were voted to finish 11th in the MWC preseason poll.
New Mexico has a new QB in Jack Layne. The junior QB spent last season with Idaho, where he posted just under 1500 passing yards. Layne has been subpar, posting 155 yards last week, and has managed 363 passing yards and a 1:3 TD to INT ratio on the year. Scottie Humphrey is another new transfer. The junior RB enjoyed a monster season with Montana State last year, recording just 1390 yards. He has been a mammoth threat, rushing for 174 yards in two games. Dorian Thomas has been outstanding. The sophomore tight end had no issues against the Wolverines' defense in the opener and has brought in 127 receiving yards in two games. Damon Bankston has 76 receiving yards. The New Mexico offense has averaged 319 yards in two games.
The Lobos' defense is a work in progress. They lost many key starters from last season and have a new defensive coordinator. It could take some time to find a groove. The Lobos are relying on transfers. They brought in an established safety, Tavian Combs, who has made 11 tackles in two games. The Lobos have conceded an average of 419 yards in two games. The pass defense is ranked 106th, while the rush defense is 96th.
New Mexico averaged 33.5 points last year and 24.5 points after two games, ranking them 90th. The Lobos yielded an average of 38 points and 28 points after two games this season, positioning them 105th.
UCLA Searching for First Win
The UCLA Bruins are desperately searching for their first win of the season. They opened the season with a rough one. They were pelted with a 43-10 home loss against a ranked Utah squad. They were 6.5-point dogs in that one. If that game was any indication, it could be a tough season for the Bruins once conference play is here. The Bruins had another tough opponent last week. They were dealt a 30-23 road defeat against UNLV in a clash that had the Bruins marked as the 1.5-point favorites.
UCLA has a potent young QB in Nico Imaleava. The sophomore spent last season with Tennessee, where he delivered strong numbers, registering 2616 passing yards and a 19:8 TD to INT ratio. Imaleava struggled in the opener against Utah and was a lot better in the defeat last week, amassing 255 passing yards. He has reported 391 passing yards and a 2:2 TD to INT ratio in two games.
The offense has a solid RB in Jaivian Thomas. The junior RB posted 626 yards last year with California. He has amassed 60 rushing yards in two games. UCLA lost several key receivers but is expecting a big season from Anthony Woods. The junior RB recorded 1131 passing yards with Idaho last season, and has registered 63 yards this season. Kwazi Gilmer leads the squad with 118 receiving yards. The UCLA offense has only averaged 324 yards per game in two games.
The Bruins' defense is decent. They lost their top two linebackers from last season, but compensated by adding transfers. A good portion of the secondary was revamped in the offseason. They brought in defensive backs Andre Jordan Jr. on a transfer from Oregon State, as well as Bryon Threats. The Bruins' defense gave up 492 yards in the opener and was better last week, conceding 354 yards. The pass defense is marked 72nd, while the rush defense is near the bottom at 125th.
UCLA scored an average of 18.4 points in 2024 and 16.5 points after two games, rating them 120th. The Bruins kept opponents to 25.2 points last year and have squandered an average of 36.5 points in two games, placing them 122nd.
New Mexico Lobos vs. UCLA Bruins Pick
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Earle Sports Bets | +2,298.00 |
| 2 |  Ross Benjamin | +1,840.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vincilleti | +1,757.00 |
| 4 |  David Hess | +1,745.00 |
| 5 |  Dan Kaiser | +987.00 |
Spread pick for New Mexico vs. UCLA
- UCLA Bruins -16 (5 units)
The New Mexico Lobos are not a contender in the MWC conference this season. They have a ton of new players and are relying on a transfer from Montana State at QB in Jack Layne. He has posted a 1:3 TD to INT ratio on the season. The UCLA Bruins are 0-2, but it’s been a daunting schedule playing against a ranked Utah squad and a road meeting against UNLV.
Furthermore, UCLA has a proven QB in Imaleava. He was the #1 QB for Tennessee last season and should have no problem racking up the passing yards against a Lobos' pass defense that was ranked 90th last year. It does not appear to have improved this season, considering they have surrendered an average of 258 passing yards per game, ranking them 105th. The Lobos were pegged 115th against the run last year and rated 96th after two games. This is key as UCLA has opted for the run nearly as much as the pass so far.
Over/Under Pick for New Mexico vs. UCLA
- Over 53 (5 units)
I expect a barrage of scoring. New Mexico has a quick offense. They ranked 25th in plays per game last year and are 12th in plays per game after two games. The offense has been a positive in the 0-2 start. They generated 17 points on the road against a good Wolverines defense and 32 points last week.
In addition, as mentioned, the Lobos' defense was horrendous last year, especially when containing the run. UCLA has a proven running back in Javian Thomas, who played for California last season. The UCLA offense rebounded with 428 total yards last week. The success will continue against a Lobos defense that surrendered nearly 400 yards against Idaho State, which does not even play in the FBS. The over is a convincing 7-3 in the Lobos' past 10 games.
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