New Mexico State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos Prediction and Picks – Saturday, September 27, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Rio Grande Rivalry renews on Saturday as New Mexico State (2-1) makes the short trip to Albuquerque to battle New Mexico (2-1) at University Stadium.
Kickoff is slated for noon ET, and this is one of college football’s oldest rivalries, dating back to 1894 with New Mexico holding a 74-35-5 edge.
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The Lobos are riding high after a stunning road upset of UCLA, while the Aggies are eager to bounce back following a setback against Louisiana Tech. Last year’s matchup was a shootout, with New Mexico prevailing 50-40 as a nine-point favorite, and history suggests more fireworks are likely.
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New Mexico State is coming off an embarrassing loss
New Mexico State opened the year by defeating Bryant 19-3 and edging Tulsa 21-14 at home. But their first road trip was humbling, as the Aggies were hammered 49-14 by Louisiana Tech in a game that exposed weaknesses on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback Logan Fife has carried the offense, throwing for 762 yards and five touchdowns, but has also tossed three interceptions while completing just over 54% of his passes. The Aggies’ rushing attack has been virtually nonexistent, ranking 136th (last) in the FBS with only 48 yards per game. Running back Dijon Stanley leads the team with 57 yards, and no consistent ground threat has emerged to balance the passing game. Wideout PJ Johnson III has been a bright spot, producing 211 yards and two touchdowns through three contests.
Defensively, New Mexico State has struggled against the run, giving up 194.7 yards per game to rank 123rd nationally. The Aggies are also near the bottom in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert at a 45.3% clip. Discipline has been another problem, with the team averaging 73.3 penalty yards per contest, one of the highest rates in the nation.
Despite the shortcomings, New Mexico State’s defense has been strong in the red zone, ranking 13th nationally by allowing scores on just two-thirds of opponent trips. That bend-but-don’t-break approach will be critical if they want to compete against a Lobos offense that ranks 128th in red zone efficiency.
New Mexico made a statement against UCLA
New Mexico enters this matchup with momentum after a stunning 35-10 road win over UCLA, where the Lobos dominated both lines of scrimmage. The program opened the year with a 34-17 loss at Michigan but has since rebounded with back-to-back wins over Idaho State and the Bruins.
The Lobos are balanced on offense, averaging 362.7 yards per game. Quarterback Jack Layne has been serviceable, throwing for 515 yards and three touchdowns while completing two-thirds of his passes. Turnovers have been an issue, as he has also thrown three interceptions. The real spark has come from the running game, led by Scottre Humphrey, who has rushed for 222 yards and three scores at 6.5 yards per carry. Against UCLA, Damon Bankston added a breakout performance with 154 yards and a touchdown, showcasing the backfield’s depth. Tight-end Dorian Thomas has been Layne's leading target with 168 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
New Mexico State Aggies vs New Mexico Lobos Predictions
ATS Pick for New Mexico State vs. New Mexico
- New Mexico State +14 (4 units)
New Mexico enters as a two-touchdown favorite, and on paper, the Lobos look like the stronger team after a statement win at UCLA. However, rivalry games have a way of leveling the playing field, and the Rio Grande Rivalry has been no exception. The underdog has covered the spread in eight of the last 10 meetings, including last season when New Mexico State stayed within the number despite losing 50-40 as a nine-point underdog.
The Aggies have clear flaws, particularly in the run game and discipline with penalties, but their passing attack should find opportunities against a Lobo secondary allowing more than 240 yards per game. Meanwhile, New Mexico’s own offensive limitations in the red zone could make it difficult to pull away. The Lobos may win, but history suggests this line is inflated. Expect the Aggies to play with pride coming off the loss to Louisiana Tech, and possibly some overconfidence on the New Mexico side.
I like the dog to cover.
Total Prediction for New Mexico State vs. New Mexico
- Over 54.5 (4 units)
Seven of the last 10 Rio Grande Rivalry games have gone over the number, and last year’s 50-40 shootout is a reminder of how quickly these contests can escalate.
New Mexico has shown it can score against quality competition, dropping 35 on UCLA and averaging 28 points per game overall. New Mexico State’s defense has been vulnerable against the run and ranks outside the top 100 nationally, which should give the Lobos plenty of scoring chances. At the same time, the Aggies’ passing game is capable of producing chunk plays, and because they cannot run the ball, don't expect them to take much time off the clock with long possessions.
Take the over.
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