New Mexico State vs. Tennessee Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 15, 2025
Use Code WWWC New Mexico State Aggies (3-6) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (6-3)
Week 12 of the 2025 college football season has arrived, and in this preview, we are breaking down Saturday’s non-conference clash from Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, TN, to get you the New Mexico State vs. Tennessee prediction.
The Aggies meet the Volunteers for the first time ever. Tennessee is a massive 40.5-point home fave, while the total sits at 61.5 points. The kick-off is set at 4:15 PM ET, so let’s take a closer look at this New Mexico State vs. Tennessee prediction, one of our NCAAF picks for Week 12.
New Mexico is on a four-game losing streak
The New Mexico State Aggies (3-6; 4-5 ATS; 3-6 O/U) started the season with consecutive home wins over Bryant 19-3 and Tulsa 21-14. Since then, the Aggies have gone 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS. They are winless in four straight outings.
Last week, the Aggies suffered a 24-21 home loss against Kennesaw State. They held the Owls scoreless in the second half, but failed to force overtime, as Ryann Hawk missed a 50-yard field goal with 32 seconds left on the clock.
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Senior QB Logan Fife threw for 241 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions against Kennesaw State. Junior RB Dijon Stanley rushed 10 times for 61 yards and a touchdown, while junior WR Donovan Faupel caught four passes for 27 yards and two touchdowns.
The Aggies heavily lean on their passing game, and Fife has tossed for 2,074 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions so far this season. New Mexico State is dead last in the country in rushing yards (69.1 per game).
Faupel leads the receiving corps with 43 catches for 503 yards and five touchdowns. The Aggies score 21.3 points per game (tied for 11th in the country) and allow 25.2 points in return (tied for 75th). Their defense is 77th in rushing yards (148.8 per game) and 109th in passing yards (245.8).
Tennessee looks for a bounce-back display
The No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers (6-3; 4-5 ATS; 7-2 O/U) are coming off a bye. They’ve dropped two of their previous three contests, sandwiching a 56-34 road victory over Kentucky with a pair of losses at Alabama 37-20 and to Oklahoma 33-27.
Last time out, the Vols lost to the Sooners as 3-point home favorites. Tennessee outgained Oklahoma 456-351 in total yards, but the Vols lost the turnover battle 3-2. Senior signal-caller Joey Aguilar threw for 393 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions, and the Vols racked up just 63 yards on 35 carries.
“We didn't handle Oklahoma's defense well enough,” Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said. “Some of the pressures were a little different from past games. We got beat a couple times.”
The Volunteers rank third in the country in scoring offense (43.6 points per game), 49th in rushing offense (174.8), and second in passing offense (329.3). Aguilar has thrown for a staggering 2,737 yards, 21 touchdowns, and eight interceptions, while junior WR Chris Brazzell II has caught 49 passes for 808 yards and eight touchdowns.
On the other side of the ball, Tennessee has struggled all season. The Volunteers surrender 31.1 points per game (114th in the country) on 141.6 rushing yards (59th) and 254.3 passing yards (117th).
LB Tyler Martinez (lower body) is out.
New Mexico State vs. Tennessee Pick
Spread Pick for New Mexico State vs. Tennessee
- Tennessee -40.5 (5 units)
The Volunteers’ playoff hopes might be dead following that home loss against Oklahoma. Anyway, the Vols need to show up and throttle the Aggies in Week 12 before they take on Florida and Vanderbilt in their final two games of the season.
The Aggies won’t be able to cope with the Vols’ offense. Tennessee has a terrific receiving corps and a tough offensive line, so I expect the Volunteers to drop a 50-burger on the Aggies. New Mexico State has allowed 30 or more points in each of its four showings on the road this season while playing much weaker teams than Tennessee.
Over/Under Pick for New Mexico State vs. Tennessee
- Over 61.5 (5 units)
The Volunteers have scored 56 or more points on three occasions this season. Three weeks ago, they scored 56 against Kentucky in conference play while tallying four touchdowns on the ground and three through the air.
The Vols might decide to rest some of their players when the Aggies visit, but Tennessee should still surpass a 50-point mark. The over has hit in 11 of Tennessee’s last 13 games overall. The Aggies will throw the ball all day long, and I expect them to add to the scoreboard. Give me the over.
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