New Mexico vs. Air Force Picks and Prediction for Saturday, November 22, 2025
Use Code WWWC New Mexico Lobos (7-3) vs. Air Force Falcons (3-7)
Week 13 of the 2025 college football season is here, and in this preview, we are breaking down the Mountain West Conference clash from Falcon Stadium at the USAF Academy in Colorado to get you the New Mexico vs. Air Force prediction.
Last season, the Lobos beat the Falcons 52-37 as 6.5-point home favorites to snap their five-game skid in this series. New Mexico is a 3.5-point road fave this time around, while the total sits at 54.5 points. The over has hit in 10 of the previous 11 encounters between these two schools.
Read more about this New Mexico vs. Air Force prediction, and check out all our NCAAF picks for Week 13. The kick-off at Falcon Stadium is set at 7:00 PM ET.
New Mexico eyes its fifth straight W
The New Mexico Lobos (7-3; 5-5 ATS; 5-5 O/U) started conference play with consecutive losses at San Jose State 35-28 and Boise State 41-25. Since then, the Lobos have won four straight contests against Nevada 24-22, Utah State 33-14, UNLV 40-35, and Colorado State 20-17.
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Last week, the Lobos barely outlasted Colorado State in front of the home fans. They failed to cover a 15.5-point spread but survived the scare to stay alive in the race for the MWC championship game. New Mexico outgained CSU 348-299 in total yards, with each team committing four turnovers.
Interestingly, junior QB Jack Layne didn’t turn the ball over last Saturday. He threw for 226 yards and rushed 10 times for 23 yards and a touchdown. Sophomore running back D.J. McKinney had 17 carries for 52 yards and a TD, while senior kicker Luke Drzewiecki made both of his field-goal attempts.
Layne has tossed for 2,166 yards, 12 touchdowns, and nine interceptions this season. McKinney and senior RB Damon Bankston have combined for 1,314 yards from scrimmage and 13 touchdowns, while senior WR Keagan Johnson has caught 50 passes for 638 yards and three touchdowns.
The Lobos score 29.2 points per game (61st in the country) and allow 25.0 points in return (tied for 72nd). Their defense is 17th in the country in rushing yards (105.8 per game) and 118th in passing yards (118th). Keep your eyes on defensive ends Brett Karhu and Keyshawn James-Newby, who have combined for 11.5 sacks and 18 tackles for loss this season.
Key Injuries for New Mexico:
- S T. Combs (undisclosed) is questionable. He has one pick and 53 tackles.
Air Force lost its starting QB
The Air Force Falcons (3-7; 4-6 ATS; 6-4 O/U) snapped their five-game streak in Week 8, outlasting Wyoming 24-21 at home. Since then, the Falcons have gone 1-2 SU and ATS, sandwiching a 26-16 victory over San Jose State with a pair of losses against Army 20-17 and UConn 26-16.
Last Saturday, Air Force outgained UConn 356-347 in total yards and won the turnover battle 1-0, but it wasn’t enough. Senior RB Dylan Carson led the way for the Falcons with 11 carries for 58 yards and two touchdowns, while junior RB Owen Allen rushed 22 times for 122 yards.
Sophomore QB Liam Szarka suffered an arm injury in the second quarter, so the Falcons turned to converted fullback Kemper Hodges, who went 4-of-8 for 32 yards while rushing 10 times for 62 yards. Szarka’s season is over, and the Falcons will probably start Hodges under center in Week 13.
With Szarka under center, the Falcons have been throwing the ball way more than usual. Across 10 games this season, Szarka has thrown for 1,294 yards, nine touchdowns, and five interceptions. He’s carried the pigskin 190 times for 922 yards and 13 touchdowns, so it’s fair to say that the Falcons just lost their best player.
The Falcons score 31.3 points per game (tied for 46th in the nation). They surrender 32.3 points in return (tied for 121st) on 171.8 rushing yards (tied for 104th) and 274.8 passing yards (131st). Junior LB Isaac Hubert leads the Falcons’ defensive unit with three sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss.
Key Injuries for Air Force:
- QB Liam Szarka (arm) is out. Leading rusher and passer.
- RB Kade Frew (undisclosed) is questionable.
New Mexico vs. Air Force Pick
Spread Pick for New Mexico vs. Air Force
- New Mexico -3.5 (5 units)
The Lobos’ run defense has been solid for most of the season. I think they are capable of slowing the Falcons’ triple-option scheme. Without Szarka, the Falcons might struggle to move the ball through the air, though Kemper Hodges was recruited as a 3-star quarterback.
On the other side, the Falcons have struggled to defend for most of the year. They’ve improved lately, but their secondary is still a huge issue. The Falcons’ pressure is weak, and the Lobos’ passing offense will make a difference in this game.
New Mexico’s ground game is strong, too. I doubt the Falcons’ chances of beating the line in this matchup.
Over/Under Pick for New Mexico vs. Air Force
- Under 54.5 (5 units)
During their five-game losing streak, the Falcons have yielded a whopping 227 points. But over their previous four showings, the Falcons have allowed 83 points. As I noted, their defense has improved, so I will go with the under in this game.
The Falcons will pound the rock all night and eat the clock. I don’t think they’ll be efficient against the Lobos’ run D. The Lobos will look for a balanced approach, but they have to defend well if they want to win this battle and remain in the race for the MWC championship game.
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