New Mexico vs Minnesota Picks and Prediction for Friday, December 26, 2025
Use Code WWWC The New Mexico Lobos play the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Friday in the Rate Bowl at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. New Mexico finished the regular season 9-3 and defeated San Diego State 23-17 in double overtime in the final game of the regular season. Minnesota finished the regular season 7-5 overall and defeated Wisconsin 17-7 in the final game. The Lobos finished tied for third in the Mountain West Conference, and Minnesota was tied for seventh in the Big Ten. Make sure to read this in-depth New Mexico Lobos vs Minnesota Golden Gophers prediction. Your ultimate guide to NCAAF excitement—don’t miss our free picks for the Rate Bowl: New Mexico vs. Minnesota prediction along with our other great free college football picks!
New Mexico’s key to success is its defense
The New Mexico Lobos scored an average of 27.9 points (69th) per game, but its defense was its key to success, holding opponents to just 22.5 points (48th) per game. New Mexico averaged 369.6 yards (88th) of total offense per game, while averaging 155.1 yards per game rushing and 214.5 yards per game passing. New Mexico's defense gave up an average of 349.4 yards (49th) per game, allowing 113.4 yards rushing and 236.0 yards passing per game.
Quarterback Jack Layne passed for 2,398 yards with 13 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Damon Bankston rushed for 578 yards to lead New Mexico, while D.J. McKinney had 454 yards rushing. Bankston and McKinney combined to score 12 rushing touchdowns. Keagan Johnson had 730 yards receiving to lead all receivers, and Dorian Thomas was second with 545 yards. Johnson and Thomas combined to catch seven touchdown passes. Linebacker Jaxton Eck was the leading tackler with 126, which was 58 more than any other teammate. New Mexico's defense had 33 sacks and intercepted nine passes.
Injuries: New Mexico has six players who are ruled out and seven others who are questionable. Four of the six players not playing are on the defense.
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Opt-outs: New Mexico’s DE Keyshawn James-Newby
Minnesota struggled to score, but its defense was solid
The Minnesota Golden Gophers scored an average of only 23.3 points (101st) per game and held opponents to only 23.4 points (57th) per game. Minnesota averaged 296.6 yards (128th) of total offense per game, while averaging 103.1 yards rushing and 193.5 yards passing per game. The defense held opponents to 342.3 yards (41st) per game, allowing 121.5 yards rushing and 220.8 yards passing per game.
Minnesota quarterback Drake Lindsey passed for 2,235 yards with 16 touchdowns and six interceptions. Darius Taylor was the leading rusher with 554 yards, and Fame Ijeboi was second with 441 yards, but Ijeboi has opted out, and Taylor may not play. Taylor and Ijeboi combined for five touchdowns on the ground. Le’Meke Brockington was the leading receiver with 484 yards, and Javon Tracy was second with 439 yards. Brockington declared for the NFL Draft and will likely not play. Brockington and Tracy combined for 10 touchdown receptions. Linebacker Maverick Baranowski was the leading tackler with 86. Minnesota's defense had 35 sacks and intercepted 8 passes.
Injuries: Minnesota has four players out and nine questionable. The most notable player out with an injury is RB A.J. Turner.
Opt-outs: RB Fame Ijeboli, Malachi Coleman, Kenric Lanier, and Le’Meke Brockington, while four others may not play.
Rate Bowl: New Mexico vs Minnesota Pick
Spread Pick for Rate Bowl: New Mexico vs Minnesota
- New Mexico Lobos +2 (4 units)
The New Mexico Lobos are a slight underdog (+2), but the Minnesota Golden Gophers will be without several of their skill position players. Minnesota's top two rushers are likely not to play, and leading receiver Le’Meke Brockington has declared for the NFL draft and will likely not suit up. New Mexico has a few players who have opted out or are injured, but not to the same extent as Minnesota. New Mexico's defense was tough this season, allowing just 22.5 points and 349.4 yards per game. Minnesota's offense, which is going to be short-handed, struggled during the regular season, averaging only 23.3 points per game, which was 101st, and was 128th in total yards at 296.6 per game. New Mexico covered the spread in four of its final five games of the regular season, is 5-1 ATS in its last six games played during December, and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog. Minnesota covered the spread in just seven of its final 10 games.
Over/Under Pick for Rate Bowl: New Mexico vs Minnesota
- Â Under 43.5 (4 units)
The Minnesota Golden Gophers are likely to be without their leading rusher, second leading rusher, and leading receiver. The total has finished under in five of New Mexico's last six games. During the regular season, New Mexico allowed an average of only 22.5 points per game, while Minnesota allowed an average of 23.4 points per game. The total finished under in four of Minnesota's last seven games, including its final game when just 24 points were scored in a 17-7 win over Wisconsin.
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