New Mexico vs. UNLV Odds, Picks, Preview, and Prediction, Saturday, November 1, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Saturday, the New Mexico Lobos will play the UNLV Rebels at Allegiant Stadium in Week 10 NCAAF action. The Rebels are four-point spread favorites, and the game total is 61.5 points scored. The Mountain West clash is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET.
This New Mexico vs. UNLV prediction highlights a Lobos squad building momentum off consecutive wins and a Rebels team that lost its first game of the season last week. Saturday's game marks the 28th all-time meeting between UNM and UNLV on the gridiron. The Rebels lead the series 15-12 and have won three straight games.
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Lobos' defense is stout against the run
New Mexico (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, and 4-4 O/U) dropped its first two Mountain West games, but responded with bounce-back victories over Nevada and Utah State.
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In the win over the Aggies, UNM jumped out to a 26-7 halftime lead and never relented. The Lobos outgained Utah State by over 100 total yards, rushing for 224 yards (5.3 YPC). They also dominated the time of possession, holding the football for over 16 more minutes than the Aggies.
Junior QB Jack Layne leads the New Mexico passing game with 1,598 yards and a 9:8 TD:INT ratio. He has completed 67.4 percent of his passing attempts, averaging 7.4 yards per pass. Layne's top receiving targets are sophomore TE Dorian Thomas (39 receptions for 423 yards and four TDs) and senior WR Keagan Johnson (39 receptions for 415 yards and two TDs). The Lobos feature three running backs who split the team's carries: senior Damon Bankston (71 carries for 410 yards and four TDs), junior Scottre Humphrey (74 carries for 346 yards and five TDs), and sophomore D.J. McKinney (67 carries for 293 yards and four TDs).
New Mexico scores 28.4 points per game (72nd) and averages 366.1 total yards (87th), including 218.9 passing yards (80th) and 147.3 rushing yards (78th). The Lobos' defense surrenders 26.3 points (85th) and 372.7 total yards (75th) per game, including 256.3 passing yards (113th) and 116.4 rushing yards (29th).
New Mexico Lobos Football Injury Report: OG Richard Pearce is questionable to play against UNLV.
Can UNLV bounce back at home?
UNLV (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS, and 4-3 O/U) lost 56-31 to the Broncos last weekend, ending its winless start to the season. The Rebels are now behind Boise State, San Diego State, and Hawai'i in the MWC standings.
UNLV and Boise State traded scores in the first half, but it was all BSU after halftime. The Broncos outscored the Rebels 28-7 in the second half, leading by a score of 56-24 with about five minutes remaining. Boise gained over 550 total yards, rushing for nearly 300 and passing for over 250. UNLV gained plenty of yards, but struggled to convert on third down (4-for-13).
Junior QB Anthony Colandrea, a transfer from Virginia, leads the Rebels' aerial attack with 1,618 yards, 12 touchdowns, and four interceptions. He has completed 66.8 percent of his passes, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt. The dual-threat has also rushed for 410 yards and four scores. Junior RB Jai'Den Thomas (83 carries for 615 yards and seven TDs) is UNLV's leading rusher, and senior WR Jaden Bradley (29 receptions for 528 yards and three TDs) is the Rebels' top pass-catcher.
UNLV scores 37.1 points per game (18th) and averages 447.1 total yards (27th), including 238.7 passing yards (62nd) and 208.4 rushing yards (20th). The Rebels' defense allows 33.4 points (125th) and 461.1 total yards (131st) per game, including 256.4 passing yards (114th) and 204.7 rushing yards (129th).
UNLV Rebels Football Injury Report: OL Reid Williams, DB Laterrance Welch, and DL Jalen Lee are questionable to play against New Mexico.
New Mexico vs. UNLV Pick and Preview
Spread Pick for New Mexico vs. UNLV
- Lobos +4 (5 Units)
This game could swing either way, and with New Mexico getting four points, I'll take the Lobos to cover. UNM has a dominant run game, and with three backs sharing the load, they have fresh legs all game. That's a scary thought for the UNLV defense, which has allowed the third-most opponent runs of 20-plus yards and 30-plus yards this season. The Rebels have struggled to get off the field without giving up points, too, ranking 123rd in points per quality drive allowed.
There's no denying that the UNLV offense can score in bunches, but its defense will prevent bettors from cashing a wager on the Rebels to cover the four-point spread.
Over/Under Pick for New Mexico vs. UNLV
- Over 61.5 (5 Units)
Bettors should expect plenty of points in Saturday's Mountain West battle in Las Vegas. The Lobos, who rank 15th in running plays of 40-plus yards and 24th in quality drive rate, will gash the Rebels for 250-plus rushing yards and find the end zone often. UNLV has also been able to run the football with ease this season, but could find it easier to move the chains through the air against UNM's porous pass defense. While the Lobos are stout against the run, they rank 114th in passing yards allowed and have only picked off four passes this year. The dual-threat Colandrea will keep the chains moving (33rd in third-down conversion percentage), wearing down the New Mexico defense.
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